Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More good weather for today in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST WED DEC 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECT TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECTS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOW BY COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL INDUCE A STRONG NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MOST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A VERY
DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 700-250MB LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LIMITED DURING THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IS POSSIBLE...SATURDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...AS GFS
COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850 MB
LEVEL...NEAR OR OVER 90%. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ AND TIST...AND TJBQ DURING THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 81 71 / 20 40 40 20
STT 85 74 83 74 / 20 30 40 20

[cycloneye]

Wind Advisory for Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1213 PM AST WED DEC 14 2011

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0002.111215T0000Z-111215T1500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1213 PM AST WED DEC 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM AST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM AST
THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDRY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT APPROACHES US TONIGHT A NOTICIABLE INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS..

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST WED DEC 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR PLEASANT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS TYPE OF MUCH DRIER PLEASANT AND COOLER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TIST...AND TISX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 71 80 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 83 74 84 / 30 40 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST WED DEC 14 2011

.UPDATE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NOW
EXTENDING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION AND HELP PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...STILL EXPECT SURGES OF PASSING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OR PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
A GRADUAL CLEARING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED UNDER A
RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND
ADVISORY RUNNING FOR NOW...AS TRAILING EDGE OF FRONTAL ZONE STILL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WITH WINDS OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH
NOT SUSTAINED...WERE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 20 TO 23 KNOTS... BASED
ON SHIP REPORTS AND DATA FROM THE NORTHERN BUOY 41043...AS WELL AS
VAD WIND PROFILE DATA. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Typical weather for this time of the year.I love it. But watch out in the beaches as the surf is high.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST THU DEC 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE PAST ALL OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...MID
TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER
SEASON WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE PAST
ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY QUICK DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AS MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ADVECTS TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT STRONGEST
WINDS EARLY TODAY...AS FRONTAL ZONE AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR COMBINE
WITH BEST "COOL" ADVECTION AND BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALTHOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH...WILL OCCUR...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER (LOCAL WFO POLICY) ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THAT SAID...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING AND
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL "COOLISH" AND
LIKE THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PR AS SEEN ON TDWR TSJU
AS A FRAGMENTED LINE OF SHOWERS. FRONT IS MOVING TO THE ESE AROUND
13 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA AROUND 18Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING FROM THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 030-060 DEGS AT 15G25KT THRU 15Z AND THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ALSO...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A PURE SWELL INDUCED/RESULTANT
BREAKING WAVE EVENT...THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE NORTH
SWELLS AND THE MODERATE TO FRESH...AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
WINDS...WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET
AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR RESULTANT BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14 FEET
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON...WE OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AND HAVE LEFT IT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM AST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINTER/DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
PR/USVI LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER THREAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH
MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE.

FOR TODAY...AIR IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY LATER TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
BY THE END OF THE DAY. NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MODELS SHOW A
NICE THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 AND 850 MB. MOST RECENT MODIS TRUE COLOR
AND NDVI IMAGERY SHOW THAT VEGETATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR AND
RIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST IS BECOMING MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
BURNING. LATEST KBDI VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 400 ON A SCALE
FROM 0 TO 800 INDICATIVE THAT LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND BURN ACTIVELY IF IGNITION OCCURS.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY TO DRY FUELS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S RESULTING IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS THAT AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE 1.04 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING AT THE SJU LMM
INTL ARPT BRINGS THE TOTAL FOR THE YEAR TO 87.44 INCHES. THE
DRIEST LAST 15 CALENDAR DAYS OF ANY YEAR ON THE HISTORICAL RECORDS
WERE IN 2009 WHEN ONLY 0.19 INCHES WERE MEASURED SO IT NOW LOOKS
DEFINITE THAT 2011 WILL BECOME THE SECOND WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
WITH ONLY 0.11 INCHES NEEDED TO TIE 1931 AS THE SECOND WETTEST.
STILL 2.07 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK LAST YEAR`S ALL TIME WETTEST AND
WE ARE STILL KEEPING PACE WITH LAST YEAR`S. ON THE OTHER
EXTREME...1936 SAW THE WETTEST LAST 15 DAYS OF DEC WITH 8.36
INCHES MEASURED THAT YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 69 / 20 20 10 20
STT 85 72 85 72 / 20 10 10 20

[msbee]

Good morning
I agree with you Luis. I love this weather. It's pretty breezy today and we had some showers this morning.
but the sun is shining now.
Looks like it will be a lovely day, but windy, on the beach at Anguilla, a few miles away from us.

http://www.earthcam.com/cams/anguilla/meadsbay/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST THU DEC 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT ANS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS IMAGES
DEPICTED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO
25 MPH SPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR PLEASANT
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY...WITH ONLY THE
TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PR AND ACROSS THE U.S.V.I AS SMALL BANDS OF MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 69 81 / 30 10 20 20
STT 72 85 72 84 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change to the good weather and breezy pattern this weekend.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY NEXT 36 HRS WITH MODELS BRINGING A SECOND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN
ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AND LIFTED INDEX FIELDS FROM THE GFS.
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE SEEN EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED AND
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE TODAY TO SUPPORT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SO HAVE REMOVED POPS COMPLETELY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES OVR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
RELAXATION OF THE SFC PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED. LITTLE MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AND INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE PRIMARILY AT NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST ON NORTHEAST TRADES.

A NEW AREA OF LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP SVRL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. LATE SUN. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUE. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ON THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
LOOKS PRETTY STRONG THAT AM CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE FCST AREA BY NEXT WED. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER AS WAS THE CASE WITH
LAST FRONT YESTERDAY TO GIVE US ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. FRONT
THEN STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AT NIGHT UNDER A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41053 HAS GONE OFFLINE AND WITHOUT ANY VISUALS
TOUGH TO SAY HOW HIGH SEAS ARE OUT THERE. BUOY 41043 SHOWS SEAS UP
TO 11 FT IN BOTH NORTHEAST SWELLS AND NORTHEAST GENERATED WIND
WAVES. THERE IS SOME RELAXATION OF THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TODAY
THROUGH SAT SO WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO COME DOWN A BIT MORE THAN WHAT
IS SUGGESTED BY WAVE WATCH. A NEW PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY SUN. A BIGGER SWELL EVENT IS FCST FOR NEXT TUE AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND
CREATES A BROAD FETCH WITH INCREASING WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
AGAIN BETWEEN 10-12 FT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY STABLE AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN HAS
ESTABLISHED WITH ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY.
EXPECT AN INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER THREAT AS FUELS DRY OUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOWEST
AND NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS PROMOTE WARMING AND LOWERING OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 75 81 75 / 0 10 10 20
STT 84 77 85 77 / 0 10 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI DEC 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FAIRLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH SPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAY...WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL MAINLY NIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO RICO...FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST AND TNCM THROUGH
ABOUT 16/13Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 80 / 10 10 20 10
STT 73 85 74 84 / 10 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The good weather continues for the the NE Caribbean thru next tuesday. There were two quakes that occured early this morning in the Mona passage. See the details at the Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread at the geology forum.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SAT DEC 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE.
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AT MID LEVELS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BKN STRATOCU DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR PICKING UP SOME RETURNS BUT LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC OF UP TO 15F DEGS IN SOME CASES
SUGGEST THAT NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IS OCCURRING. AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN PRETTY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH JUST A
BKN STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING AT NIGHT CAUSING SOME SPRINKLES WITH
STRATOCU DECK MIXING OUT DURING THE DAY.

