Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EMBED ED IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OR MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BEFORE MID MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING TOWARD THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
AND ACROSS THE NORTH CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
GENERATE A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASE
THE SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES TROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z WITH VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ....TIST AND TISX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE ENE BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WND GUST TO NR 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHEAST
SWELL AND AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTIONS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AND FRESH WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 80 71 / 20 30 30 20
STT 83 72 83 72 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW LOCATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW LOCATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

A GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A PWAT MINIMA AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. GENERAL WND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NE AT 15-20 KTS BLO
15 KFT...THEN BACKING AND INCR W/HT ABV. SFC WND AT LCL TAF SITES
WILL BE FM NE AT 15-20 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS TIL 25/23Z THEN
DECR TO 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING IN MAINLY NE WIND WAVES AND SMALL NORTH
SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 70 80 / 30 30 20 20
STT 72 83 72 83 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JAN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE PW VALUES
TO 1.0 INCHES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHICH WAS NEAR 0.75 INCHES.
THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH ARE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THETA-E
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 320K THROUGH TONIGHT..DECREASING RAPIDLY
TO NEAR 312K...AND FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 312-315K THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. IN THE
MEANTIME...ONLY PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE AND AROUND
TIST...TISX...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 26/14Z. IN GENERAL NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OR FLYING HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE ENE BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WND GUST TO NR 20 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 81 71 / 30 20 20 20
STT 83 71 83 74 / 40 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good morning, I've just posted the observations from the weak to moderate cold surge that affected Central America last week:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2212279#p2212279

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST THU JAN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO FLORIDA ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY. IT WILL
RETREAT SLIGHTLY TO HISPANIOLA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY...THEN RETREAT TO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THAT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY ANOTHER HIGH BY WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE
NOTED IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
SECOND BAND OF CLOUDS IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST NORTH
OF 20 DEGREES NORTH AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BAND ARE ALSO
SHOWING UP ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. THE NAM IS
EXPECTING MOISTURE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AT 850 MB AND
NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR A FEW BULL`S
EYES. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT IT SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST
BELOW THAT TO BE NEARLY SATURATED. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE BAND
TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND
THEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO HAS NOT BEEN
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN EACH DAY FOR TWO WEEKS NOW AND IT IS A
SAFE BET THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS IN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MODEST POPS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING ON THE
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY COVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO...POSSIBLY SAVE
THE SOUTH COASTAL SLOPES AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. BUT...EVEN
THERE...SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE AREA. PATCHES OF MOISTURE THEN
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK IN
CONTINUING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 26/22Z. AFT
27/00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TIST AND TJSJ CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE BTW 10-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO NR
25 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN ALL
EXPOSED AREAS ROUGH AND CHOPPY. THESE SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 DAYS AND MAINTAIN THE REST OF THE WATERS EXPOSED TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 81 / 30 30 50 20
STT 71 83 73 85 / 40 40 30 20

[Macrocane]

Still warmer than normal temps in the nrothern half of Central America, fortunately a cold front is approaching us. These are the temepratures registred yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Cooler than normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.4°C (48.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.9°C (53.4°F) Coldest since December 7 2011

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Belize. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.7°C (54.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.9°C (67.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JAN 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH CONTINUES DOMINATING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EVEN DRIER DURING THE
WEEKEND AS PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 1.0 INCH...
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT ESPECIALLY TODAY...ARE THE
CHANCES FOR FIRES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. REFER
TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. AT THIS
MOMENT...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY APPEARS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE WEST AND SOUTH COASTS AS WATER VAPOR
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.7 INCHES OR TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT. SHOULD SEE A LOT LESS CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY WITH MAXT
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S AND MIN_RH IN THE 37-40%. CONDITIONS
SAT-MON NOT AS BAD AS TODAY BUT STILL CRITICAL. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS ON TAP FOR TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 71 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 73 84 74 / 40 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM SOUTH
AMERICA IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST WEST OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER TO EASTERN CUBA
THURSDAY AND RETURN TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THE ENTRANCE OF A STRONG JET STREAM OVER THE
AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF HAITI OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN BACK TO CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL RETURN TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CENTERED ON 30 DEGREES NORTH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY NOT SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED THROUGH CENTRAL
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO IN THE MIDDAY HOURS. CLOUDS HAVE FORMED...BUT
AS OF 3 PM AST...SHOWERS HAD NOT FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.

MOISTURE ENDS AROUND 6200 FEET OR AROUND 810 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE. NEVERTHELESS...BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
IN THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
OF NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COAST. SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER
OFF LATER NEXT WEEK.

