Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN TO THE EAST OF 70W AS
POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. A SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING CDFNT TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER DATA
BETWEEN 600-300 MB. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BUT THE GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR. ONLY ISOLD
CVRG XPCD WITH JUST A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE AT BEST.

SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF ST.CROIX LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL ZONE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS THE FASTEST WITH FROPA WITH THE 00Z GFES
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND THE 00Z OP GFS THE SLOWEST. RIGHT NOW...PREFER
THE FASTER ECMWF AND 00Z GFES AS HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT IS
PRETTY STRONG IN THE 0RDER OF 1030 MB OR SO. AT ANY RATE...MODELS
SHOW FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY WED. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE NCNTRL/NORTHEAST COAST. SINCE THE FASTER ECMWF IS
PREFERRED...SHARP DRYING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
POLAR TROUGH FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN NOAM THAT IS FCST TO EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TJSJ 14/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2KM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FT BOTH ATLC AND CARIB OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TODAY IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WINDS
SLACKEN. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TUE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AND CARIB PASSAGES IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND
NORTHEAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH/SRN
SLOPES AND WEST COAST DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...DRY FUELS AND MARGINALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES. A COUPLE OF FIRES DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON ONE ALONG THE COAMO/SALINAS COUNTY LINE AND ANOTHER
AROUND THE ALBERGUE OLIMPICO AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE
DRY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES MON AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CDFNT WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED MON AND TUE DECREASING THE
FIRE DANGER. SOUTHWEST PR MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT
THE THICK CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER. SHARP DRYING
IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...A COOLER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY MITIGATE
THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 10 30 30 40
STT 80 73 78 73 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DOMINANT UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. GFS
MODEL SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THEN DRYING IT OFF TO ABOUT 1.0 INCHES PW FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH PATCHED OF DRY AND MORE HUMID AIR IS WHAT
THE GFS SEEMS TO THINK WILL HAPPEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
THEN BRINGING DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA THIS AFTERNOON TO BE MAINLY S OF TJMZ AND W OF
TJPS...FEW OBSCD MTNS. OTHW VFR CONT THRU MON XCPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS
IN ISOLD SHRA TONITE EASTERN PR TO FARTHER EAST. TRADE WINDS E 15-25
KT TO FL150.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GOING DOWN SLOWLY. BUOYS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS ARE REPORTING SEAS NO MORE THAN 6.6 FEET WHILE WINDS HAVE
REMAINED AT AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND THE REST
OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DIMINISHING SEAS AND FALL BELOW
7 FEET TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 82 / 30 30 40 40
STT 73 78 73 77 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal lows in Costa Rica.
-Warmer than normal highs in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal highs in Belize, Guatemala and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F) Warmest since October 12 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.1°C (68.2°F) Warmest since November 20 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F) Warmest since November 17 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F) Warmest since December 5 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.9°C (98.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SUN JAN 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY...WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FROPA. MODELS SHOW FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
SHARP DRYING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT WITH A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...SOUTHERN SLOPES AND ALSO ACROSS WEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...DRY FUELS AND MARGINALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 71 / 30 40 40 20
STT 78 73 77 73 / 30 30 30 10

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN JAN 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENING AND
DISSIPATING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GET A BIT WETTER AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE INCREASING WINDS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA...THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TO THE SOUGH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATING
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...MOST OF THE AREA BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...AND THE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 81 / 40 40 60 60
STT 73 77 73 77 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...FLATTENING AND DISSIPATING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FROPA. MODELS SHOW FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH LEFT OF IT
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
EARLY TUESDAY/LATE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A SHARP DRYING IS EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER AND WINDY PATTERN WILL THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS 16/10Z
THRU 16/16Z...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX AND ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. 15 KNOTS EAST NORTHEAST WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 8
KFT...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS UP TO 13 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MOST OF THE AREA BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND
6 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...AND THE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 81 71 / 40 60 70 60
STT 77 73 77 73 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

Showers will increase starting tonight as a cold front zags southward.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL OCCASIONALLY
FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND PART OF TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME
PATCHY CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING TUESDAY AND THEN
PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS TO THE FA. ONCE BOUNDARY MOVES PAST...A MUCH DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FOR
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST LIKELY FRIDAY...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT... RESULTING IN
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND BREEZY TO EVEN LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TUE NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU NOON
WED WITH SCT SHOWERS. WINDS PICK UP WITH ENE WINDS 17G25KT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH...AND LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 79 / 60 70 60 60
STT 74 80 74 80 / 40 40 50 50

[Macrocane]

The unseasonably warm minimum temperatures continue in Central America, these are the temperatures registered yesterday (January 15):
-Warmer than normal lows were registered in every country of Central America.
-Near normal highs were registered in all the countries but Guatemala where cooler than normal highs occurred.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.7°C (44.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.9°C (51.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F) Warmest since October 10
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.3°C (64.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Weak cold front arrives today bringing scattered showers and cooler temparatures to the PR/VI area.


AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT AROUND 100 MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY AFTER THE
FROPA...WITH A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL DRY AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...JUST ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PWAT VALUES
INCREASED TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES FROM NEAR 1.0 INCHES FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA. AFTER THE FROPA...A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A COOLER AND WINDY PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. EARLY MORNING DATA FROM SHIPS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 MPH.
THESE WINDS SPEED ARE BELOW BUT CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER
THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS TJSJ. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST NOON
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 17/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 79 70 / 70 60 60 20
STT 80 74 80 74 / 40 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE CARIB SEA WED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CNTRL/NORTHEAST COAST AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. WHILE THE CHANCE OF
GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN IS PRETTY HIGH TONIGHT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN THE 0.10 AND 0.20 INCHES BUT AMOUNTS UP TO HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE EL YUNQUE. FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CARIB TOMORROW WITH SHARP DYRING EXPECTED. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY
NOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SEASONABLE DRY PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH
UNDER A NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN YOUR
TYPICAL ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PR.
GENERALLY A COOL WX PATTERN UNDER BROAD TROUGH ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
TNCM...TKPK...TISX...TIST...AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 18/12Z IN
PASSING SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
HIGH SURF WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR BREAKERS OF 8-12 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BUT NOT ENOUGH RAIN IN THE SOUTH TO BRING ANY RELIEF TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER TOMORROW MORNING...VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
VERY DRY AIR FOR CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS ACROSS PR/USVI.
LIMITING FACTORS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS APPEARS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BELOW 15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 100 10 20 20
STT 76 79 76 79 / 50 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST TUE JAN 17 2012

...THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS AND CONFUSED SEAS....

.MODERATE TO LARGE...NORTH SWELLS WITH WAVE PERIODS OF AROUND 10
SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...
BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED
COASTS.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-180345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0003.120117T2200Z-120119T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
332 PM AST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
AST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM AST
WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 10 FEET AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...AND FREQUENT STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING: VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: LARGE BREAKING WAVES...FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
AND BEACH EROSION ARE EXPECTED.

* THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR:4:56 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.5 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS:6:10 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.1 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA WHILE MINOR TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AN EAST-WEST TROUGH FORMS WEAKLY OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND MOVES SOUTH. A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE DISSIPATING. AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON RELATIVELY STRONG EAST
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF SAINT THOMAS
AND AROUND AND SOUTH AND WEST OF SAINT CROIX. SHOWERS CELLS ARE
MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE ATLANTIC NOW HAS
MARKEDLY FEWER SHOWERS THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.

ALTHOUGH THE DEW POINT AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 HAS FALLEN TO 64
DEGREES...DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...MAINLY
WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED. AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THEN ONE QUARTER INCH.

WINDS IN THE AREA CONTINUE TO REGISTER AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 3
AND 6 THOUSAND FEET ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE 09Z OBSERVATION
FROM AGUADILLA CARRIED WINDS OF 22G29KT. THEREFORE WILL CARRY THE
WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 1500 FEET UNCHANGED TO 8 AM AST. WINDS WILL
PROBABLY NOT MEET CRITERIA EVERYWHERE...BUT SOME WINDIER AREAS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH IF NOT
SUSTAINED WINDS.

