Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Very impressive. Lets see what future runs do with this feature. It is about 6 days out. If it still somewhat same in about 96hr runs. Then ill pay more attention.

[Patrick99]

Wow. You rarely see those lows get that far south in the Gulf. Maybe for once, we won't have to read "best dynamics will be well north" in our area forecast discussions.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet written before the 12Z GFS run that just came out. The 12Z GFS is less impressive with this low for Florida. Go figure

Out over the west, a mid-level disturbance will move across the
Rockies by Monday. By Tuesday, it cuts off over Texas and drops
into the Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance develops and pushes
eastward on Wednesday into Thursday, it will cut across the
peninsula of Florida with the potential of showers and
thunderstorms. The concern for strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out though great uncertainty remains with an event in the
extended forecast period. One thing to note has been the
consistency over the last few days of the GFS and ECMWF with this
system. The GFS has the cutoff low crossing around Tampa while the
ECMWF takes it between Key West and Cuba. This system bears
watching and expect the forecast to evolve over the coming days as
the potential event time approaches. Much can still change, but
the guidance is being consistent so far with the solution.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

12Z GFS animation:

[gatorcane]

On the other hand, the 12 ECMWF looks even more bullish on this low for Florida. Animation below:

[HURRICANELONNY]

So the GFS is the southern track while euro is more north near tampa which could be a more severe storm track down here. I f it materializes.

The long term period will begin with a period of dry weather Monday
through early Wednesday as high pressure ridges into the region from
the north with fair weather. Attention then shifts to a developing
cutoff low that will move southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, which
the long range guidance has been showing consistently the past
several model runs. While there still remains significant
uncertainty with resolving a cutoff low in the extended, there are
trends in the latest 12z guidance that suggest that this low will
track well southeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Florida
Straits/northern Cuba region.

If this scenario does indeed occur, much of the region will be on
the cool side of the low, with more in the way of periods of light
to occasionally moderate rain possible beginning late Wednesday and
continuing into Thursday. However, a farther northward track could
result in the region being in the warm sector, with a greater chance
for thunderstorms. The potential for strong storms is still there,
but remains highly in question as the low will be gradually decaying
the further southeast it progresses, along with abundant cloud cover
and overall stable conditions with showalter values well above 0 c
indicating more of a soaking rain event to help mitigate the
drought. Will continue to monitor the forecast closely over the
coming days.

[psyclone]

WPC QPF numbers are unimpressive at this point showing generally .5-1" for the peninsula.

[Ntxw]

-PNA is now forecasted in the medium to long range, coupled with +NAO and +AO, after the coming period of disturbed weather Florida and parts of the southeast will go under ridging to end the month. Likely means dry and very warm weather on the horizon.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS, back to showing something rather impressive and this is day 5 too:

[NDG]

With the PNA going back negative with persistent +NAO is safe to say that spring is here, or should I say winter never came to central and southern FL

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to the NWS. The euro seems to be more consistent with this low then the gfs. The gfs takes ir south of S. Fl. While the euro has some impact but also moves it south albeit stronger.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200

[psyclone]

7 day HPC QPF has trended down from already tepid numbers...now a big fat goose egg for the Tampa bay area and the .5" contour confined to southeast florida. Looks like Spring weather (warm and dry) is really taking hold.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Good chance I won't get a drop of rain from the low prog for Wend- Thurs. Models are driving this low south of florida. Oh well. Thats why you never count on models runs 7 days out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Fort Lauderdale hit 90, Miami Kendall hit 91 today. Summer In February in South Florida.
70s and 80s across Central FL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep tampa. My car said 91 when I get in yesterday. Amazing heat for feb. Today is back to normal with highs around 80. As for the low in the gulf. Another story. The 0z models now have the feature going through S FL. No consistency!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/833690927273218048

[gatorcane]

Yep the GFS and ECMWF are showing quite a low for this time of year moving across the peninsula. Should get interesting indeed. Animations below:

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet, see bold:

Let`s point out a few things about this system and its forecast
trends as of late:
* Model guidance has shown some inconsistency over the last few
days
* The 00z GFS, which this time yesterday has more of mid-level
trough than a well-defined cut off low, is now trying to
produce a pretty ferocious system that takes a more northerly
path than previous runs
* The 00z ECMWF continues to show a cut off low, bringing
consistency for several days on that front, but has also started
to favor a more northerly path over the southern tip of the
peninsula of Florida

Based off this, the uncertainty remains fairly high with the
evolution of this system and how it will affect our region over
the coming week. The potential outcomes range from a strong to
severe weather threat from a squall line to a weakening system
that will struggle to produce thunderstorms. At this point, will
continue with the forecast trend we have carried over the last
several days which is to include thunderstorm mentions in the
forecast with healthy rain chances. The swings in solutions
between model runs will mean that it is *crucial* to continue
monitoring the forecast evolution of this system as it could pose
a potential threat to South Florida later this week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes some of the models back on board with a threat for severe storms and potent low.

[gatorcane]

Latest ECMWF tracks the low right over Southern Florida, a little south of the 00Z ECMWF. 5-day animation from the 12Z run below:

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yup. Looks like the models did an about face. Could use the rain. Grass getting dry. Severe I doubt. I guess it depends if S Fl is in the warm sector. Definitely have to keep an eye out for strong storms on wends.