Texas Spring 2022

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado emergency north of Little Rock. Monster on the ground

[Ntxw]

Tornado emergency north of Little Rock. Monster on the ground

That's one heck of a signature on radar, one of the scariest this year thus far.

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado emergency north of Little Rock. Monster on the ground

That's one heck of a signature on radar, one of the scariest this year thus far.

Yeah for sure. Not too far away from where the 2014 monster tracked

[rwfromkansas]

I just saw a GIF of the tornado on FB. One of the craziest tornadoes I've ever seen. Gorgeous symmetrical area of debris encircling the main funnel. Hopefully it dissipates though..

[cheezyWXguy]

I just saw a GIF of the tornado on FB. One of the craziest tornadoes I've ever seen. Gorgeous symmetrical area of debris encircling the main funnel. Hopefully it dissipates though..

Can you link it? I must’ve missed the peak on radar because I never saw an especially prominent debris signature

[Ntxw]

I just saw a GIF of the tornado on FB. One of the craziest tornadoes I've ever seen. Gorgeous symmetrical area of debris encircling the main funnel. Hopefully it dissipates though..

Can you link it? I must’ve missed the peak on radar because I never saw an especially prominent debris signature

As it went over Mayflower and around Cato, Arkansas it was a classic hook with debris ball. It's probably been cycling since then.

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRR fires storms off the dryline and sends them NE through N. TX tomorrow but keeps Oklahoma mostly calm.

[rwfromkansas]

I think it wasn't that tornado since it was too light. Can't find the post anymore anyway.

[Ntxw]

00z HRRR fires storms off the dryline and sends them NE through N. TX tomorrow but keeps Oklahoma mostly calm.

Tomorrow will be more favorable for initiation. Fairly potent shortwave, should be a few big supercells during peak. Hard to pinpoint where it fires off but more likely than today. I'd say just S/SE of DFW hot zone tomorrow.

[txtwister78]

Definitely seeing a trend with the 0z HI-RES models (FV3, 3k NAM, WRF-NSSL and WRF-ARW2) tonight of some southward development along the dryline late afternoon tomorrow down into the SA/AUS region as well. Expecting those to be more isolated but with afternoon temps potentially climbing into the 90's, I think we should see the cap break here with some potentially big hailers with any storm that manages to fire (although isolated).

I wouldn't be surprised to see SPC extend the significant hatched area for hail down into the SA region in the next update based on model trends.

[cheezyWXguy]

The nam is out to lunch with those surface temps tomorrow afternoon. Shows Dallas at 74 at 4pm while all other cams are 80 or above. No wonder there’s so little initiation

[ElectricStorm]

OK downgraded to slight risk but now HRRR is showing cells forming over C OK. Hopefully anything big misses the populated areas.

[bubba hotep]

Monster cap on the 12z FWD sounding. Probably a repeat of yesterday, a few attempts but no rain for most.

The ensembles do look wetter in the long range but if trends hold true we will probably see that dry up.

[HockeyTx82]

Monster cap on the 12z FWD sounding. Probably a repeat of yesterday, a few attempts but no rain for most.

The ensembles do look wetter in the long range but if trends hold true we will probably see that dry up.

How does it compare to yesterday? What about the disturbance coming out of Mexico. Will that be able to break it?

[mcallum177]

When they say lift and forcing are you guys referring to red areas of vorticity on 500mb? Or close ripples in the pressure lines at 500mb? I'm confused how to see lift on the different model layers

Really unstable environment but no forcing to really get going. Some of the best fuel was over the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/KW73l1t.png

[Edwards Limestone]

Monster cap on the 12z FWD sounding. Probably a repeat of yesterday, a few attempts but no rain for most.

The ensembles do look wetter in the long range but if trends hold true we will probably see that dry up.

Strong cap further south as well at AUS/SAT. Heavy cloud cover/drizzle down here this AM.

[rwfromkansas]

The FWD graphic seems to be higher confidence than before and further west, so I am surprised to see the cap so strong. The cap is partly why I hate being this far south though I like Texas overall. It was usually much easier to break in KS.

[cheezyWXguy]

The FWD graphic seems to be higher confidence than before and further west, so I am surprised to see the cap so strong. The cap is partly why I hate being this far south though I like Texas overall. It was usually much easier to break in KS.

Hrrr yesterday held strong showing no initiation, even when other models like the nam started to cave. Showing storms today, with the cap weakening pretty significantly during the afternoon. I don’t think surface temps and instability will break the cap alone, but it looks like the forcing present today that wasn’t yesterday should make up the difference enough to fire a few storms off.

[dhweather]

Forecast sounding from the 12Z NAM for 4PM this afternoon at KFWD, steep lapse rates, CAPE above 3K, if the cap doesn't hold today, there's likely going to be some severe thunderstorms in North Texas.

[dhweather]

The 11Z HRRR is similar to the NAM, steep lapse rates, high CAPE, eroding cap.