RADAR INDICATED THAT NEARLY ALL OF PUERTO RICO NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM AGUADILLA TO PATILLAS RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN...A FEW
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH SINCE
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FELL AS LOW AS 0.7 INCH
AT SAINT CROIX...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BY 28/06Z. THE NAM MAKES THIS A
SHORT-LIVED PHENOMENON BUT THE GFS EXTENDS BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 850 MB...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS...THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HENCE WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF IN THE GOOD WIND FLOW AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO WILL RECEIVE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME AREAS
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE OVER ONE HALF INCH. AFTER A BREAK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS...BUT MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT BRIEF SHRAS ARE EXPECTED IN NE PR AFT 28/04Z THAT
MAY BRING MOMENTARY MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HOVER AT OR NEAR 7 FEET IN THE EXPOSED WATERS AND
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW SEAS IN THE
OPEN AREAS TO GO MUCH BELOW 6 FEET HOWEVER. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOST OPEN WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 71 81 / 60 60 30 20
STT 72 84 74 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS OCCURRING
NOW...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY AND MODEL DATA...OPTED TO
DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...
BUT A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A COUPLE OF SMALL WILDFIRES TO FLARE-UP
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND WEST PUERTO
RICO...WHERE FUEL DRYING CONTINUES. SMALL FIRES WERE OBSERVED (BY
ME) YESTERDAY NEAR MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WAS REPORTED IN GUAYAMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 40 30 20 30
STT 77 74 84 73 / 20 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

A cold surge has been affecting Central America and the minimum temps were cooler today than yesterday in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. These are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. Near normal in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.9°C (44.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.2°C (77.4°F) The day before it registered 29.7°C (85.5°F) The warmest since November 16 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F) The day before it registered 37°C (99°F) The warmest since Spetember 8 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F) Warmest since December 22
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.7°C (54.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.3°C (66.7°F)

[cycloneye]

The scattered passing showers pattern will continue for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
NORTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. A WEAK JET WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS STARTING TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WITH PATCHES
OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY WAS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
YESTERDAY. SHOWERS DRIFTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. AS OF 3 PM AST NO SHOWERS HAD BEEN OBSERVED IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO OR SAINT CROIX...BUT SAINT THOMAS DID HAVE A LIGHT
SHOWER MID MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG BAND OF FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES AT THOSE TIMES. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST BTW 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SMALL SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 29/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DOWN BELOW 7 FEET AT THE MOMENT IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER WINDS ARE
INCREASING AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ATLANTIC...THROUGH
THE PASSAGES AND BY MID WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL OPEN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RADAR DID SHOW A STRONG SMOKE PLUME OUT OF WESTERN
SALINAS MUNICIPALITY. SMOKE WAS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PONCE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS AND LIKELY NO ALLEVIATION OF THE DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 70 82 / 30 30 40 50
STT 73 84 72 83 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...
WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AMD MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOOKS CAN BE
DECEIVING...AS IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. BANDS AND
PATCHES OF SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH YET ANOTHER
OCCURRING NOW...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH AS INTERMITTENT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD SLOWLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SMALL WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND WEST PUERTO RICO...WHERE
FUEL DRYING CONTINUES. YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WAS REPORTED
IN GUAYAMA YESTERDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 81 72 / 70 40 40 50
STT 79 72 83 73 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

A quake occured near Martinique this morning. Get all the details about it on the Caribbean seismic activity thread at Geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2212459#p2212459

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM SOUTH AMERICA WILL SHIFT WEST TO EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND RETURN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY ENDING UP IN
THE FAR WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MIGRATE
TO CUBA DURING THE WEEK...RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY TRAILING A LONG RIDGE
BEHIND IT. THROUGH IT ALL MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLUMPS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAVE BECOME QUITE
DISTINCT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE THEM THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE MOVING
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE WAY TOWARD EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND WERE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...BUT CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE LEVEL...BUT NO LARGE RAINFALL EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...AND NO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
LIKELY ON THE NORTH THROUGH EAST FLANKS OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH
AND MVFR AS INTERMITTENT BANDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. TJSJ 29/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 15-30K FEET...AND WESTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE ALL BELOW 7 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
JUST A FEW EXCURSIONS ABOVE 7 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY. EXPECT THAT
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE END OF THE MONTH THOSE EXCURSIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FREQUENT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANNOUNCING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY. BY MID WEEK SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF OUR OPEN WATERS DUE TO THE
INCREASING GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL
BUT THE MOST PROTECTED WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SMOKE SIGNATURES DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST WERE
AGAIN OBSERVED ON RADAR COMING FROM THE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF AIBONITO AND FROM GUAYAMA AND SALINAS. THIS AREA HAS CONTINUED
DRY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE RELIEF. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S ON SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 81 / 60 60 70 70
STT 73 84 74 84 / 40 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLC TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A SIG INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED
TO PAST FEW DAYS AS SEEN ON 00Z JSJ RAOB AND BETTER MOISTURE IS
SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE ATLC PER BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. THIS GIVES CREDENCE TO MODELS WHICH SHOW A SIG
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHRAS OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT MID WEEK. TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SHRAS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL CAUSE CIGS AT AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE TUE AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN.
ALTHOUGH...WW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT AT
FCST POINT PR_N WILL HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER CYCLE AS NEARBY BUOY
41053 ONLY 5 FT SEAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOUD COVER THIS WEEK COULD BE THE MAIN
INHIBITING/LIMITING FACTOR FROM AN OTHERWISE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
SFC AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER MON AND TUE WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WED AND THU. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TUE-THU IN THE
15G25KT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 81 / 60 60 70 70
STT 73 80 73 80 / 50 50 70 70

