Texas Spring 2018

[weatherdude1108]

What a shocker. Models have backed off on cold front for next Monday/Tuesday.

That two inches of rain I got is evaporating by the hour in this weather.



082
FXUS64 KEWX 081933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Dry weather continues across the area once again this afternoon.
Temperatures are in the middle 80s to lower 90s with just some
passing high clouds overhead. Humidity values are in the 19-25
percent range west of a Rocksprings to Carrizo Springs line. In
addition, southeast winds are in the 15 to 25 mph range and this is
likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions for this area.
Conditions will improve around sunset as humidity values begin to
increase. Lows tonight will bottom out in the 60s for most locations.
This is a few degrees warmer than last night as dewpoints slowly
increase with the return of southerly flow. There could also be some
patchy fog for the southeastern counties in the morning as is progged
by several short-term models. For tomorrow, highs will top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s once again. In addition to continued high
clouds, there could be so afternoon cumulus, but overall the weather
is expected to remain dry. Lows Wednesday night will bottom out in
the lower to upper 60s, or another 2-3 degree increase from the
previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast should be controlled by the
effects of upper-level high pressure centered to our west. A tight
pressure gradient will ensure continued breezy southerly winds in the
10 to 20 mph range. Upper level ridging will continue to keep the
forecast dry through Saturday and will just show partly cloudy skies
with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Not many changes are
expected on Sunday, but there could be an isolated shower or storm in
the Coastal Plains in what should be a May seabreeze type set up.
Models have completely backed off the Sunday/Monday cold front. The
GFS/ECMWF both show a weak disturbance moving through the area Monday
night and into Tuesday and will show a 20/30 PoP for now to see if
this feature remains consistent in the output over the next few days.

Welcome to summer ! No rain for another week to 2 easily ! Mid 90d this weekend and a row of them through the end of the next week for Austin

Like JDawg mentioned, these dry patterns are hard to change (or something like that he mentioned), even though we had a break last Friday. Was hoping that was the beginning of a trend.

[Haris]

Forecasting to tie a record HIGH sunday of 94F ! Stood there since 1967 ! Here is my 7day

[Brent]

Forecasting to tie a record HIGH sunday of 94F ! Stood there since 1967 ! Here is my 7day

I miss winter already.

[Cpv17]

Cat 5 alert

[Brent]

about the only thing on the GFS worth mentioning... DFW may get close to 100 next week! Yayyyy

[Cpv17]

The weather is so boring right now man lol it sucks being a weather nerd during these moments. Honestly, I wouldn’t even mind having a weak tropical system impacting us right now with a few inches of rain and that’s coming from someone who was greatly impacted by Harvey just a few months ago.

[TheProfessor]

That'd make for an interesting flight back from Jamaica

[Tireman4]

Well, it would not be almost late Spring without one

[Brent]

First 100 on the DFW GFS meteogram

Fortunately beyond 300 hours out

But not much rain either

[Ntxw]

A whole lot of nothing burger going on. Fronts are becoming few and far, even cooler days are now quite warm due to summer settling in.

Months and months of benign weather. Hopefully we get some deep moisture to break it up some, with that comes humidity. Ugh just can't win with summer in Texas!

Peak of severe weather season has likely passed. For the country and plains as a whole it has been lacking and below normal

[Haris]

A whole lot of nothing burger going on. Fronts are becoming few and far, even cooler days are now quite warm due to summer settling in.

Months and months of benign weather. Hopefully we get some deep moisture to break it up some, with that comes humidity. Ugh just can't win with summer in Texas!

Peak of severe weather season has likely passed. For the country and plains as a whole it has been lacking and below normal

This would bring rain right?

[Haris]

Freaking fantastic !

[JDawg512]

Even though the La Niña is pretty much dead in the Pacific, we are still dealing with a La Niña atmospheric pattern. At this point we will need some tropical influence in the form of waves and depressions to keep us on the edge of severe drought if we don't improve long term soil moisture. Its safe to say that the rest of May is not looking great for wide spread beneficial rains. I would love to be wrong but I don't see anything really jumping out over the next 3 weeks at this time. June is typically close to May in terms of rainfall averages but given the overall tend this Spring, we would need a significant pattern shift or a stalled tropical low setup like we saw in 2007. In the meantime the Heat Miser has control of the thermometer and the Dry Miser is growing in power.

