Florida Weather

[NDG]

I am surprised we are not seeing more tornado warnings out of some of these cells this afternoon with some rotations noticed on radar.

[TheStormExpert]

Welocme to the 2016 Florida Rainy Season folks!


With Dewpoints being in the low/mid even upper 70's all day it seems the Flordia Rainy Season is underway.

[NDG]

Over 2" of rain in my neighborhood this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Yes rainy season but the pattern still looks quite El-Nino like as these strong shortwaves traverse east in the westerlies.

[TheStormExpert]

Nice little hook echo in western rural Broward County several hours ago just west of Coral Springs and Sunrise.

[TheStormExpert]

Possible Tornado just west of Port Saint Lucie/Fort Pierce earlier this afternoon.

[NDG]

Over 2" of rain in my neighborhood this afternoon.

I take that back, it was 4" of rain that j got this afternoon and evening.

[psyclone]

I got a trace.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed, my wish earlier this week apparently has been granted by the weather gods. Yesterday 2.7 inches of rain fell here through midnight, so yeah, the rainy season has finally kicked off after a very dry first half of May here in Jax. It was very welcomed relief as the lawn was getting brown.

[NDG]

Here's a video I took of the monsoon like nonstop rains we got between 5:30 & 9 PM.

[TheStormExpert]

Another stormy afternoon along the SE Florida Coastline with most of the action being in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like an eddy of low pressure in the Florida straits.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like an eddy of low pressure in the Florida straits.

Shows up nicely just west of Dry Tortugas and Key West on the Satellite/Radar Composite.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks to ex-Bonnie still spinning over Eastern SC, we continue to be in the subsident air on the southwest side of the decaying cyclone. We have had a beautiful, albeit hot and dry holiday weekend here in Northeast Florida. Temps reached 91.3 degrees at my home yesterday and expected to be about that again today. We are now in a stretch of 7 consecutive days without any measurable rainfall here. Also beginning to get dry again. We need rain soon. This week looks mostly dry here, but rain prospects look better long range. The models are bringing tropical moisture in from the Caribbean and GOM across the peninsula possibly late this week into the next weekend.

[northjaxpro]

Well, it looks like things are really going to begin to go downhill quickly across the Florida peninsula later this upcoming weekend through the early part of next week as the potential of a developing tropical cyclone looms big. I think using this thread for the NWS WFO AFDs across the state and local reports will prove quite useful in the coming days leading into next week.

So, to my fellow Storm2K ers across the peninsula, it looks to be a very interesting situation for this next 5-7 day period.

[RL3AO]

I just realized I can participate in here for the next couple months. I'm excited to have a place to complain about afternoon thunderstorms!

[gatorcane]

I just realized I can participate in here for the next couple months. I'm excited to have a place to complain about afternoon thunderstorms!

Welcome and happy venting!

[northjaxpro]

Below are the projected rainfall totals by WPC through 12Z Wednesday morning, 6/8/16. These projections are following along a swath of heavy rainfall right along the I-4 corridor, which is the anticipated track 93L/Colin is forecast to take during the day on Tuesday. Right now 6-8 inches of rainfall are forecasted along the I-4 corridor, with a near 8" bullseye over Tampa Bay. Meanwhile an average of 3-6 inches of rainfall are projected across portions of North and north Central peninsula, and also down across the Southern peninsula. Now, any deviation of the Low track could shift the heaviest rain north or southward. Thankfully, this system should get picked up by the upper trough, which will be positioned down into the Central GOM by Tuesday. The trough should carry 93L/Colin quickly across the peninsula on Tuesday and hopefully prevent a massive flood event, which occurred with Debby in 2012.

Nevertheless, a significant rain event in store for much of the peninsula during the next 96 hours.

[northjaxpro]

The Tallahassee NWS mets calling for average 2-3" rainfall totals for thw Monday-Tuesday period, but possible 3-5" in the area of the SE Big Bend over in the Apalachee Bay region.


Meanwhile, on Sunday an area of low pressure is forecast to emerge
from the Yucatan peninsula, into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC has given this system a 70% chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone within the next 5 days. The forecast for this system is
complicated by the former of the low pressure systems mentioned
above. As the core of the northern stream low moves through the
northeastern quadrant of the country, it will loosely merge with
the low over Texas and result in an elongated trough over the
southeastern CONUS. The trough will likely introduce some enhanced
shear over the western part of the approaching tropical cyclone,
favoring more robust/persistent convection over the eastern half
of the storm. Most global and hires models are in decent agreement
with the idea that the cyclone will be quite asymmetrical. This
of course could have a significant impact on the eventual track of
the low. While models are split on just how far north or west the
cyclone will track initially, they all seem to pull the system
east pretty quickly under convection on the eastern periphery of
the storm. At this time, the local forecast will be for the low to
track across the northern peninsula of Florida sometime Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This would result in the heaviest rain
over our southeast Big Bend counties and across north-central
Florida. Reasonable average rainfall amounts over the southeast
Big Bend could be around 2-3", keeping in mind that an area of
3-5" could be displaced just southeast of our Big Bend counties.
However, both of the above advertised amounts are not expected to
result in any flooding concerns. A secondary concern could be some
minor coastal flooding across the Big Bend, though this is HIGHLY
dependent on what is currently an uncertain track of the yet to
develop low. In the wake of the low there is decent consensus
that rapid drying will occur, with a mostly dry day on Tuesday
under the current forecast.

[northjaxpro]

The current projections for Northeast Florida area by NWS Jax office is calling for localized amounts in excess of 2 inches, with the potential of 3-5 inches, with of course everything hinging on the exact track of the system.