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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 6:59 pm
by Brent
gpsnowman wrote:This is just terrible. April was great temp wise with a great month of below normal readings......with not much rain. May has been just the opposite temp wise without any rain. Without looking at the numbers I think the DFW area has been above normal every day this month with no end in sight......with not much rain. This is May!!!! This summer is going to be brutal from I-70 south if things do not change quickly, which I do not think they will. I feel bad or our West Texas friends although they could see some much needed rain in the next few days. Not so much in North Texas. Man I miss thunderstorms. I blame 57 for all this.
I just knew we'd pay for April we can't be that lucky
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 9:39 pm
by bubba hotep
The 00z 3k NAM has 5 - 8" of rain just NW of the airport in the DFW area lol....
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 10:15 pm
by TheProfessor
bubba hotep wrote:The 00z 3k NAM has 5 - 8" of rain just NW of the airport in the DFW area lol....
I'll take it!
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 10:18 pm
by Brent
bubba hotep wrote:The 00z 3k NAM has 5 - 8" of rain just NW of the airport in the DFW area lol....
Is this like when it had all that snow in the winter?
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 10:53 pm
by weatherdude1108
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:31 pm
by weatherdude1108
000
FXUS64 KEWX 142005
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
305 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Afternoon temperatures are generally in the 80s and lower 90s across
most areas, except for a few 70s across the southern Edwards Plateau
where persistent cloud cover has kept afternoon temperatures cooler
than surrounding areas. South central Texas is currently free from
any convection. However, we are beginning to see some storms fire
over the higher terrain of Mexico, west of the Rio Grande. Continued
storm development is also noted over Brewster and Pecos counties in
southwest Texas.
Through late this afternoon, most of the hi-res models show good
agreement in convection continuing to flourish over southwest Texas
and the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande. By late afternoon/
early evening, some of this convection will begin moving into western
Val Verde county. By that time, the mid-level capping inversion
should be eroded given strong heating in the low-levels. With the cap
eroded, this will aid in continued storm development through most of
the evening hours across the Rio Grande plains. SPC continues to
maintain a Marginal risk area for the Rio Grande plains and we have
continued to mention this in the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The main severe weather hazards with any storms that manage to
become strong to severe will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Some of the hi-res models show enough cold-pool generation to
promote continued thunderstorm development farther east into the Hill
Country. While we can`t completely rule this out, we should begin to
see atmospheric stabilization during the late evening hours, with
increasing convective inhibition. At this time, suspect most activity
will tend to weaken as it approaches the Highway 83 corridor, or
roughly a Concan to Carrizo Springs line.
On Tuesday, a fairly active west-southwest flow aloft remains to our
west. This along with another round of strong afternoon surface
heating should yield some isolated to scattered convection across the
Rio Grande plains into portions of the western Hill Country. It is
unclear if this convection will manage to push into the I-35
corridor, but we did include a low chance for storms across Llano,
Burnet and Williamson counties. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with
the convection, but we would prefer to see a little more continuity
before increasing rain chances. Otherwise, look for another hot and
humid day on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
For mid to late this week, look for above normal temperatures and
dry conditions as the mid-level subtropical ridge axis builds over
northern Mexico and western Texas. Increased mixing in the low-levels
should yield lower dewpoints in the afternoons. This along with a
strengthening low-level thermal ridge will allow temperatures to warm
to well above normal levels for Wednesday through Friday. We expect
highs mostly in the 90s, with near 100 along the Rio Grande. At this
time, heat index values are not expected to be much higher than the
daily high temperatures due to increased mixing/lower dewpoints in
the afternoon hours.
For the upcoming weekend into early next week, the subtropical ridge
axis begins to shift eastward as a broad upper trough moves into the
desert southwest. This should allow temperatures to drop slightly,
but we still expect above normal heat and dry conditions for most
areas. The one exception could be out west along the Rio Grande in
Val Verde county where some isolated convection may move in from the
higher terrain of Mexico.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:59 pm
by JDawg512
Today is misleading because it seems like rain or storms want to develop with the way the sky looks but it's just a combo of broken cirrus, short cumulus and haze which give off a dark sky kinda vibe looking in certain directions. Makes me super frustrated.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:06 pm
by weatherdude1108
JDawg512 wrote:Today is misleading because it seems like rain or storms want to develop with the way the sky looks but it's just a combo of broken cirrus, short cumulus and haze which give off a dark sky kinda vibe looking in certain directions. Makes me super frustrated.
Me too! We need to squash this Dry Miser.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 5:39 pm
by bubba hotep
FWD bumped me up to 40% chance of storms tonight! Woo
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 8:45 pm
by weatherdude1108
Eyeballing those storms around Mason. So close, yet so far.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 8:52 pm
by JDawg512
weatherdude1108 wrote:Eyeballing those storms around Mason. So close, yet so far.
I know right..
I'm glad that area is getting rain though cause they really need it but I really wish that cluster would scoot over a bit more to the east.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 10:07 pm
by Yukon Cornelius
Storms up this way are just kind of fading into nothing.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 7:44 am
by Yukon Cornelius
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Storms up this way are just kind of fading into nothing.
The heavy stuff faded out before it got to us and also ended up slipping North. We still picked up 1/4'' though, which will help.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 10:33 am
by bubba hotep
The CAMs are all over the place as far as storm chances in DFW over the next 48 hrs. Currently getting a thunder shower here in downtown.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:25 pm
by bubba hotep
Watching that cluster of storms in C. OK. Surface heating is aiding in the development of a corridor that could support these storms on a trip down into N. Texas.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:33 pm
by bubba hotep
Latest run of the HRRR seems to be picking up on this and has the cluster drop south along I35 all the way into S. Texas.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:57 pm
by wxman57
Sure is pleasant out there today. No more nasty cold weather. I think I'll keep the heat going through next winter...
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:31 pm
by weatherdude1108
wxman57 wrote:Sure is pleasant out there today. No more nasty cold weather. I think I'll keep the heat going through next winter...
Ugh
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 5:18 pm
by Texas Snowman
wxman57 wrote:Sure is pleasant out there today. No more nasty cold weather. I think I'll keep the heat going through next winter...
And you wonder why you don’t have many friends...
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 5:20 pm
by Texas Snowman
Two rounds of storms here today in Denison (overnight and this afternoon). My back patio flooded both times!