THE GFS BRINGS AREAS OF MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM BRINGS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR AT 850 MB IN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN A BAND OF
MOISTURE AFTER 19/09Z THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE NAM WAS WETTER ON THE 00Z RUN THAN THE
NEWEST RUN WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE
AND SOME WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO IT WHEN FORMULATING THE 60 PERCENT
POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF PUERTO RICO AND THE 40 PERCENT POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SOME
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AT LOWER LEVELS THAT MAKES OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FLOW LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE
LUQUILLO RANGE AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL FOOTHILLS. MOISTURE
GENERALLY TAPERS OFF TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS DO RAIN CHANCES...BUT
...AS USUAL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN
THE USUAL DAILY PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER TNCM/TKPK...TISX/TIST...AND
TJSJ/TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 18/18Z IN -SHRA/SHRA...MAINLY DUE TO LOWER
CIGS. ENE WINDS 15G25KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ESPECIALLY BEFORE 18/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE 10 TO 12 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 AND THE
MODEL SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY
A SLOW RELAXATION OF WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MODELS KEEP 7 FOOT SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY AND WITH WINDS FLOW AS IT IS...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT THIS FAR. THE CARIBBEAN WILL
ALSO BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY THE WINDS THOUGH MOST OF THE
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BE BLOCKED. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND PART OF THE OUTER
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 69 81 71 / 60 60 60 60
STT 82 72 83 72 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

Dry weather with cooler temperatures will be the rule for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED JAN 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL
START BUILDING INTO THE REGION MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...S/W PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS KEEPING THE RISK OF ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
PRIMARILY AT NIGHT ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. IT APPEARS BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY SAT AND SUN AS
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. RIDGING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL START
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST NEXT TUE WITH MORE SIG
DRYING EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN ROUGH AS SEEN ON LIVE WEB CAMERAS AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. BUOY 41053 CURRENTLY SHOWS MAX WAVE HEIGHTS OF 17 FT
AND SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 FT. THIS JUSTIFY EXTENDING HSA THROUGH
TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HRS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND AN
INCH THRU SUN. PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN
STRENGTHEN AGAIN THROUGH SUN. IT APPEARS SATURDAY OFFERS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WINDS BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN_RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
DESPITE LOW PW VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL START BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUE AND HELP SUPRESS
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WITH FIRE DANGER LIKELY TO INCREASE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[Macrocane]

Warm lows continue in Central America, we would need cooler minimum temperatures the rest of the month for January or this will be one of the warmest Januaries for Central America. These are the temperatures registered yesterday:
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Panama. Near normal lows in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
-Warmer than normal highs in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.1°C (48.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 0.8°C (33.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F) Warmest since December 15
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST WED JAN 18 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS GENERATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
INCREASE THE POPS OVER THESE ZONES TO ACCOMMODATE ACTUAL WEATHER.

HAZARD MARINE CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SLIGHTLY SUBSIDES. THE BUOY 41053
REPORTED WAVE HEIGHT OF AROUND 6 AND THEREFORE NOT MEETING THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE WAS CANCELLED.


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER TNCM/TKPK..TIST...AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT.
AFT 19/15Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH SUN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No changes to the present pattern of scattered showers combined with periods of sun.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU JAN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
RIDGED IN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE AREA AND
IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE IN THE FLOW ALONG
THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SAN JUAN
REPORTED 0.46 INCHES DURING THE HOUR ENDING AT 5 AM AST...WHILE
CHARLOTTE AMALIE REPORTED 0.09 INCHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND SAINT CROIX. THE MIMIC PRODUCT
SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER WEATHER MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DEMARCATING THE OLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME TO
ADD SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE ONLY
BEEN DOING A SO-SO JOB OF TIMING THESE SHOWERS AND BAND AND
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A GOOD SCATTERED POP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AND
WEST AS WELL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LONG RANGE NO
MAJOR FEATURES IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS BUT MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE FLOW AS IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDINESS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK..TIST...AND TJSJ DUE TO LOWER CIGS IN SHRA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER 19/16Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS INDICATE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES DUE TO SOME LINGERING NORTH SWELL
AND WIND WAVES. WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL HOLD SEAS IN THE AREA
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS INCREASE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 70 82 71 / 40 40 40 50
STT 84 70 84 73 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

I wanted to share this beautiful image of a few surfers in Rincon in Western Puerto Rico with that clear background of Desecheo island. That is the kind of weather the NE Caribbean is enjoying this day. Those who look at it and live in the U.S or other places in the world may be thinking of making a trip down to the warm Caribbean.

[msbee]

I wanted to share this beautiful image of a few surfers in Rinconi in Western Puerto Rico with that clear background of Desecheo island. That is the kind of weather the NE Caribbean is enjoying this day. Those who look at it and live in the U.S or other places in the world may be thinking of making a trip down to the warm Caribbean.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/298/rincon00006.jpg