MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...FAR NE AR...WRN TN AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...
   
   VALID 030006Z - 030130Z
   
   A LINE OF SUPERCELLS ONGOING ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR WILL CONTINUE TO
   HAVE A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF
   THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN TN AND WRN KY.
   THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTINUE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES. AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...LONG
   TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO CNTRL TN AND CNTRL KY AS
   THE SUPERCELLS TRACK EWD. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   34928659 35029019 35319072 36359013 37808890 37868570
   36978497

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...137...138...
   
   VALID 030210Z - 030415Z
   
   ...MULTIPLE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE
   REGION...
   
   00Z SOUNDING FROM LZK SUGGESTS HIGH QUALITY LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY
   ENVIRONMENT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHERE
   MULTIPLE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PERSIST. SEVERAL OF THESE
   STORMS ARE LONG-LIVED AND HAVE YET TO EXHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
   WEAKENING.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS ARE SHOWING
   RAPID RECOVERY INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE SIG TOR VALUES ARE NOW
   APPROACHING 8. TORNADIC THREAT REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   36118910 37458664 36738576 35728657 35048830 35088961

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN / CENTRAL AND NRN KY / OH / WRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 030227Z - 030400Z
   
   INTENSE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT OVER 55 KTS ACROSS ERN
   INDIANA INTO NRN KY. RADAR PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SHOW REAR
   INFLOW JET REFLECTION WITH LOW REFLECTIVITY HOLE JUST BEHIND MAIN
   BOW...SUGGESTING INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR NEWD INTO OH AND
   WRN WV.  EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS BOW INTO CENTRAL OH BY 4Z.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES GIVEN VERY STRONG
   EXTREME SHEAR IN PLACE...WITH EITHER EMBEDDED ROTATION SIGNATURES
   WITHIN LINE OR WITH WARM ADVECTION CELLS AHEAD OF LINE. GREATEST
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER KY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GREATER
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   39178558 40748636 41418590 41588362 41288267 39728204
   37768291 37558607

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH / WRN WV / ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030344Z - 030415Z
   
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
   OH...KY...AND WV.
   
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
   SPEEDS OVER 70 MPH WERE RECENTLY MEASURED OVER NRN KY. DESPITE
   RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND VILS...FORCING REMAIN STRONG AS
   REFLECTED IN SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...
   
   37518348 39908350 40048060 37818076

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030539Z - 030715Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN AL AFTER 07Z.  A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   A BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE
   TN AND EXTREME NRN MS EARLY THIS MORNING.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE
   WERE SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE PORTION OF
   THE LINE ACROSS NRN MS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NWRN TIP OF AL BY
   07Z. 
   
   FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AL WILL
   DESTABILIZE GRADUALLY AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND SHOULD SUPPORT
   SFC-BASED STORMS.  HTX HODOGRAPH SHOWS 40+ KT SFC-1KM SHEAR DESPITE
   A VEERED FLOW REGIME.  ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. 
   
   GIVEN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE...A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
   07Z FOR NRN AL.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...
   
   34888796 34878569 33788549 33808811

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN APPALACHIANS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030716Z - 030845Z
   
   A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NC...UPSTATE SC
   AND PARTS OF NRN GA AFTER 08-09Z.  AS A RESULT...A WW MAY BECOME
   REQUIRED...STAYING N OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.
   
   A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ESEWD ACROSS
   ERN/SRN TN THIS MORNING WITH COLD POOL DYNAMICS INCREASING.  TSTMS
   ARE EMBEDDED IN A STRONG WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.  THIS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH LOCAL
   ACCELERATION OF WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN GA WHERE AIR
   MASS IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER NE.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   34878535 35688366 36008207 35728160 34928175 34158443
   34068526

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...
   
   VALID 030757Z - 030900Z
   
   WT 151 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 09Z AND TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
   WATCH BY THEN. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL/TORNADO
   THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF NRN MS NEAR/N OF KGTR BETWEEN
   0830-0900Z JUST S OF THE CURRENT WATCH. 
   
   WRN PORTION OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WAS BEGINNING TO
   WEAKEN ACROSS SERN AR AND NWRN MS EARLY THIS MORNING.
   HOWEVER...STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTRL-NERN MS EWD INTO NRN
   AL.  TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED IN A FAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME
   AND COULD BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY
   MOVE ESEWD TOWARD AREAS NEAR/N OF KGTR. 
   
