Texas Fall 2018

[BrokenGlass]

While we are sharing pics, anybody notice the strong pink hue in the sky 2 nights ago on the back edge of Willa?

Red skies at night?


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[Ntxw]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/dsvfJA/1-E3-DDD3-F-E882-44-F9-B33-C-62-C154-FB1-D01.jpg [/url]



While we are sharing pics, anybody notice the strong pink hue in the sky 2 nights ago on the back edge of Willa?

It looks to me like the red sunset or sunrise coupled with a cool fog in the distance or proximity.

[bubba hotep]

FV3 and Euro paint a below normal Halloween day. 60s for most falling into the 50s by sundown. So a cool one with chances for rain as the front comes through the night before or during depending on your location. Milder days beforehand from now until then with cool mornings. Pretty much chamber of commerce weather the next several days. Perfect for a cookout as we dry out!

GFS is slower and stormier than the Euro right now but some earlier runs of the Euro also showed the slower stormier solution. Svr wx for Halloween could be on the table if the slower solutions verify.

Some thoughts from FWD:

The potential for strong storms within the warm sector will hinge
on the timing of the cold front, which matches the disparate
arrival schedule of the shortwave. The slower GFS, while an
outlier, would provide the greater likelihood for more intense
convective elements Wednesday afternoon, mainly within Central
and East Texas. In any event, the rain chances will continue well
after the frontal passage with additional moisture flux above the
frontal layer and lingering forcing for ascent still upstream.
With a decent fetch of Pacific moisture within the downstream
subtropical jet (albeit far less intense than our most recent rain
event), some heavy rainfall will be possible, but only the more
southerly ECMWF solution may be able to fully realize this
potential. While another rain event is likely, there remains some
uncertainty with its evolution and timing. The resulting mesoscale
features and their impacts on these forecast details will come
into better focus as the event approaches.

Euro came in slower at 00z and looks like a potential event for East Texas. Still 100+ hrs out so no point in breaking down smaller scale things but QPF can be a good proxy at longer ranges. Euro shows a streak pattern vs a line of storms forced along the front.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro comes in slower again, big system kicks across the state on Halloween day.

[Brent]

GFS is really close to a snowstorm in N TX at 384 hours sign of the times

[bubba hotep]

Euro has the ingredients for a Monster winter storm at D10

[1900hurricane]

That looks like it could be a quality warm sector.

[weatherdude1108]

Went down to Mansfield Dam yesterday for my very first time. I had not been there before yesterday. I was at the top of the dam, not the bottom. Seeing it on video or in pictures does not give it justice. Amazing to actually see and hear the power of that water coming out of the dam, with just four floodgates. and I was higher up!

The shear volume and velocity of the water coming out of those gates is astonishing to watch and hear in person! Almost hypnotic.

url=https://ibb.co/dGukoA][/url]

[Ntxw]

For North Texas still looking like a mild start to Halloween turning cooler the rest of the day with stormy weather/light rain. Cool to 50s by nightfall, not the best trick or treat weather but if you are into the gloomy ominous skies type stuff for the holiday then it's in your pot! CapnCrunch Halloween -> Winter projections will be interesting. The high will be earlier in the day and low may be Weds night with rain. 70/48 is the forecast temp from the NWS.

East and SE Texas will stay milder longer, thus heavier rain and storms before cooler air funnels in later Halloween night.

Central Texas is in a similar boat as North Texas.

[wxman22]

Getting concerned that there could be a severe weather event across east and southeast Texas on Halloween.

[Cpv17]

Getting concerned that there could be a severe weather event across east and southeast Texas on Halloween.

It looks like areas east of 45 stand the best chance for rain.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is pretty widespread amounts near 1" for the DFW area on Halloween. The airport needs about 1/2" to reach the 50" before Nov 1.

[AubreyStorm]

12z Euro comes in slower again, big system kicks across the state on Halloween day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018102712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018102712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_6.png

That’s snow for north of Texas? I live in Denton.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro comes in slower again, big system kicks across the state on Halloween day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018102712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018102712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_6.png

That’s snow for north of Texas? I live in Denton.

No, just storms and rain, timing of things will depend how intense the storms are for N. Texas.

[bubba hotep]

D3 slight for a big chunk of SE TX

[CaptinCrunch]

For North Texas still looking like a mild start to Halloween turning cooler the rest of the day with stormy weather/light rain. Cool to 50s by nightfall, not the best trick or treat weather but if you are into the gloomy ominous skies type stuff for the holiday then it's in your pot! CapnCrunch Halloween -> Winter projections will be interesting. The high will be earlier in the day and low may be Weds night with rain. 70/48 is the forecast temp from the NWS.

East and SE Texas will stay milder longer, thus heavier rain and storms before cooler air funnels in later Halloween night.

Central Texas is in a similar boat as North Texas.

We shall see, the normal H/L temp range for October 31 is 73/52, and right now Wednesday looks cooler than that with 60's/40's and wet.

[weatherdude1108]

Here's a video from this past Saturday at Mansfield Dam with the four floodgates that were open. That was impressive in itself! I cannot imagine what all 24 floodgates opened would look like!

I wonder if they rotate which flood gates to use(?), or if they use the same ones (i.e., the same exact one, two, three, four gates, etc.). Seems like changing which ones to open and close would ensure they are all working. Or maybe they base it on the location along the base of the dam(?). Anyway, I'm sure they have that figured out.

View My Video

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is slower again, Halloween looking like a washout for DFW with widespread 2"+ totals.

[Haris]

WOW

[gboudx]

It's not looking good for the kiddo's on Halloween. Nor is it looking good for my waistline as I'll be forced to eat all the candy.