[Tejas89]

sorry if mentioned already, but April was a delightful -4F at DFW.

Hopefully the back half of May brings some rain statewide... mid-term forecasts not looking so great!

[Brent]

All those people who wanted heat have fun

With the fantasy hurricanes and lack of tornadoes i feel like we skipped spring and are going straight to summer

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, our fantasy hurricane is further east this run. It's probably going to suck whatever moisture tries to come our way, further exacerbating this pattern, adding insult to injury.



What's odd is that May is climatologically the wettest month of the year, at least in my part of Texas. I think the last time it was wet in May was in 2015 (strong El Nino year). But May is still the wettest month regardless of ENSO influences.

I'm lost. We shouldn't be talking about benign Summer patterns a month early. Depressing.

[JDawg512]

The Austin Fire Department held a press conference today warning that this year's wildfire season is going to be bad and residents need to be prepared. We saw this coming months ago so it's not a surprise. Now is the time to brush up on precautions and for those who live near greenbelts and up in the hills to trim and clear overgrown areas and remove any dead brush along property lines. Stick to your community's watering schedule, I'd recommend starting next week. Native trees, plants and grasses will show their worth.

[Brent]

its way too early for the GFS to be having nearly dry meteograms

Also 100's appear again at the end of the run

[weatherdude1108]

The Austin Fire Department held a press conference today warning that this year's wildfire season is going to be bad and residents need to be prepared. We saw this coming months ago so it's not a surprise. Now is the time to brush up on precautions and for those who live near greenbelts and up in the hills to trim and clear overgrown areas and remove any dead brush along property lines. Stick to your community's watering schedule, I'd recommend starting next week. Native trees, plants and grasses will show their worth.

I've had mine set for once a week (every Saturday in the early morning) for at least a couple years (minus the Winter time when I do once a month if no rain). If it has rained (like last weekend), I turn system off so it doesn't go off. I didn't water last Saturday (obviously after 2 inches the day before), but will turn it on to go off this Saturday morning, unfortunately. I have spray heads, but also a large area of drip lines which will help to keep that deep soil moist. A heavy watering once a week (or longer depending on rainfall) is better for the roots. I have native and adapted plants/shrubs/trees. Also a mix of St. Augustine, Bermuda, and native weed grasses on the turf.

[weatherdude1108]

Small, dashing ray of hope in the extended, I guess.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102004
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Near persistence weather will continue through Friday night as a low
amplitude upper ridge remains over TX. Scattered to broken stratus
will continue to form in the typical onshore wind pattern
concentrating mostly along the escarpment and srn Hill Country with
patchy fog possible East of I-35 at daybreak. Given this cyclical
pattern of morning clouds/afternoon sun, Temps in the afternoon
should be within 1 or 2 degrees of those today. Mins look to be
slighlty warmer over the Coastal Prairies where the surface pressure
gradient may be tightening a bit over that of this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Daytime Saturday should maintain a continued persistence pattern with
the mid level ridge intact over TX. The ridge axis aloft tilts
eastward to enable more SW flow aloft over W TX as a persistent low
pressure system over the Great Basin broadens and begins to fill.
This could tap TX into some elevated Pacific moisture although the
eastern Pacific subtropics look to be dormant in terms of convection.
Thus a modest moisture fetch should only partially destabilize over
the mountains of Mexico and near the dryline in W TX, but not be
able to weaken the cap over much of Central TX. A few cells are
expected to propagate east into the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains Sunday through Tuesday with the bulk of the activity
likely to be in the late afternoon and evening and in a weakening
trend.

Tuesday into Wednesday the flow aloft becomes more flat across
Central TX as both the ECM and GFS have trended toward lower mid-
level heights over the Ark-La-Tex in response to the filling and
northeastward ejection of the Great Basin upper low. By Wednesday
evening, a shallow troughing feature develops over the lower
Mississippi valley and gives Central TX a potentially more unstable
pattern for NW flow aloft. PoPs in the two extended guidances are
trending slighlty upward here and are more capable of generating more
significant rainfall rates over our northern counties for Wednesday
into Thursday. Low amplitude ridging should become established back
over TX late Thursday to return more stable weather. Temps should be
in a warming trend for next Thursday and beyond.