Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

hi everyone
rainy day here in St. Maarten. It was raining very heavily this morning...about the time Luis posted the webcam picture.
I think we had around 2 inches of rain. The roads became flooded at the time.
Then it stopped and was just drizzling. The roads have drained off a little bit.
Now it just started raining steadily here again. and I can hear thunder.
It's a good day to stay home and read a good book.
Hope all is well in the other islands especially with Luis and Gusty.

Barbara

Hopefully,things start to quiet down there and in the whole Eastern Caribbean as flooding is becoming aparent in some islands. In Puerto Rico,it has been for the most part without any big rain event as most of the heavy rain has mantained offshore.Only the NE corner of the island recieved around 3 inches yesterday.

Barbara,can you tell the stormcarib admin to put the link to this thread at the Storm2k link there as it doesn't have this USA & Caribbean Weather forum. It will be very helpful to have it as plenty of information can be translated to the folks in the islands apart from seeing the radars and web cams at the first post.

http://stormcarib.com/

viewforum.php?f=24

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[cycloneye]

The latest discussion says things should start to dry out by Tuesday thru Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ELONGATED TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE FA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...A RATHER MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WEATHER
RATHER UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND RATHER HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BUT HAD TO BUMP THEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT REALLY GOTTEN GOING. IN FACT...
ALTHOUGH DO FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EXPAND THIS EVENING DUE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACTING AS A
KICKER...IF CURRENT TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE...NEXT SHIFT WOULD
NEED TO MAKE ANOTHER CHOP AT GRIDS. IN ADDITION...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AS THE "POTENTIAL" DOES STILL EXIST FOR
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE WATCH
AREA...BUT THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CUT BACK LATER TONIGHT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO ENCOMPASS THE FA
SOMETIME TUESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL WITH SOME
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AROUND. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY ENCROACH
UPON THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WITH SHRA/TSRA. CEILINGS
WILL BE LOW BUT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT NEAR SHRA/TSRA
WHERE THE WIND MAY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8 FEET. NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY...MAKING FOR
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OR
WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 50 40 30 50
STT 75 85 76 86 / 70 70 40 50

[Jimsot]

As of 4:00PM we have had 12 inches of rain. It is still raining moderately. The storms seem to keep forming to our southwest and moving over us.

[cycloneye]

In a normal day,this beach in St Maarten is full of yellow unbrellas in the sand and people in the water,but today is empty as the bad weather has dominated today there.



Wow Gusty,the mountains in Guadeloupe can't be seen with the heavy shower as normally they are seen in this cam.

[msbee]

As of 4:00PM we have had 12 inches of rain. It is still raining moderately. The storms seem to keep forming to our southwest and moving over us.

Jim
12 as in twelve???????

[msbee]

hi everyone
rainy day here in St. Maarten. It was raining very heavily this morning...about the time Luis posted the webcam picture.
I think we had around 2 inches of rain. The roads became flooded at the time.
Then it stopped and was just drizzling. The roads have drained off a little bit.
Now it just started raining steadily here again. and I can hear thunder.
It's a good day to stay home and read a good book.
Hope all is well in the other islands especially with Luis and Gusty.

Barbara

Hopefully,things start to quiet down there and in the whole Eastern Caribbean as flooding is becoming aparent in some islands. In Puerto Rico,it has been for the most part without any big rain event as most of the heavy rain has mantained offshore.Only the NE corner of the island recieved around 3 inches yesterday.

Barbara,can you tell the stormcarib admin to put the link to this thread at the Storm2k link there as it doesn't have this USA & Caribbean Weather forum. It will be very helpful to have it as plenty of information can be translated to the folks in the islands apart from seeing the radars and web cams at the first post.

http://stormcarib.com/

viewforum.php?f=24

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Of course, Luis. i will do that

[msbee]

raining steadily here. lots of flooding
Blob right over us

[Jimsot]

As of 4:00PM we have had 12 inches of rain. It is still raining moderately. The storms seem to keep forming to our southwest and moving over us.

Jim
12 as in twelve???????

Well actually it's now thirteen, as in 13
It is just raining lightly at the moment, hopefully the new blobs to the SW will just miss us, fingers crossed.

[cycloneye]

This is an excerpt from the flash flood watch advisory that explains what is going on with the troughs.

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
PAUSE BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH MONDAY. MOIST FLOW
OUT OF THIS AREA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR.

