STORM2K

Iceresistance wrote:Now we may have this to worry about, it's looking very impressive over the Yucatán and could head towards Southern Texas if it keeps a northward component.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/89844104.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/89844104.gif

Sleeper potential here. Models aren't on board, but what's new in the tropics.

HockeyTx82 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:DFW is now expecting 5-8 inches of rain per WPC, this would be a flooding disaster.

That's a pretty bold statement. I would think localized flooding will occur. Disaster level, seems like a stretch.

Disaster isn't happening unless it's a foot or more. Just been too dry.

Just some minor issues with 5-8.

I mean, come on, Euro

ETA: It looks like the Euro might overdoing the low associated with the disturbance coming out of the BOC. It drifts up towards the Panhandle and then seems to strengthen and organize it as it drops back south. I'm not sure the upper level dynamics are present to produce that kind of low level response over land. We'll have to wait and see lol

bubba hotep wrote:I mean, come on, Euro

ETA: It looks like the Euro might overdoing the low associated with the disturbance coming out of the BOC. It drifts up towards the Panhandle and then seems to strengthen and organize it as it drops back south. I'm not sure the upper level dynamics are present to produce that kind of low level response over land. We'll have to wait and see lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081812/222/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

31 inches... scuba diving doesn't sound too bad lol

Yeah I'm intrigued by the Gulf potential. Seems like a sure bet it would make an attempt at being named at least

Follow the details about Invest 99L to see if south Texas will have effects from it.

This outflow boundary ruined everything down here. Too much dry air. It's like groundhog day.

I'm personally rooting for the tropical system if for nothing else to help eat away at the cockroach ridge, moisten up the mid levels, and (hopefully) do anything else to change this endless pattern of precip disappointment after disappointment.

bubba hotep wrote:I mean, come on, Euro

ETA: It looks like the Euro might overdoing the low associated with the disturbance coming out of the BOC. It drifts up towards the Panhandle and then seems to strengthen and organize it as it drops back south. I'm not sure the upper level dynamics are present to produce that kind of low level response over land. We'll have to wait and see lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081812/222/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It's been very consistent in showing this the past few runs.
The control on the Euro is even more aggressive which is interesting to me. However take it with a grain of salt until other models show this as well.

Clearcloudz wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:I mean, come on, Euro

ETA: It looks like the Euro might overdoing the low associated with the disturbance coming out of the BOC. It drifts up towards the Panhandle and then seems to strengthen and organize it as it drops back south. I'm not sure the upper level dynamics are present to produce that kind of low level response over land. We'll have to wait and see lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081812/222/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It's been very consistent in showing this the past few runs.
The control on the Euro is even more aggressive which is interesting to me. However take it with a grain of salt until other models show this as well.
https://i.imgur.com/N7rbPwu.png

18Z ICON coming in similar to the 12Z EURO

Edwards Limestone wrote:This outflow boundary ruined everything down here. Too much dry air. It's like groundhog day.

I'm personally rooting for the tropical system if for nothing else to help eat away at the cockroach ridge, moisten up the mid levels, and (hopefully) do anything else to change this endless pattern of precip disappointment after disappointment.

That outflow messed it up here at my house too. Totally stabilized it and storms fell apart on way here. We did manage to squeeze out some light rain, and went from 99 to 76. Measured about a tenth or less. My brother In South Austin sent a video of it pouring at his place! I said it evaporates at my place before it gets here,.lol. Been my life story.

On the news, David Yeomans on KXAN had a map of rainfall deficits. Austin and the Hill Country are in the 12 to 15 inches behind range. He also had a map of rainfall projections over the next 7 days per the CPC. I don't know how to put screenshots taken with a camera on this forum to show the maps I saw(?). It had 5 to 7 inches over the Hill Country! He mentioned going from "feast to famine." I think he meant "famine to feast."(?). Has to do with the Gulf low merging with the Texas trough and colliding. Fingers crossed! He said we could ironically be talking about flooding next week. Go figure, after this God-forsaken months-long toaster oven-baked relentless Summer. Bring it!

