Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Well, it appears another potential hard freeze by tomorrow morning may be in the cards. It is already below freezing at 8:15 p.m. measured at my weather station. Currently at 31.4 degrees. I am surprised at bit by the fact that the wind has gone calm currently. This has allowed for radiational cooling conditions at the moment. Large and strong Arctic High (1042 mb) is now builiding into the Carolinas and I will be interested to see if the wind stays light throughout the night. If it does, we could see temps end up a few degrees colder than initially forecasted across at least the northern peninsula by tomorrow morning.

[northjaxpro]

It bottomed out at 30 degrees at 1:31 a.m. and the temperature has been holding steady all night Consecutive freezes the past two mormings. Currently 31.3 degrees. We have had a north wind from 5-10 mph all throughout the early morning pre-dawn hours. There was enough wind to keep temperatures from dropping at least another 3 to 5 degrees for this morning's low. It also kept frost at a minimum as well. Also the NE wind is causing the dramatic impact with the temperatures of course right here in Jax proper. East of the St. Johns River to the coast,, temps are some 15 degrees warmer than they are at my locale. The moderating influence of the Atlantic is indeed a strong one this time of the year.

Well, one more cool day on tap, although it will be about 10 degrees warmer for max temperaturee than yesterday when the max temp only reached 45 degrees .

Today Northeast wind will blow as Arctic High currently anchored across the Carolinas will begin to shift east and the onshore flow will really commence and the moderation of temps will truly be back starting Tuesday.

[psyclone]

41 this morning at KTPA and 42 at KPIE so this morning was 6 degrees warmer than Sunday. we should tack on another 7-10 degrees tonight and hit 70 tomorrow. it looks like a stretch of fantastic weather is on the way...the type that draws so many here in the winter.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it looks like back to the all-too-familiar SE ridge again with no significant cold fronts for Florida in the foreseeable future.

[boca]

As long as the NAO stays positive winter that we had for 24 hours is over here in South Florida.I think winter as I remember it is a thing of the past.

[psyclone]

As long as the NAO stays positive winter that we had for 24 hours is over here in South Florida.I think winter as I remember it is a thing of the past.

It's over until it isn't. It's only a matter of time before Florida gets creamed by a big freeze event. It's a mistake to confuse a long run of good luck with a permanent change. As a warm weather lover I'm enjoying our streak...but if folks in central florida start planting coconut palms...it'll be a matter of time before they're reduced to kindling. Having said that, the odds are tilting in our favor once again this year based upon the calendar and the long wave pattern developing which favors above normal temps for the foreseeable future. I'll take it.

[Patrick99]

I was out of town and missed this brief spate of cool air, mostly, though yesterday morning was at least a little chilly.

Now, getting into mid-January, the clock is really ticking on more chilly air for SFL. NWS Miami has very moderate, breezy weather forecasted all the way out to MLK Day, and the Weather Channel seems to show a mild front coming through on January 23 in the long range. Not too much to say about the rest of January, it seems.

I seem to recall it not necessarily being out of the realm of possibility for it to get cold with a positive NAO, it's just that the duration of that cold is never for very long.

[psyclone]

mid to upper 70's for highs and low 60's for lows with sunny conditions for the duration of the next week around here. That's as good as it gets..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Chamber of Commerce weather looks to be on tap for many days to come around the peninsula. You would think that Old Man Winter has gone into a deep hibernation (or even gone for good seemingly)with the model guidance forecast of at least mild to unseasonably warm temps at least for the next 10 days or possibly a bit longer.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't know how cool it will get next weekend. If at all. But atleast it's a front.

Our next potential pattern changer will be a frontal system
pushing across the nation later next week. Winds will become
southerly as the front pushes across the state on Thursday into
Friday to close out the extended period. As the front approaches,
dewpoints will increase a bit along with the rain and thunderstorm
potential.

[NDG]

Yeap, back to FL chamber wx, the difference this January comapared to Jan of last year is that it was a fairly rainy month across most of peninsula, temps were slightly below average, rest of this looks to be about the same mostly dry, warm with occasional short lived cold shots.

[psyclone]

Right on schedule the pine trees have kicked off the pollen season here. Beautiful weather on tap for multiple days.

[MetroMike]

Right on schedule the pine trees have kicked off the pollen season here. Beautiful weather on tap for multiple days.

How can you tell this is happening?

[gatorcane]

Models hinting at the cold returning to Florida in the long-range.

[psyclone]

Right on schedule the pine trees have kicked off the pollen season here. Beautiful weather on tap for multiple days.

How can you tell this is happening?

the trees drop little brown caterpillar shaped buds that are full of yellow pollen. this usually starts within a few days of jan 10 every year. I have a lot of pines around me so I notice.

[psyclone]

Models hinting at the cold returning to Florida in the long-range.

The CPC outlooks are showing less above normal anomalies...and cold returning to the west so I expect it's just a matter of time.

[NDG]

Still not the best sypnotics forecasted towards the end of the month, though the NAO is expected to go slightly negative the AO remains positive with the PNA going back negative, you need that strong positive PNA pattern to help out the slight -NAO for any significant cold air pattern to stay around FL or for the freezing line reach or go past the I-4 corridor.

[northjaxpro]

This pretty much sums its up NDG. Teleconnections continue to not align favorably for a very significant cold spell for the Florida peninsula.

We will get a bit of a cool down at the end of the month, but definitely nothing extremely below normal. The only possible thing I noticed is that the southern branch of the jet may get somewhat active by the beginning of February. We definitely need more rain and it will be interesting to see if a more.wet pattern may come in the long range.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well it's a start in about a week. Although by the time front comes we get a 5 degree drop and a shower. Usually alot of model hype that backs off when front gets closer. As per NWS Miami 1/16:

Extended forecast...
the long range models are showing the high over South Florida to
break down this weekend as low pressure develops over Texas.
The low will then move slowly northeast into the Tennessee Valley
by early next week pushing a strong cold front southeast into
South Florida.

This will keep a southerly wind flow over South Florida this
weekend along with dry weather, before the winds become southwest
ahead of the cold front and allow for scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms to affect the area early next week.

The long range models are also showing that there could be a mid
to upper level jet moving through the area early next week. If
this trend continues, then a few of the storms could become
strong over South Florida early next week. Therefore, stay tuned
to our forecast through out the week for the weather for early
next week.

[psyclone]

FWIW the 8-14 day outlook has Florida at or below normal....for the first time in ages. This would imply a big time cool down by the end of the month. Considering the skill in these forecasts...I believe it. And, as the MIA discussion mentioned, perhaps some active weather beforehand. things may start to get interesting soon.