[msbee]

As of 4:00PM we have had 12 inches of rain. It is still raining moderately. The storms seem to keep forming to our southwest and moving over us.

Jim
12 as in twelve???????

Well actually it's now thirteen, as in 13
It is just raining lightly at the moment, hopefully the new blobs to the SW will just miss us, fingers crossed.

wow, thats amazing. I have no idea how much we got here but its been a lot I am sure.
only drizzling here right now

[Jimsot]

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR.

Well 11:00AM - 5:00PM - 13 Inches plus!

Just light drizzle now so hopefully we can start drying out! Most rain we have ever had since we arrived in 2006.

[msbee]

St. Martin is now on orange alert
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

and on the Dutch side the Office of Disaster Management is warning people to be careful of flooding

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... falls.html

and Crown Weather posted this warning on its Facebook page:
Crown Weather Services
Rough weather conditions are quite possible in the Leeward Islands Monday into Tuesday as low pressure develops right over the northeastern Caribbean. The worst conditions appear to be from Barbuda and Montserrat northward to Saint Martin and Anguilla. 24 Hour period of very heavy rainfall with amounts approaching 10 inches from noon Monday to noon Tuesday.

[Jimsot]

St. Martin is now on orange alert
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

and on the Dutch side the Office of Disaster Management is warning people to be careful of flooding

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... falls.html

and Crown Weather posted this warning on its Facebook page:
Crown Weather Services
Rough weather conditions are quite possible in the Leeward Islands Monday into Tuesday as low pressure develops right over the northeastern Caribbean. The worst conditions appear to be from Barbuda and Montserrat northward to Saint Martin and Anguilla. 24 Hour period of very heavy rainfall with amounts approaching 10 inches from noon Monday to noon Tuesday.

I hope he is WRONG!

[cycloneye]

From the 7 PM EST discussion by NHC.

THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS IMPACTED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N64W TO 13N67W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HIGH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THIS AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 13N E OF 68W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN
2 AND 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[msbee]

I hope he is wrong too, Jim

[Gustywind]

Msbee Meteo-France reported 118 millimeters of water in St Marteen today! We shoud all continue to be on our guard tonight and the others days for sure...

[Gustywind]

[crownweather]

We hope we're wrong too!! Just as a sidenote, we're trying to fire up a weather consultation service for those in the Caribbean. It's something that we've wanted to do for a quite a while and we have just pulled the trigger on providing this service. Full information at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6771 .

St. Martin is now on orange alert
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

and on the Dutch side the Office of Disaster Management is warning people to be careful of flooding

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... falls.html

and Crown Weather posted this warning on its Facebook page:
Crown Weather Services
Rough weather conditions are quite possible in the Leeward Islands Monday into Tuesday as low pressure develops right over the northeastern Caribbean. The worst conditions appear to be from Barbuda and Montserrat northward to Saint Martin and Anguilla. 24 Hour period of very heavy rainfall with amounts approaching 10 inches from noon Monday to noon Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion from the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
854 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS FORMED A TRAINING SHAFT FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER
SAN JUAN AND BROUGHT 1.29 INCHES OVER THE ASOS AND 0.98 INCHES OVER
THE GAGE AT THE SAN JUAN WFO SINCE 2 PM AST. THIS BROUGHT THE
TOTAL AT THE AIRPORT TODAY TO 1.55 INCHES SO FAR AND HAS PLACED AS
THE FOURTH WETTEST NOVEMBER 27TH. RADAR SHOWS MORE ON THE WAY BUT
NOT LIKELY TO BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST NOVEMBER 27--THAT WAS
3.66 INCHES SET IN 1968.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORT WAVE AT UPPER LEVELS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
AS CROSSING PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY IN THE GFS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
AS OF 28/00Z...THIS SHOULD SUPPLY ENOUGH DYNAMICAL AID FOR
CONTINUING SHOWERS AFTER NOON ON MONDAY AND WILL STAY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. LATEST GFS SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE FADE AFTER 29/18Z AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY AFTER THAT. NAM HOWEVER BRINGS
MOISTURE BACK IN EASTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES NOT
FORECAST RAIN. SOME SHOWERS THEREFORE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WET NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
POSSIBLY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[expat2carib]

It's NOT nice on the water at this moment. Getting more and more windy.