Clearcloudz wrote:

Clearcloudz wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:I mean, come on, Euro

ETA: It looks like the Euro might overdoing the low associated with the disturbance coming out of the BOC. It drifts up towards the Panhandle and then seems to strengthen and organize it as it drops back south. I'm not sure the upper level dynamics are present to produce that kind of low level response over land. We'll have to wait and see lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081812/222/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It's been very consistent in showing this the past few runs.
The control on the Euro is even more aggressive which is interesting to me. However take it with a grain of salt until other models show this as well.
https://i.imgur.com/N7rbPwu.png

18Z ICON coming in similar to the 12Z EURO
https://i.imgur.com/PY9wJtE.png

If we get a closed surface low drifting SE into a tropical moisture firehose then we will likely see some ridiculous rainfall totals. I'm just not sure that the dynamics are present to get 99L to look the best in its life cycle after it's been inland for several days. The GFS washes out 99L so there isn't a feature to really enhance rainfall like what the Euro and ICON are showing.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:This outflow boundary ruined everything down here. Too much dry air. It's like groundhog day.

I'm personally rooting for the tropical system if for nothing else to help eat away at the cockroach ridge, moisten up the mid levels, and (hopefully) do anything else to change this endless pattern of precip disappointment after disappointment.

That outflow messed it up here at my house too. Totally stabilized it and storms fell apart on way here. We did manage to squeeze out some light rain, and went from 99 to 76. Measured about a tenth or less. My brother In South Austin sent a video of it pouring at his place! I said it evaporates at my place before it gets here,.lol. Been my life story.

On the news, David Yeomans on KXAN had a map of rainfall deficits. Austin and the Hill Country are in the 12 to 15 inches behind range. He also had a map of rainfall projections over the next 7 days per the CPC. I don't know how to put screenshots taken with a camera on this forum to show the maps I saw(?). It had 5 to 7 inches over the Hill Country! He mentioned going from "feast to famine." I think he meant "famine to feast."(?). Has to do with the Gulf low merging with the Texas trough and colliding. Fingers crossed! He said we could ironically be talking about flooding next week. Go figure, after this God-forsaken months-long toaster oven-baked relentless Summer. Bring it!

Here is the latest from WPC. The crazy thing, this would knock Dallas out of the Top 10 driest summers and push all-time August rainfall totals!

00Z ECMWF rainfall totals EURO sticking with this idea that somewhere between Austin and Dallas there will be a 20 to 40 inch rain event.

Do I get to complain if I only get 4" of rain instead of 7"+ over the next week?

If this busts... Lord help us all.

I wonder when the WPC last had such widespread 5-inch totals over Texas?

As for the Euro, the moving totals do give pause since I’m on the western end of the extreme totals now and it drops quickly.

But, I think it’s a lock to get 3 inches, probably the most rain since last year IMBY.

It’s just a question of how much and where. But, it’s no longer a question if widespread heavy rain will happen over much of Texas.

rwfromkansas wrote:I wonder when the WPC last had such widespread 5-inch totals over Texas?

As for the Euro, the moving totals do give pause since I’m on the western end of the extreme totals now and it drops quickly.

But, I think it’s a lock to get 3 inches, probably the most rain since last year IMBY.

It’s just a question of how much and where. But, it’s no longer a question if widespread heavy rain will happen over much of Texas.

That is a good question. This current forecast is double or triple the avg August rainfall for many areas

Clearcloudz wrote:00Z ECMWF rainfall totals EURO sticking with this idea that somewhere between Austin and Dallas there will be a 20 to 40 inch rain event.

https://i.imgur.com/ZGtkNXP.png

I know the euro tends to overdo convective feedback in situations like this, so what is a reasonable upper bound on this setup in terms of rainfall amounts? Dfw afd does mention convective feedback and near record pwats, which makes me think someone in Texas could get 12”+

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Clearcloudz wrote:00Z ECMWF rainfall totals EURO sticking with this idea that somewhere between Austin and Dallas there will be a 20 to 40 inch rain event.

https://i.imgur.com/ZGtkNXP.png

I know the euro tends to overdo convective feedback in situations like this, so what is a reasonable upper bound on this setup in terms of rainfall amounts? Dfw afd does mention convective feedback and near record pwats, which makes me think someone in Texas could get 12”+

10-15" is a reasonable number I think. One missed item is the former 98L that traveled through S-Texas and Mexico, its remnants and possible vorticity is still rounding the former ridge. If there is a discernible meso-center with that feature we definitely could see a rain bomb if it slowly tracks the frontal boundary, that's when the wild numbers could be in play.

I don't think the Euro is necessarily overdoing it with totals, but the the extreme widespread coverage seems off. As we saw yesterday, all it takes is one outflow boundary to cut off everything.

Had a light drizzle earlier for about 5 minutes and got 0.02”. Hopefully we can get more rain in the afternoon