Texas Fall 2013

[aggiecutter]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is starting to feel like a giant bust outside of the Panhandle and High Plains.

Looking at the 12z GFS(it should have a handle on things now) it appears that the main moisture axis will be along and east of I-35. Looks like the coastal low will rob most of the moisture from points west of there.

NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster

[sooner101]

very light sleet coming down on carrollton plano border

[Ntxw]

I'd like to report that the official North Texas Branch of PWC has received the first sleet pellets of the winter season off Bush tollway east side of the Airport.

[SouthernMet]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is starting to feel like a giant bust outside of the Panhandle and High Plains.

Remember this is just the first round of 3. Stay tuned, the main event is still to come.
Models still showing impressive QPF totals for I-35 corridor for tonight/tomorrow morning, potentially dangerous situation when you are below freezing getting heavy ice/sleet for multiple hours.

[Portastorm]

Currently in Texarkana it is 33 degrees with a dewpoint of 15. All the 12z runs of the models have a QPF output of 1-1.25" of precip for the Texarkana area. I don't need JB or Portastorm(one in the same) to tell me that equals a significant ice storm for this area.

Look who finally woke up and realized a winter storm was upon us!

We all should move to Texarkana!

[Longhornmaniac8]

Porta, have you been noticing dew points rising over the last hour or so? Is this expected after a rain event like that?

Cheers,
Cameron

[aggiecutter]

Currently in Texarkana it is 33 degrees with a dewpoint of 15. All the 12z runs of the models have a QPF output of 1-1.25" of precip for the Texarkana area. I don't need JB or Portastorm(one in the same) to tell me that equals a significant ice storm for this area.

Look who finally woke up and realized a winter storm was upon us!

We all should move to Texarkana!

I don't know about that. The Christmas ice storm of 2000 was pretty devastating. I was without power for 8 days, not fun at all. BTW, enjoy the weather, its the only weather you've got.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dewpoint 15 in Texarkana? Wow. Its still dropping here in SL, ready to see this next moisture plume. Im guessing as it hits eastern NM things will really fire up

[BigB0882]

Is there any chance of any wintry precipitation in Southeast Louisiana Tuesday night? I notice we have a good chance of rain Tuesday (100%) but I don't know when that rain is supposed to end. Our low for that night has gone from 37 to 35 so we are only 3 degrees away from hitting the freezing mark at the surface.

[iorange55]

Looks like the first band of precip split DFW in half. This was expected to be the weakest band, though. Hard to call this a "bust" yet.

We'll see what happens tonight, hopefully we stay away from the freezing rain.

[WeatherNewbie]

first sleet pellets just started coming down in richardson.

[sooner101]

Pretty decent sleet and rain coming down off of Frankford and the tollway on carrollton/dallas border

[downsouthman1]

Looks like the first band of precip split DFW in half. This was expected to be the weakest band, though. Hard to call this a "bust" yet.

We'll see what happens tonight, hopefully we stay away from the freezing rain.

Yes. Way too early to call this a bust. The dynamics are coming into place. This 1st batch needed to come through to create the wet-bulb effect. It is doing exactly what it was forecast to do. Considering that almost all of yesterday's late-day NAM runs actually showed the batch dissipate before it made it, we are now in a worse condition as a result of the fact that the models initialized the batch incorrectly. As a result, the atmosphere is now more primed than those models thought for a significant event.

Keep an eye on the development on radar west of San Angelo & over Sonora. It may break the expected lull in activity or grow upscale & launch the next wave.

[iorange55]

Finally getting some sleet here in the Cedar Hill area.

[Rgv20]

I know this may be a bit off topic with the current winter weather happening right now but just an update on the long range weather....GFS Ensembles and ECMWF Ensembles continue to hint at a stormy pattern in the long range. We could see another cold outbreak around the second week of December.


Look at that blocking in Alaska! in the 11-15 days, ECMWF Ensembles are similar in this time frame.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Looks like the first band of precip split DFW in half. This was expected to be the weakest band, though. Hard to call this a "bust" yet.

We'll see what happens tonight, hopefully we stay away from the freezing rain.

Yes. Way too early to call this a bust. The dynamics are coming into place. This 1st batch needed to come through to create the wet-bulb effect. It is doing exactly what it was forecast to do. Considering that almost all of yesterday's late-day NAM runs actually showed the batch dissipate before it made it, we are now in a worse condition as a result of the fact that the models initialized the batch incorrectly. As a result, the atmosphere is now more primed than those models thought for a significant event.

We'll need more wet bulbing down here to make it to freezing! Closest I got was 35.4.

Cheers,
Cameron

[downsouthman1]

Looks like the first band of precip split DFW in half. This was expected to be the weakest band, though. Hard to call this a "bust" yet.

We'll see what happens tonight, hopefully we stay away from the freezing rain.

Yes. Way too early to call this a bust. The dynamics are coming into place. This 1st batch needed to come through to create the wet-bulb effect. It is doing exactly what it was forecast to do. Considering that almost all of yesterday's late-day NAM runs actually showed the batch dissipate before it made it, we are now in a worse condition as a result of the fact that the models initialized the batch incorrectly. As a result, the atmosphere is now more primed than those models thought for a significant event.

We'll need more wet bulbing down here to make it to freezing! Closest I got was 35.4.

Cheers,
Cameron

This is the beginning. This is a progressive storm system. Not a one-shot & you're out kind of deal.

[Ntxw]

I know this may be a bit off topic with the current winter weather happening right now but just an update on the long range weather....GFS Ensembles and ECMWF Ensembles continue to hint at a stormy pattern in the long range. We could see another cold outbreak around the second week of December.


Look at that blocking in Alaska! in the 11-15 days, ECMWF Ensembles are similar in this time frame.

Check your PM RGV20

[TrekkerCC]

I also confirm some light sleet here (plano area).

[gboudx]

So far only light rain in Rockwall. Temp 33.