   OTHERWISE...ACCAS BAND AHEAD OF THE LINE WAS BEGINNING TO SPROUT
   INTO TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MS NEWD INTO NCNTRL AL.  THESE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THOUGH THEY MAY TEND
   TO BE ELEVATED /LARGE HAIL THREAT/...THEY COULD ROOT INTO THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY AS
   THEY MOVE INTO CNTRL/NRN AL.
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED ACROSS
   CNTRL MS GIVEN THAT MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS POINTING
   MORE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
   
   33799039 34248855 33918833 33418843 33078977

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AL...NRN/CNTRL GA...WRN SC...WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031010Z - 031215Z
   
   HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL AL NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN GA
   THROUGH MID-MORNING. 
   
   A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH AT DAYBREAK...WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   SPREADING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  THE TSTMS THAT GREW UPSCALE
   INTO A LINEAR MCS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS AT 10Z. 
   
   DESPITE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR...COLD OUTFLOW HAS TENDED TO
   DOMINATE THE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING...LESSENING THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES.  BUT...PLUME OF STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
   SPREADING EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL.
   
   AS THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
   HOURS...TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL GA AND MOVE EWD INTO
   PARTS OF SC.  INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BOOST BUOYANCY
   AND TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS
   IN A FEW HOURS.  STRONG WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
   ENCOURAGE BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS. 
   
   UPSTREAM...TSTMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PARTS OF AL INTO THE
   STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE OF
   A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
   
   33118830 34098574 34978471 35348281 35878187 35858054
   34558096 33758171 32188322 32018566

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031334Z - 031500Z
   
   A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE
   FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN CNTRL NC. AS THE LINE GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY 14 TO 15Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION WITH THE RUC GRADUALLY INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
   THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH
   STORMS EXPANDING SWD WITH TIME. THE GSO 12Z SOUNDING HAS SOME
   INSTABILITY MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH LAPSE RATES FROM 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM. AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF
   THE LINE THIS MORNING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. THIS
   COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
   SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
   EWD AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED AROUND MID-DAY...THERE WILL BE AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   36217813 36007746 35597730 35117762 34277905 33588048
   33648121 34098159 34488147 35348000 35987888

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...NRN WV...WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031424Z - 031530Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR STATE LIST AT TOP
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN OH. AS THE STORMS
   EXPAND AND MOVE NEWD...A LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW
   SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN MI WITH A
   POTENT TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG
   BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
   NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA LATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE ACROSS SW OH AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN OH LATE THIS
   MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES EXTENDING NNEWD
   FROM NRN KY ACROSS ERN OH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK
   DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
   A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WIND DAMAGE AND AN AND ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   40107790 39267984 38808170 38778282 38798299 39548345
   40498348 41128204 41618002 41867894 41297817 40467812

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031555Z - 031800Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   NRN GA AND/OR FAR NE AL. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH TORNADOES BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS DRIFT EWD INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC. A
   WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY AROUND MIDDAY AS STORMS INITIATE AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
   THE TN VALLEY WITH RUC FORECASTS MOVING A STRONG VORTICITY MAX EWD
   ACROSS NRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   INCREASES...MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED...STORM INITIATION SHOULD
   OCCUR IN NRN GA AND/OR FAR NE AL. INITIALLY STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
   OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ATLANTA BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
   MAY INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH IN NCNTRL GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN
   GA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
   ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE AND MOVE EWD INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   33188073 33018174 33128367 33398514 33978568 34568569
   34818518 34808404 34488081 33318062

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OH...WRN AND CENTRAL PA...SWRN NY AND
   ERN/CENTRAL WV...NWRN VA...PANDHANDLE OF MD
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...
   
   VALID 031814Z - 032015Z
   
   ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
   POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY DMGG WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. FURTHER SW..MORE
   CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WV AND FAR SERN OH SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND SVR WINDS/HAIL. AREAS DOWNWIND OF TORNADO WW
   146...CENTRAL PA AND ERN WV/WRN MD/VA...WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   DESTABILIZING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS OVER WRN
   PA MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE MOTION
   TAKE THE LINE OUT OF WW 146 INTO CENTRAL PA AROUND 19Z. ATTM THE
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL PA IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
   MUCAPES FROM 100-300 J/KG AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. RECENT
   VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
   INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD AID IN A DECREASING TREND IN THE
   SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER
   NORTH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER SWRN NY MAY SUPPORT A
   MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...WLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   HAS LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN
   WV AND NWRN VA. CONVECTION THAT WAS INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL WV MAY
   TEND TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKER INSTABILITY AREA
   AND OUT OF WW 146. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEED FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   42027747 43157833 42947907 42387988 41998062 41478092
   40348104 39118120 38858111 38428096 38268017 38357872
   39267785 40417755

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031836Z - 032030Z
   
   STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM NRN NC INTO
   SRN VA AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID TO
   LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   ENTERING THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MARKEDLY
   INCREASE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NC
   THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
   BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM
   GREENSBORO NC TO ROANOKE VA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED AND
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SFC HEATING.
   IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED INCREASING ASCENT FROM THE WEST SHOULD
   SUPPORT STORM INITIATION. INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
   THERMAL AXIS IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME.
   
   CLEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH 50 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A 40 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY FORMING OVER NRN NC EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG THE NC-VA STATE-LINE
   WILL BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP
   AND TRACK EWD INTO SE VA AND NE NC BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AS LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   35347698 35117848 35227996 35768049 36148061 36778064
   37198032 37557918 37557731 37377641 36837607 36217602
   35727610

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL  TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031842Z - 032045Z
   
   TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL
   TX FROM THE DRT AREA EWD TO NEAR SAT AND AUS AREA. MODERATE-STG
   INSTABILITY WILL AID IN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL...
   DESPITE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
   DRT EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF KERRVILLE EWD TO BASTROP COUNTY. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP
   LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   SVR HAIL/WIND AS STORMS MOVE SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID
   LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY ELY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW
   ENOUGH THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...
   
   29969952 29660102 29230093 29000008 28939850 29609713
   30209684 30049842

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC AND CNTRL NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147...
   
   VALID 032059Z - 032230Z
   
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 147. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   SUPERCELLS AS THE STORMS TRACK EWD INTO NERN SC AND SCNTRL NC BY
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A STRONG
   VORTICITY MAX IN NRN VA WITH A BAND OF WELL-FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS ATTM. THE SUPERCELLS ARE
   ONGOING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF A 70 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET. THE LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F) WILL
   FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE
   ENHANCED WEST OF I-77 WHERE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 30
   DEGREES F. AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD INTO NERN SC AND SCNTRL
   NC...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SOME DUE TO GREATER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 50S F.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   35498158 35988112 36087935 35727868 34627859 34177968
   33848103 33928134 34198188 34998197

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/ERN VA/ERN NC/NERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...
   
   VALID 040116Z - 040245Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD INTO ERN NC.
   MEANWHILE...A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC AND THE NERN SC COAST.
   
   STORMS OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN VA CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
   COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS SELY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE
   TO ADVECT ATLANTIC AIR INLAND. THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN
   WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT LIKELY TO LINGER AS
   STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE NERN CORNER OF WW 148 AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
   NJ/DE COASTS.
   
   FURTHER S INTO SERN VA/ERN NC/NERN SC...POCKETS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY REMAIN.  WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN
   CAROLINAS ATTM...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY
   SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO LINGER
   FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NC WHERE STORMS
   SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE THE LONGEST.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
   
   33637997 35267983 36727737 38267643 39737667 39737562
   33677649

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN SC/SERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...
   
   VALID 040301Z - 040400Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE.  WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AS SCHEDULED AT 04/04Z.
   
   LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS MOST CONVECTION WEAKENING/MOVING OFFSHORE
   ATTM.  GREATEST INSTABILITY -- AND THUS LINGERING SEVERE THREAT --
   IS INDICATED ACROSS FAR NERN SC AND SERN NC...WHERE STRONGEST STORMS
   ARE INDICATED. THOUGH LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES IN THIS AREA...STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH TIME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
   
   33667930 34567810 35287761 35137630 33677649

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041642Z - 041845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
   AND SCNTRL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
   SANTA BARBARA VICINITY NWD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   IMAGERY OVER THE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60 F.
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
   LAPSE RATES OVER CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL GRADUALLY INCREASING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR BRIEF
   TORNADOES MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE AS SFC HEATING FURTHER
   DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...
   
   35631972 35602061 35702115 35872147 36342152 37242145
   38062116 38122031 37881956 37201942

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 041831Z - 042030Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC
   BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL
   FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING EWD
   FROM TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
   HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO MOST CLEAR SKIES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SEA
   BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS ERN FL AND NEW STORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE-COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AS
   TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A WEAK
   TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WOULD BE FAVORED WITH A
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27248087 27018194 27128227 27528245 27868231 28138137
   28138087 27488058

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 042309Z - 050115Z
   
   ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...
   
   LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF
   ELKO AND SOUTHEAST OF BOISE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE INCREASED
   INTO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
   1000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   REGION ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
   ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG...WITH VAD WIND DATA SHOWING 40 KT WITHIN THE
   LOWEST 1KM AGL AT ELKO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES /IN EXCESS OF
   50KT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND RECENT RADAR DATA FROM
   BOISE HAS BEEN INDICATING LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH STORM NEARING
   MOUNTAIN HOME ID. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...VERY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...
   
   39141664 39861772 43061611 43141510 42841315 42261316
   40181479 39211572