Texas Summer 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Speaking of outflows (mentioned in my previous post). Ugh. My experience with outflows are they feel good with a little wind, and it smells like rain, but no rain falls. It's still a ways out. Lots of tweaking I'm sure.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 061933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Streamer showers that were developing SW of San Antonio have since
dissipated and the only convective activity is confined to the
Coastal Plains. Seabreeze should push current activity a little
farther north toward I-35. High temps for today will be just about
what they were yesterday with the cloud cover. Easterly wave that
gave us increased chances for rain these past couple days has since
moved off into Mexico. Chances for rain tomorrow will drop off and
the high temp will be a degree or two warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Mild warming trend will take place for start of the long term period
with dwindling rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday. However, the
subtropical ridge is expected shift out west during this period and
a trough will carve out over the central US. This will open up the
chance for a rain making disturbance to work it`s way into our area.
A weak frontal boundary looks to make it`s way southward out of the
Central Plains and into Central Texas by Friday. The placement and
timing of this boundary is still up for debate. Both the GFS and
ECMWF have a good looking line of convection tracking southward and
then stalling over the central part of the state, but a physical
boundary with a windshift or change of moisture values is not clear.
This gives the impression that the boundary will be fairly washed out
by the time it gets to our CWA, with most convection over the area
being primarily driven by outflows from previous convection. Best
chances for rain are Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Along
with the chances for rain, high temps for most of the region will be
kept to the low to mid 90`s going through the weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

Sprinkling here at the office!

[South Texas Storms]

Man this thread sure is quiet with the increasing possibility of a rare major rain event in August across the state.

I guess most people are in believe it when I see it mode.

Or maybe most of our posters in north TX are dreaming about snow.

[Ntxw]

Man this thread sure is quiet with the increasing possibility of a rare major rain event in August across the state.

I guess most people are in believe it when I see it mode.

Or maybe most of our posters in north TX are dreaming about snow.

We've all about had it with summer. We're just waiting to post in the fall thread. Cold mongers are usually optimistic at the beginning of summer posting about 2007. By July we are waiting for a weak tropical system to save us. When August rolls around all that is left is below.

[Brent]

Man this thread sure is quiet with the increasing possibility of a rare major rain event in August across the state.

I guess most people are in believe it when I see it mode.

Or maybe most of our posters in north TX are dreaming about snow.

It's both for me... today going to my hot car outside at work I'm like "this rain can't come soon enough"(and still some skepticism as to how good it'll be) and then yeah, there's the inevitable discussions of winter... I mean you can count the weeks now...

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you think we actually get a WWB strong enough to effect things? It's down to 0.1 now for 3.4 region.

[Cpv17]

Man this thread sure is quiet with the increasing possibility of a rare major rain event in August across the state.

I guess most people are in believe it when I see it mode.

Or maybe most of our posters in north TX are dreaming about snow.

Well tbh I’m not expecting much out of it for my area anyway. Might get an inch out if it around here with the way it’s looking now.

[weatherdude1108]

Man this thread sure is quiet with the increasing possibility of a rare major rain event in August across the state.

I guess most people are in believe it when I see it mode.

Or maybe most of our posters in north TX are dreaming about snow.

We've all about had it with summer. We're just waiting to post in the fall thread. Cold mongers are usually optimistic at the beginning of summer posting about 2007. By July we are waiting for a weak tropical system to save us. When August rolls around all that is left is below.

Yeah, with the exception of early July for me when I got 5 inches, we have been teased more often than not this year with fantasy models plastered with greens and blues, which end up being reds. I think we're all tired and have a "whatever" kind of attitude at this point.

[Haris]

Im blessed that in all weeks this summer , the wedding in DFW is this week!

Headed towards DFW Thurs morning!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you think we actually get a WWB strong enough to effect things? It's down to 0.1 now for 3.4 region.

The WWB show now is fairly potent coming for the IDL and the warm pool below 180W is stout again. I am still in camp of weak-mod Nino modoki for Winter.

[bubba hotep]

[Yukon Cornelius]

beautiful

[Haris]

The 12z EURO IS DISGUSTING!

Matches the GFS for the S half of the state. This model has become garbage long range.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z EURO IS DISGUSTING!

Matches the GFS for the S half of the state. This model has become garbage long range.

Yep unfortunately all of the 12z models trended drier across the southern half of the state. Not good...

[weatherdude1108]

This looks like there is slightly more QPF for our area on the 12Z, versus the 0Z. But I may be reading it wrong(?).

0Z GFS


12Z GFS

[Haris]

[quote="weatherdude1108"]This looks like there is slightly more QPF for our area on the 12Z, versus the 0Z. But I may be reading it wrong(?).

0Z GFS


12Z GFS


That is thru hour 372 . That rain in fantasy lol . if u look thru hour 180 , its drier...

[Portastorm]

The 12z EURO IS DISGUSTING!

Matches the GFS for the S half of the state. This model has become garbage long range.

Yep unfortunately all of the 12z models trended drier across the southern half of the state. Not good...

A word of caution for you cliff divers out there ... the set up we'll be dealing with involves a stalling/decaying frontal boundary and multiple mesoscale features. Someone is going to get a lot of rain and some folks won't. Climatologically speaking it seems smart IMO to assume that the "someone" will be in North Texas as fronts in August usually don't sink south of Waco. Yet these systems can sometimes push boundaries far enough south to initiate convection south of Waco. There will be some rain in South Texas, maybe not a lot. But I wouldn't trust the globals too much at this point in terms of where they're picking winners and losers in the rain derby.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z EURO IS DISGUSTING!

Matches the GFS for the S half of the state. This model has become garbage long range.

Yep unfortunately all of the 12z models trended drier across the southern half of the state. Not good...

A word of caution for you cliff divers out there ... the set up we'll be dealing with involves a stalling/decaying frontal boundary and multiple mesoscale features. Someone is going to get a lot of rain and some folks won't. Climatologically speaking it seems smart IMO to assume that the "someone" will be in North Texas as fronts in August usually don't sink south of Waco. Yet these systems can sometimes push boundaries far enough south to initiate convection south of Waco. There will be some rain in South Texas, maybe not a lot. But I wouldn't trust the globals too much at this point in terms of where they're picking winners and losers in the rain derby.

Good advice...it's not the front I'm worried about, it's the models keeping a disturbance stalled across west TX now which would keep most of the rain west of us. I'm hopeful the models will shift back east in the coming days, but today's trends are not good for south central TX rain.

[Cpv17]

Yep unfortunately all of the 12z models trended drier across the southern half of the state. Not good...

A word of caution for you cliff divers out there ... the set up we'll be dealing with involves a stalling/decaying frontal boundary and multiple mesoscale features. Someone is going to get a lot of rain and some folks won't. Climatologically speaking it seems smart IMO to assume that the "someone" will be in North Texas as fronts in August usually don't sink south of Waco. Yet these systems can sometimes push boundaries far enough south to initiate convection south of Waco. There will be some rain in South Texas, maybe not a lot. But I wouldn't trust the globals too much at this point in terms of where they're picking winners and losers in the rain derby.

Good advice...it's not the front I'm worried about, it's the models keeping a disturbance stalled across west TX now which would keep most of the rain west of us. I'm hopeful the models will shift back east in the coming days, but today's trends are not good for south central TX rain.

And that’s why I was never really excited about this to begin with lol

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the I-30 corridor will be the big winner with this rain event: