Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Merry Christmas, as I expected the front at the end of the week will bring nothing more than a quick cool down, back to the 70s & 80s for New Year's Eve and New Years Day.

Yep the models are slowly backing off on the intensity of the cold yet again. Pattern just doesn't favor arctic air intrusions into Florida so far this year.

[northjaxpro]

Merry Christmas, as I expected the front at the end of the week will bring nothing more than a quick cool down, back to the 70s & 80s for New Year's Eve and New Years Day.

Yep the models are slowly backing off on the intensity of the cold yet again. Pattern just doesn't favor arctic air intrusions into Florida so far this year.

Got to have a resemblence of a negative NAO for us to have a real significant cooldown. It just is not happening in winter for our region of the North America continent and has not really happened in over six years now.

Plus, this is a La Nina winter, and for the Southern tier of the CONUS, a La Nina winter is generally warmer than average. Unfortunately, for cool weather enthusiasts, this is exactly how this season is playing out to this juncture.

[boca]

Why is the NAO always positive we can't buy a cold front here in Florida

[TheStormExpert]

Why is the NAO always positive we can't buy a cold front here in Florida

I know, ever since all the winter months of 2010 the NAO has been for the most part positive. This year it is even worse since it is accompanied by a positive AO and a negative PNA.

IMO the clock is ticking and I really do not see much if at all any winter for the peninsula of Florida, just my opinion based on trends over the past 5 years and how the teleconnections are behaving so far this fall/winter.

Hope everyone is having a Merry Christmas!

[psyclone]

remarkable warmth was recorded across Florida for a second Christmas in a row. 1 year ago Tampa demolished the record high for Christmas by 3 degrees with a high of 86...an amazing feat considering records date back to 1890. So hitting that same number again in 2016 is all the more remarkable. I was driving I-4 in Hillsborough county this afternoon near Plant City and my car thermometer read 87. It sure felt like it. Cool shot still on target for Friday with highs that day closer to or just below recent lows...it's bound to feel cool but a rapid rebound is in store. CPC continues to show odds favoring warmth and at this point it's tough to bet against persistence.

[Ntxw]

Why is the NAO always positive we can't buy a cold front here in Florida

Perhaps it is related to the solar cycle? Not sure though 2008-2010 was during the recent solar minimum and since then we have peaked at the solar maximum. We are sliding towards another minimum the next few years.

[NDG]

Why is the NAO always positive we can't buy a cold front here in Florida

Perhaps it is related to the solar cycle? Not sure though 2008-2010 was during the recent solar minimum and since then we have peaked at the solar maximum. We are sliding towards another minimum the next few years.

That would be interesting if there's a relation to the solar cycles.

[Ntxw]

Why is the NAO always positive we can't buy a cold front here in Florida

Perhaps it is related to the solar cycle? Not sure though 2008-2010 was during the recent solar minimum and since then we have peaked at the solar maximum. We are sliding towards another minimum the next few years.

That would be interesting if there's a relation to the solar cycles.

Its the only recent correlation on the NAO long scale. +amo projections to a -NAO has not been good the past few years

[psyclone]

Almost the entire continental US is below normal on the 8-14 day outlook with the exception of a small sliver of the southeast...You'd have to think cooler times for Florida are ahead just beyond that forecast timeframe based upon the extent of the cool anomalies...something to keep an eye on. In the near term, Friday's cool snap is looking pretty robust with max temps about 10 degrees below normal here in the bay area. Along with CAA winds..it will feel cold for sure.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I know it's the ensembles for mid jan. but maybe your right. It shows for now the AO tanking around then.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[NDG]

Last 2 GFS runs have been crazy, bringing 20s to central FL. Euro not in agreement with the GFS, keeping the core of the Arctic air across the northern US, which makes sense because of the -PNA forecasted by the ensembles and NAO going near neutral at the most.

[gatorcane]

Last 2 GFS runs have been crazy, bringing 20s to central FL. Euro not in agreement with the GFS, keeping the core of the Arctic air across the northern US, which makes sense because of the -PNA forecasted by the ensembles and NAO going near neutral at the most.

12Z GFS running now has backed way off on the intensity of the cold for Florida next week.

[otowntiger]

Last 2 GFS runs have been crazy, bringing 20s to central FL. Euro not in agreement with the GFS, keeping the core of the Arctic air across the northern US, which makes sense because of the -PNA forecasted by the ensembles and NAO going near neutral at the most.

12Z GFS running now has backed way off on the intensity of the cold for Florida next week.

of course. summer continues.

[TheStormExpert]

Here we go again! The 12z Euro is showing an Arctic air intrusion 10 days out approaching Florida and the peninsula as a whole. You know the routine!

[gatorcane]

Here we go again! The 12z Euro is showing an Arctic air intrusion 10 days out approaching Florida and the peninsula as a whole. You know the routine!

http://i67.tinypic.com/3492yki.jpg

Yeah I don't believe this run, probably another case of the model overdoing the amplification of the jet stream in the long-range. The GFS and Euro ensembles show nothing like this approaching Florida though the GFS was showing something similar in its runs from early yesterday and overnight the day before.

[psyclone]

CPC stubbornly refuses to move those cold anomalies any closer to us. Virtually the entire country sans south GA and FL are painted in blue...so it would not be surprising to see cold air spill toward us only to slow to a crawl and stop just to our north. the upcoming week (after this 36 hour cool blast) looks nice with highs in the 70's and lows in the 60's over central florida. that's a temperature scheme that will satisfy most and I'll happily accept. I tend to think of the peak freeze season for peninsular Florida as mid Dec to Mid Feb so we've made it through the first quarter in good shape.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This pattern is really baffling. I really can't recall a more mild winter than this one, other than maybe last year... and the year before...

[NDG]

Enjoy this 36 hr winter wx, back to the 70s & 80s starting tomorrow. But I am so happy for California to finally have a decent rainy/snowy winter after so many dry winters in a row under a persistent dry ridge.
Ensembles continue to show -PNA pattern over the next few days with slightly negative NAO, not a good combination for cold wx to stick around FL for lengthy period.

[otowntiger]

CPC stubbornly refuses to move those cold anomalies any closer to us. Virtually the entire country sans south GA and FL are painted in blue...so it would not be surprising to see cold air spill toward us only to slow to a crawl and stop just to our north. the upcoming week (after this 36 hour cool blast) looks nice with highs in the 70's and lows in the 60's over central florida. that's a temperature scheme that will satisfy most and I'll happily accept. I tend to think of the peak freeze season for peninsular Florida as mid Dec to Mid Feb so we've made it through the first quarter in good shape.

I would like to see us get a freeze here in central Florida every once in a while to keep the insects and exotic invasive plant material in check. We used to get them every so often. I don't want to see us become Miami as far as weather and ecology goes. But that's just me, and it is what it is.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A lot of cloud cover in place over FL today. It'll probably put a cap on how low the temps get tonight.