Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Yes,another round of rain is expected from now thru the weekend for the Eastern Caribbean on top from what has fallen in the past two weeks,so watch for local floodings and mudslides.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST THU DEC 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS NOW MOVING WEST AND WILL
BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
COMBINES WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...LOCAL EFFECTS...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS FORECAST BY THE
NAM MODEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THETA E AT THE LOWER LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO EXCEED 2 INCHES BUT AT THE SAME
TIME...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY SEEMS TO BE A BIT LOW
BY HAVING IT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX
VALUE AT -2 TO -3. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD
COVERAGE GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF CAPE EXPECTED BY THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL
AFFECT THE FOLLOWING TAF SITES WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK. THROUGH 15Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ AND TJPS WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 FEET WITH A 10
SECOND PERIOD...WHILE BUOY 41053 IS REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7
FEET AT A 12 SECOND PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 50 40 40 30
STT 85 76 86 76 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Another round of rain is expected from now thru the weekend and maybe until early next week for the Eastern Caribbean on top from what has fallen in the past two weeks,so watch for local floodings and mudslides.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU DEC 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEFORE PULLING FURTHER NORTHWARDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL HELP THE INDUCED LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS
BRING PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ACCOMPANYING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS TO
SPREAD AND DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT THE TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS...TO CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS....WITH ST CROIX EXPERIENCING LESSER
AMOUNTS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED AN OVERALL WET PATTERN TO PREVAIL ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY WITH LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT
RISE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND THE SURFACE LOW
NOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS WILL BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH NOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS INCREASE CLOUDINESS WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS IN OR AROUND
TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE BUOYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COMBINATION OF PULSES
FROM NORTH AND NORTHEAST SWELLS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE LOCAL PASSAGES. ALTHOUGH THE SWELLS ALONG WITH OVERALL BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA...
THESE SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
LEAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 40 40 50 50
STT 76 86 75 84 / 40 40 60 60

[Gustywind]

:rain:

Another round of rain is expected from now thru the weekend and maybe until early next week for the Eastern Caribbean on top from what has fallen in the past two weeks,so watch for local floodings and mudslides.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU DEC 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEFORE PULLING FURTHER NORTHWARDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL HELP THE INDUCED LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS
BRING PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ACCOMPANYING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS TO
SPREAD AND DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT THE TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS...TO CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS....WITH ST CROIX EXPERIENCING LESSER
AMOUNTS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED AN OVERALL WET PATTERN TO PREVAIL ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY WITH LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT
RISE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND THE SURFACE LOW
NOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS WILL BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH NOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS INCREASE CLOUDINESS WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS IN OR AROUND
TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE BUOYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COMBINATION OF PULSES
FROM NORTH AND NORTHEAST SWELLS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE LOCAL PASSAGES. ALTHOUGH THE SWELLS ALONG WITH OVERALL BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA...
THESE SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
LEAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 40 40 50 50
STT 76 86 75 84 / 40 40 60 60

Not good news Cycloneye but thanks to keep us informed..

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST THU DEC 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA IS FCST TO
WEAKEN FURTHER TOMORROW WHILE DEEPER TUTT LOW EAST OF 50W IS FCST
TO RETROGRESS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST
WINDS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN CVRG LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE EAST OF
60W MOVES TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS IT WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF.

IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE TWO EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND. ONE IS OVER NORTHEASTERN PR LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING IN A CLIMATOLOGICAL FVRBL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS AN
INVERTED TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. SECOND ONE IS
POTENTIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC EAST OF 50W. THIS ONE DOES NOT LOOK AS DEFINITE AS WITH
THE ONE ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT THE
COMPLETE END OF THE SPECTRUM (WET VS. DRY). RIGHT NOW AM LEANING
TOWARD THE GFS AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GFES/SREF.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERVALS OF CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA AND AFFECT SOME TAF SITES...TJSJ/TJBQ AND TIST/TISX
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...INCLUDED VCSH FOR THOSE SITES...AND
TEMPO GROUPS WITH SHRA AND MVFR CIGS FOR TJSJ AND TIST/TISX. THERE
IS A CHANGE OF TSRA FRI MORNING...MAINLY OVR THE ATLC WATERS.
09/00Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWS LLVL WINDS MAINLY FM THE NE AT 15 KTS OR
LESS JUST ABV SFC TO FL100.


&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12 FEET AGAIN BY SAT
MORNING BUT AM LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS. RIGHT NOW WW3 IS
OVERESTIMATING SEAS AT BUOY 41044 BY 2.5 FEET. WILL KEEP SEAS UP
TO 9 FT FOR NOW.


&&

.CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ARE A GOOD BET AT
JSJ OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHICH WOULD PUT 2011 IN THIRD
PLACE SOLIDLY FOR THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THREE TO FIVE INCHES
OVR THE WEEKEND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT STILL NEED 6+ INCHES
TO BEAT 2010.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 50 70 70
STT 77 84 77 84 / 30 30 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

The rainy scenario for this weekend continues to be the forecast today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST BUT WEAKENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EVEN
MORE DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WETTEST DAY AT
THIS MOMENT LOOKS LIKE IS GOING TO BE SUNDAY. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES...THE COLDEST AIR MASS TO OUR
NORTH AND THE WARMEST TO THE SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE OVER
PUERTO RICO DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF
CONVERGENCE...PROMISE TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. SJU-GFS PROG SOUNDING DEPICT
THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...INCREASING THE PW VALUES FROM 1.67
TODAY...TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE GFS90 MODEL INDICATED A BIG DIFFERENCE IN AIR
MASS...WITH THETA-E VALUES RANGING FROM 337K IN SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND 322K ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR MONDAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
FAVORABLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN
GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A MUCH DRIER AND COLD
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AT THIS MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...TKPK..AND TNCM IN PASSING SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
09/16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 72 / 50 70 70 70
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 70 70 70

[msbee]

good afternoon
we have been receiving off and on squalls that bring some light rainfall. Nothing significant to speak of.