A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S.
SUN INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A SHALLOW CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUE WITH FRONT FCST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS
SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUE EVENING THAT A FEW SHOWERS
SEEM POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THINK THAT IT WOULD END UP BEING MORE
CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE
IN SPEED BEHIND FROPA AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE IN SPEED THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND AND THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NEW PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
SUN KEEPING ROUGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS SRUF CONDITIONS. SEAS
DIMINISH A BIT MON BUT ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS BIGGER PULSE
OF NNE SWELLS ARRIVE. SEAS LIKELY TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS IS EXPECTED OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY FUELS WITH AN INCREASING WILDFIRE
DANGER THREAT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST COAST DUE NORTHEAST
OR EAST NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE AND WARMING OF
TEMPS/LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WINDS IS POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SVRL
DAYS MAINTAING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 82 75 / 10 20 10 20
STT 85 76 84 76 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEAK. A WEAK COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS BANDS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE FIRST PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.
EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. AS USUALLY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SPEED AND A DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROBABLY LASTING UNTIL THE CHRISTMAS
EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES...DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL WNDS
FCST TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 FM SFC-15K FT...BCMG NRLY
ABV. PASSING LOW LVL CLDS BTW 030-070 KFT WITH FEW PASSING -SHRA. NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 81 / 20 10 20 10
STT 76 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

I have updated the Central America cold surges thread with the observation of the event regsitered from December 7 to 12: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2208536#p2208536

By the way, I'm sorry for not posting observations as often as I used to because I had very very busy weeks in college but finally I have ended my last semester so I will be graduating on September or October 2012

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Same winter pattern for the NE Caribbean during the next few days, so enjoy it. The exception is in the beaches as the surf is high.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK. A CDFNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKY COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT TWO DAYS
THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. PRECIP WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC AND PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN. EXPECT BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK
NORTH OF 24N TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF HAVING MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND/OR HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP
THAN PAST FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STRATOCU DECK HOLDING
TOUGH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY MON THAT I NEEDED TO BUMP UP SKY GRIDS
SUBSTANTIALLY.

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE NW ATLC LATE TODAY
WITH CDFNT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUE. LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT BUT I EXPECT
TO EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDING ON ITS WAKE IS PRETTY STRONG. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERING AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTING/WEAKENING TO
H7 MB FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS. PRES GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE
STRONG WITH WIND ADVZY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE MET DURING THE PERIOD
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVS. FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY THU WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AS WE APPROACH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT BKN-
OVC STRATOCU DECK TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
IN CIGS LIKELY AT NORTH COAST PR/USVI AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS OVR THE DAY BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN TO MVFR AT NIGHT. CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS
TUE-WED WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBY LIKELY. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TODAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS FCST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT WITH 20-KT SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...A PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS ARRIVED YESTERDAY EVENING
WITH BU0Y 41053 INDICATING 8 FT SEAS AT 14 SECS AND BUOYS 41043
AND 41044 ALREADY INDICATING A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS. THIS PULSE
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH SURF ADVZY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA TONIGHT. A LARGER PULSE IS EXPECTED
FOR TUE WITH 10-12 FT SEAS LIKELY. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 12+
FT SEAS AS THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE NW ATLC AND THE PRES GRADIENT OVR THE AREA WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG ADDING TO THE MIX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW DAYS AND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH. THINGS FCST TO
CHANGE ON THU AS STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH BRISK WINDS AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 81 74 / 10 20 10 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 10 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1104 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2011

