Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Seeing some small returns west of Ponder from UNT.

Maybe something trying to get going?

The clouds look very elevated.... who knows

Satellite is showing that something is going up near Denton

[Edwards Limestone]

COD website is showing CIN breaking over DFW w/ 3000 J/kg CAPE air....cap is breaking up there for you guys. Should be interesting!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southcentral-truecolor-24-1-100-1&checked=counties-usint-map-cape&colorbar=undefined

[bubba hotep]

Area of agitated CU just west of DFW and there has been at least one failed attempt to fire off a storm. Looks like the thickest cloud deck is forming just SW of Ft. Worth, that will probably the area to watch.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas and
south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 112146Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected
along the dryline this afternoon and evening. Supercells with a
primary risk for of large hail, damaging wind gusts will be
possible. A weather watch is possible though uncertainty remains
high.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z, visible imagery showed deepening congestus
towers along a dryline observed across north central Texas and
south-central Oklahoma. To the east of the dryline, very warm
temperatures (80s to 90s F) and deep surface moisture (dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F) are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Zonal
mid-level flow associated with a low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the region was enhancing mid-level shear with VWPS and
mesoanalysis showing 40-50 kt EBWD orthogonal to the dryline. This
in combination with deep and veering wind profiles will
conditionally support discrete sueprcellular convection. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km) from observed and model soundings
will favor large hail with any sustained updrafts. Damaging winds
are also possible given the warm surface temperatures and fairly
large T/TD spreads. The tornado risk appears lower owing to weaker
surface flow and some low-level veering. Experimental WOFS guidance
has shown several discrete updrafts initiating over the last few
runs and posing a severe risk into this evening. While uncertainty
remains high, some severe risk appears possible across south-central
Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Conditions are being
monitored for a possible weather watch.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/11/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 WAPP has a cell firing off east side of Dallas around 7ish.

[rwfromkansas]

I am probably too far west again unless something pops very quickly.

I do note there is some kind of boundary moving west looking on Radarscope right into the other boundary, so maybe that can help. In any event, it looks like something will pop off.

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

I am probably too far west again unless something pops very quickly.

I do note there is some kind of boundary moving west looking on Radarscope right into the other boundary, so maybe that can help. In any event, it looks like something will pop off.

You’re almost always too far west. And in my situation I’m usually too far south so I definitely understand if you ever get frustrated with that lol

[Ntxw]

I'm not yet sold storms will fire down here. Best vorticity is lifting away in SE Oklahoma and into Arkansas, our chance at lift would have happened already. Dryline is drifting just of of 35-W.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not yet sold storms will fire down here. Best vorticity is lifting away in SE Oklahoma and into Arkansas, our chance at lift would have happened already. Dryline is drifting just west of 35-W.

I can see big storms to the South & Southeast that are located over Southern Oklahoma, already looks Supercellular at my POV.

[bubba hotep]

Storms are firing down the dryline in Oklahoma but not looking too good for N. TX. There are two areas of agitation on the dryline just west and SW of DFW. Elsewhere along the dryline, the CU field is starting to fade.

Looking a bit closer, there is a slight bulge on the dryline where Denton and Tarrant county meet. That would be the area to watch for a storm to pop off.

[HockeyTx82]

I can see the dryline. Looking west is clear, looking up is cloudy and due east is cloudy. It's right on top of me.

[rwfromkansas]

I am probably too far west again unless something pops very quickly.

I do note there is some kind of boundary moving west looking on Radarscope right into the other boundary, so maybe that can help. In any event, it looks like something will pop off.

You’re almost always too far west. And in my situation I’m usually too far south so I definitely understand if you ever get frustrated with that lol

It's better a little later in the season when the dryline is a bit further west. Lol.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like our best last chances are trying to fire along the northern Tarrant county line and another one down by Erath county.

ETA: Looks like the Erath county cell spit an orphan anvil. So far, hi-res models are looking pretty good showing several failed attempts but no actual storms for DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Shadows from what are probably the last legit chances at initiation for today.

[bubba hotep]

Another failure but you can see a couple of new crisp updrafts in the distance. So maybe one more go at it?

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

This might be it? If this can get surface based then it will encounter a pretty good parameter space as it moves into Collin County.

[Ntxw]

Really unstable environment but no forcing to really get going. Some of the best fuel was over the metroplex.

[South Texas Storms]

It wasn't much, but SA and the southern Edwards Plateau got some much needed rain late last night.
Nice after missing out on the last 2-3 events.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall1day.png
https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall1day.png

Yes, much needed! My parent's picked up close to 1 inch of rain along with some small hail last night. Very surprising storm as no models had anything there last night.