[cycloneye]

good afternoon
we have been receiving off and on squalls that bring some light rainfall. Nothing significant to speak of.

Same pattern here. Let's see what happens during the weekend,when is forecast to be more rainy than the present status.

[Jimsot]

good afternoon
we have been receiving off and on squalls that bring some light rainfall. Nothing significant to speak of.

The showers seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. Moderate rain here at the moment. I wish this pattern would break. Hoping for long periods of dry and Christmas winds.

[cycloneye]

Not the best weekend to be in a beach or being outdoors all day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE INDUCED
TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL CREATE A
MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...ALONG WITH THE MEANDERING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP IN DESTABILIZING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED INDUCED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A WIND SURGE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EXPECT EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...TO LATER SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/PWAT
VALUES IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY...WHEN A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ...
TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN LOW CEILINGS AND SHRA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NE WINDS OF 15 GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 72 / 50 70 70 70
STT 85 75 84 75 / 40 70 70 70

[msbee]

It's raining steadily here now.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Barbara for the help on the Caribbean Hurricane Network link that now links to this thread.

http://stormcarib.com/

[msbee]

Thank you Barbara for the help on the Caribbean Hurricane Network link that now links to this thread.

http://stormcarib.com/

no problem, Luis.
I forgot to tell you that they did it.
B

[msbee]

We are having heavy rain and high wind right now.
This means more flooding. Our ground is way over saturarted

[cycloneye]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2011

PRZ001-002-004>006-008-009-012-013-VIZ001-002-100315-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
903 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2011

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

$$

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[msbee]

looks like more to come for us

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE IT WEAKENS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WET WEATHER ON TAP NEXT 24 HRS FOR NORTHEAST PR
AS TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. XPC HEAVY CONVECTION
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND SKIRT THE NORTHEAST
COAST. 2+ INCHES OF RAIN WHICH COULD COME DOWN IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST PR OVR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

TROF MOVES INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY SUN WITH SHARP DRYING NOW
EXPECTED FOR SUN. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR SUN AND MON.


&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FREQ SHOWERS FOR
JSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT USVI AND JSJ TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS NEXT 24 HRS DUE TO STRONG TRADES THAT WILL
GENERATE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET.


&&

.CLIMATE...DAILY CLIMATE RECORD FOR SAN JUAN FOR DEC 10 IS 2.02
INCHES AND IS LIKELY TO FALL TOMORROW AS HEAVY RAINS OF 2+ INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL FOR THE YEAR STANDS AT 84.29 INCHES AND 5.21
INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 2010. THE RAIN
TOMORROW WILL PUT US SOLIDLY INTO THIRD PLACE. WHILE NOT LIKELY TO
RECEIVE FIVE INCHES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT COULD HAPPEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 84 78 84 / 90 90 70 10
STT 78 81 78 81 / 80 80 70 10

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of the stormy episode in the East Carib given Meteo-France Guadeloupe...
http://www.meteo.gp/alaune/photo_sem.php

This storm stormy episode began on the night of Saturday 26 to Sunday 27 and ended two days later either end of the day on Tuesday, 29 November 2011. It concerned the whole of our islands with a yellow for heavy rains and storms in Martinique, orange vigilance on the Northern Islands and Guadeloupe.


It gave rise to significant accumulations of rain, the most affected areas being:


On Guadeloupe:
-Marie-Galante, with 271 mm, including 150 mm for one day Sunday.
-South of the Basse-Terre with rollups estimated at more than 300 mm on the soufriere volcano and its slope is, Saint-Claude-222 mm.
-On the town of Basse-Terre: 177 mm (including 95 mm in 3 hours)
-Capesterre and Trois-Rivières: 200 mm
-Le Gosier: 200 mm
-Petit-Bourg: 237 mm
-the great Fund: of the roll of the order of 150 mm.

On Martinique:
-The Marigot: 235 mm-Sainte Marie: 199 mm
-Gros Morne: 187 mm
-The Lorrain: 149 mm
-Saint Joseph: 146 mm.

On Saint Martin:
Large box: 244 mm


Reminder: 1 mm = 1 litre/m²

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It has rained almost all night in the NE part of PR with some rivers going over banks. There have been many flood advisories and warnings issued overnight and that tells the story here that I am posting those at the thread for that viewtopic.php?f=24&t=111932&p=2207952#p2207952 It looks like today will be the same with numerous showers.I will keep all informed of any news regarding the flooding.

Jimsot,how is the weather today in Anguilla?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY BUSY MIDNIGHT SHIFT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO SINCE YESTERDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED FLOODING IN
FEW MAIN RIVERS. THIS WET SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IS NOT
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 1.0 INCHES...WITH A MAINLY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...TODAY...PEOPLE OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY PEOPLE LIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND TAKE ACTION IF
NECESSARY IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TODAY. PREDOMINANT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FREQ SHOWERS FOR IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ...
USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. ENE WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 90 70 10 10
STT 84 74 84 74 / 80 70 10 10

[cycloneye]

There have been many roads flooded and people were swept by the water were rescued,but with injuries.Information translated to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 40738.html