SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Yankeegirl]

So i am thinking this is like the 2nd or 3rd time this spring that the news channels have hyped up all this severe weather coming this way to only have it bust. I think if they keep doing this people are going to just ignore the warnings. As for me, I am sick off all the hype...So far I am not impressed with the storms.... or lack of....

[Ed Mahmoud]

So i am thinking this is like the 2nd or 3rd time this spring that the news channels have hyped up all this severe weather coming this way to only have it bust. I think if they keep doing this people are going to just ignore the warnings. As for me, I am sick off all the hype...So far I am not impressed with the storms.... or lack of....

No, like the last bust this looked quite scary on the forecast model soundings, and SPC doesn't issue PDS watches without a reason, there is just something about SE Texas that seems to bust watches like nowhere else in the US. Maybe proximity to the highlands of Coahuila and Chihuahua, where the capping layer often originates, and where data sampling points are sparse, leads to model underestimation of capping.

Just a guess, but watches bust a lot around here.

[CajunMama]

They were calling for what i saw, damaging weather. With the data they had it was what was going to happen. I suppose if they didn't call for it and then damaging weather occurred they'd have busted also? They can't win. I much prefer a bust than having to worry about my life, family and home.

[RL3AO]

Still might have a nasty squall line tonight.

[srainhoutx]

They were calling for what i saw, damaging weather. With the data they had it was what was going to happen. I suppose if they didn't call for it and then damaging weather occurred they'd have busted also? They can't win. I much prefer a bust than having to worry about my life, family and home.

Thank You!

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think there is a problem with the watch itself, but declaring it a PDS should be an issue.

[jasons2k]

So i am thinking this is like the 2nd or 3rd time this spring that the news channels have hyped up all this severe weather coming this way to only have it bust. I think if they keep doing this people are going to just ignore the warnings. As for me, I am sick off all the hype...So far I am not impressed with the storms.... or lack of....

No, like the last bust this looked quite scary on the forecast model soundings, and SPC doesn't issue PDS watches without a reason, there is just something about SE Texas that seems to bust watches like nowhere else in the US. Maybe proximity to the highlands of Coahuila and Chihuahua, where the capping layer often originates, and where data sampling points are sparse, leads to model underestimation of capping.

Just a guess, but watches bust a lot around here.

There is some truth that -- I think a lot of it has to do with this particular time of year ---

When there is a cap present (often due to our proximity to the Mexican highlands), we depend on heat/insolation to destabilize the atmosphere to that crucial point of 'busting the cap'. The problem with Feb/March systems here in SE Texas is warm dewpoints are advected over still cold shelf waters offshore. This results in a warm "soupy" mix of drizzle/rain for much of the day and the atmosphere just doesn't get as unstable as it should.

Points further west, where the air comes in a different trajectory and not straight off the Gulf (such as the SC Texas plains), there is sufficient sun/insolation to heat-up the atmosphere & destabilize it.

Points further east tend to not have the cap to overcome.

That often leaves us caught in the middle: gray, humid, and capped. And by the time the dynamics get here, often the system loses its punch.

As far as anything along I-10, there is nothing there, geographic or otherwise, that "splits" storms or anything like that. If you look at a hi-res rainfall distribution map of the Houston area, there are no donuts anywhere. Any one place can be hit-or-miss in a storm system. Sometimes a location may have several misses before getting dumped on, giving the impression that there is a big hole there, but in the long term, it all averages out.

[jasons2k]

One last thought before hitting the road: don't completely write this one off yet. The main trough is still behind the squall line and the cap is eroding. The best dynamics have yet to arrive so it could get interesting as the line pushes east, although it looks to me more like a bow threat setting up later on as the trough finally ejects everything east.

[JenBayles]

Yankee, are you with me on the "splitting" power of the Dome?

[Ed Mahmoud]

One last thought before hitting the road: don't completely write this one off yet. The main trough is still behind the squall line and the cap is eroding. The best dynamics have yet to arrive so it could get interesting as the line pushes east, although it looks to me more like a bow threat setting up later on as the trough finally ejects everything east.

That squall line, as unimpressive as it looks, appears to be the wind shift. Northwest winds, and falling dewpoints and temps behind it.


Area obs centered on La Grange.


Looks like the big story is rain and flooding in North Central Texas.

[serenata09]

Yeah, I wouldn't count on much else. Just some good old-fashioned downpours and wind in Austin.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yeah, I wouldn't count on much else. Just some good old-fashioned downpours and wind in Austin.

The line to the West of Houston continues to look anemic. DFW area, however, is getting pounded by excessive rains.

[JenBayles]

PDS = Particularly Disappointing Storm

I promise I will never again send out warnings to my family and friends about any forecasted storm system...

[CajunMama]

Storms in west texas look to be organizing. Y'all might not be out of the woods yet.

[RL3AO]

The first watch expires in an hour. Lets see if they extend it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The first watch expires in an hour. Lets see if they extend it.

Usually cap strength is weaker the further East one goes. I don't know about a PDS Watch, but a Watch for Louisiana might not be a bad idea, especially if the isolated storms that have been trying, but not quite succeeding, around East Texas finally get going.


7 pm CDT is also when the next sounding is done at LCH. Might depend on what that shows.

[Bunkertor]

My sounding page is down. Could someone recommend another one ?

[southerngale]

Some, if not most, of the worst weather I've experienced (with the exception of hurricanes) has been unexpected. I do think people will begin to shrug off these warnings a little, when they often don't materialize. I have already seen some evidence of that locally. However, I agree with what Frick said above... if it looks like severe weather is a real possibility, they have to warn us.

While most of us welcome the busts, you don't want people to ignore the warnings and become complacent.

It looks like the squall line is even weakening now. It's still pretty far away and has plenty of time to strengthen, but I have to wonder if we'll even get thunderstorms out of this. lol
I'm currently getting light rain, and it's still quite windy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My sounding page is down. Could someone recommend another one ?

Lake Charles
http://wxcaster2.com/SKT_72240.gif

Sounding at 0Z, on the webpage about an hour later, give or take


Good resource in general for Texas area stuff

Troy Kimmel's Met Links Page

[Ed Mahmoud]

Line looks a bit better now towards College Station.