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. APART FROM SHALLOW PASSING LOW LEVEL
COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL UNDER THIS STABLE WEATHER PATTERN. IN FACTS...LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS AS BANDS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH DRIER AND STABLE AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND PLEASANT
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. LATER WEATHER MAPS DEPICTED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY MID WEEK...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. AS USUALLY...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INDUCING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS SPEED AND A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PROBABLY LASTING UNTIL THE CHRISTMAS EVE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SUN DEC 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE INSIGNIFICANT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
GENERALLY FAIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. LATER WEATHER MAPS DEPICTED A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK...RESULTING IN A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. AS USUALLY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SPEED AND A
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROBABLY LASTING UNTIL THE
CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHEAST SWELL BEGAN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS ANS ALL LOCAL PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...THIS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING CONFUSE SEAS THROUGH INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 74 81 / 30 20 30 40
STT 73 85 73 85 / 10 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A cold front will arrive tommorow bringing scattered showers and more windy conditions.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON DEC 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND BRUSHED PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER
SCENARIO WITH MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND
THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL STALL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BRINGING SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE MET DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FR THRU 00Z TUE WITH NO WX XPCD. A STRATUS LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TUE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA WITH CIGS
RESTRICTIONS AT JBQ/JSJ/IST LIKELY. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING TUE AS SHALLOW CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN AT NIGHT TUE NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT NORTH COAST PR
TERMINALS/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICKUP
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z TUE WITH NE WINDS 15G25KT INCREASING TO
20G30KT WED NIGHT AT MOST AIRPORTS XCPT TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN WITH ONLY 5-6 FT BEING REPORTED AT
LOCAL BUOYS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS
LARGE PULSE OF NORTH SWELLS AT 8 FT 12 SECS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN
NORTH SWELLS AND EAST NORTHEAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. 00Z WAVEWATCH
ENSEMBLE HAS A 100% PROB OF SEAS EXCEEDING 3-METERS AND 30% OF
EXCEEDING 4-METERS. NEEDED TO RAISE SEAS AGAIN TO 10-12 FT OFFSHORE
AND 8-10 FT NEARSHORE ATLC. NEARSHORE WATERS WILL HAVE SCA STARTING
TUE. HIGH SURF WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT STATE
OF SEAS AND LATEST FORECAST DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA UNTIL TUE OR
THIRD PERIOD. NWS DIRECTIVES STATE THAT THIRD PERIOD ADVISORIES ARE
NOT RECOMMENDED. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 20-25 KT WINDS COMMON
TUE-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 80 73 / 10 40 40 40
STT 84 74 85 75 / 10 30 40 40

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Report from Anguilla:

SIGNIFICANT WAVE EVENT THURSDAY

By "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:17:31 -0400

A cold front currently passing through the Bahamas will pass north of us on Wed. bringing gale conditions to the mid-Atlantic and rough seas/wind here in Anguilla starting Wed. and peaking on Thursday. By Wed. morning expect moderate to rough seas in the 10 – 12 ft. range, and by Thursday morning, we should expect 12 – 15 ft. NE seas on the north coast with NE winds in the high 20 mph range, gusts in the mid-30’s. We can also expect frequent showers. Also of concern is the wave period (frequency) of 7-8 seconds – normal swells are in the range of 12-14 seconds. A small craft warning is expected by Tuesday. The combination of NE waves breaking rapidly on the shore combined with strong, gusty winds will create dangerous surf conditions on the north shore with blowing sand and surf. Bathers should stay out of the water. Conditions will slowly improve only slightly through the weekend, and we will continue to have rough seas until Monday.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON DEC 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRONG WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM EARLY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FEATURE MOVE OVER THE REGION.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
GENERATING FRAGMENT SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FM THE NE BTW 5 TO 15. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER AND
MUCH BIGGER SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY. THE BUOYS 41047 AND 41049 WHICH ARE AT THE MOMENT INSIDE
OF THE FETCH...ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 11 TO 15 FEET WAVES. ALTHOUGH
SOME DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING
THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY...THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FEET. ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SWELL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS CONFUSE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES. THIS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 72 81 / 40 40 40 40
STT 72 85 73 85 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
912 PM AST MON DEC 19 2011

.UPDATE... CONDITIONS GENERALLY HAS BEEN DRY WITH LITTLE NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. 20/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING CAME VERY DRY
WITH PW VALUES OF 0.89 INCHES. TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA. THE MOST IMPORTANT EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS. REFER TO MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WITH LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. FROPA IS EXPECTED BTWN 11-14Z AT TJSJ AND HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
AT 21 DEG N. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N TO NE BTWN 5 TO
15 KT. ALTHOUGH VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT TIST...TNCM AND TKPK.

&&

.MARINE... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY. BREAKING WAVES
WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FEET
THROUGH THURSDAY.