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures registered in Central America on January 28 2012

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Warmer than normal in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.2°C (36.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.2°C (57.6°F) Coldest since December 27 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Belize and Honduras. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The pattern of the trade wind scattered showers continues at least thru tommorow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST MON JAN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE...SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING...AS IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY...AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL BANDS
AND PATCHES OF SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH YET ANOTHER OCCURRING NOW AND A
SECOND EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTH...EAST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AN
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS IS INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
VCSH AND SHRA. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY
MONDAY AM. OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL CAUSE
CIGS AT AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...AS NEXT
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BASED ON THE
LATEST BUOY AND MODEL DATA...OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS (AMZ710) BEGINNING AT 9 AM AST
THIS MORNING AND THEN FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE STARTING LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR OTHER WATERS LATER
ON. THE SITUATION SHOULD REMAIN BORDERLINE AT 7 TO LOCALLY 8 FEET
AND HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY THROUGH ONLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NOW...SO AS TO NOT TIE US INTO A LONGER ADVISORY AND TO AVOID ANY
FLIP-FLOPPING. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY...EXCEPT AMZ710 WHERE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT 9 AM AST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOUD COVER THIS WEEK COULD BE THE MAIN
INHIBITING/LIMITING FACTOR FROM AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SURFACE
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND AN
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 60 70 70 10
STT 80 73 80 73 / 50 70 70 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST MON JAN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS GUIDANCE...A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED IN THE LAST DAYS...BANDS OF SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. DUE TO THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEAVING ONLY
MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A MORE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES AND THEREFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW OF THEN AFFECTING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
VCSH...SHRA AND MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT TJPS TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON NORTHERN COASTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFT 31/12Z. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TIL 31/13Z IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 81 / 70 70 10 20
STT 73 80 73 80 / 70 70 20 20

[Macrocane]

It has been the same story most of January as above average lows were registered yesterday in the northern part of Central America although a new cold surge began yesterday and the temperatures today were closer to normal. These are the observations from yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in Panama and Costa Rica (except for San Jose and other parts in Central Costa Rica that registered cooler than normal lows).

Belize city, Belize 23°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.7°C (62.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.2°C (36.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (61.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (65.3°F) Warmest since December 5 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.7°C (57.6°F) Coldest since February 23 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (73.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.9°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica. Near normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.9°C (77.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.7°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.4°C (65.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.0°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.9°C (79.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.7°C (93.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.7°C (63.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (69.6°F) Warmest since December 10 2011

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST MON JAN 30 2012

.UPDATE...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...OCCASIONAL BANDS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND REACH THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT QUICK BURSTS OF MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
INHERITED SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE...AS WELL AS SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO THE MARINE FORECAST GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MARINE WEATHER BULLETINS AND MESSAGES.

.AVIATION UPDATE...OVERALL VFR CONDS STILL EXPECTED...HOWEVER PASSING
LOW LEVEL CLDS AND SHRA WILL CONT TO AFFECT LOCAL FLYING AREA EN ROUTE
BTW ERN PR AND THE VI AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. LOW LEVEL WND BLO 15K
FT GENERALLY FM THE EAST 15-20 KTS...BCMG WESTERLY ABV 20K FT...WITH
WND MAX AROUND 55 KTS NR 35K FT. OVERALL SFC WND OF 10 KTS WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS IN PASSING SHRA. BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR W/PASSING SHRA AND
LOW CLDS OVER ERN INTERIOR TIL AT LEAST 31/13Z