Texas Spring 2022

[bubba hotep]

12z hi-res models are in pretty good agreement that there will be decent storm coverage this afternoon. In fact, I would not be surprised to see an upgrade from Austin up to DFW.

[cstrunk]

Hi-Res models continue to show storms/supercells around/south of DFW heading into the Tyler/Longview/Shreveport area this evening. Should at least have a large hail/wind threat along with a few tornadoes.

[Edwards Limestone]

(non-severe) convection already showing up on radar east of Laredo in Webb County

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR sometimes shows supercells blowing up in Central & Southern Oklahoma, & sometimes doesn't, given the high uncertainty.

However, my gut is telling me (Not literally, but the feeling of it) that today is looking really nasty.

[rwfromkansas]

Temperature dropped a bit, needs to climb a lot still probably. No problems with moisture, very high dewpoint.

[HockeyTx82]

Temperature dropped a bit, needs to climb a lot still probably. No problems with moisture, very high dewpoint.

I just walked across the UNT campus and it definitely feels cooler outside than it did yesterday around this time

[gpsnowman]

Temperature dropped a bit, needs to climb a lot still probably. No problems with moisture, very high dewpoint.

The sun peeked out earlier for a few minutes and it quickly warmed. Now it is cloudy and cooler again. Still a ways to go for the temp to climb.

[ElectricStorm]

My concern for today in OK/TX/KS is a big supercell tracking over a populated metro area. Not only will it have tornado potential (and strong tornado potential), but the hail could be massive. Even though there probably won't be a large number of storms, the intensity of the ones that do form will be pretty high. It's too bad the SPC doesn't have a 5 hatched tornado option, as I think that would be perfect for OK/TX/KS today.

[Edwards Limestone]

Lots of cloud cover across Texas this AM.

[rwfromkansas]

Some light showers forming. Hmm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Temperature dropped a bit, needs to climb a lot still probably. No problems with moisture, very high dewpoint.

The sun peeked out earlier for a few minutes and it quickly warmed. Now it is cloudy and cooler again. Still a ways to go for the temp to climb.

It’s cooler today, but doesn’t need to warm as much as it did yesterday. With expected mid level cooling as the disturbance approaches, the cap should go when we’re in the low 80s. Conditions look to be maximized around 5-6pm, so there’s plenty of time to get the warming needed even if the clouds don’t clear out

[UTSARoadrunner4]

This morning’s overcast has pretty much disappeared over Far North San Antonio. Lots of sunshine & humid air. Just isn’t warm enough yet to help break that cap.

[HockeyTx82]

Just had some thunder at UNT

[Haris]

Storms now developing already 18z in the big country. Only model that had it this early was FV3... Take that FWIW

[txtwister78]

This morning’s overcast has pretty much disappeared over Far North San Antonio. Lots of sunshine & humid air. Just isn’t warm enough yet to help break that cap.

Temps have already climbed to 86 the airport, 88 at Port SA/Kelly Field and a ridiculous 94 at Stinson field. Cap won't be an issue today across SC TX with temps continuing to climb with room to go. Lack of forcing/trigger is the main issue down here, but we could see just enough to generate one or two severe storms with the potential for giant hail should they fire later today along the advancing dryline (4-6 PM timeframe).

[funster]

This happened but their link doesn't work:

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1513940580836945921




Update: It does now: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0454.html

[bubba hotep]

Storms now developing already 18z in the big country. Only model that had it this early was FV3... Take that FWIW

Based on anticipated storm motion, if those become surface based and survive then they would probably track towards DFW. Plenty of lead time to mature into full grown super cells.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

This morning’s overcast has pretty much disappeared over Far North San Antonio. Lots of sunshine & humid air. Just isn’t warm enough yet to help break that cap.

Temps have already climbed to 86 the airport, 88 at Port SA/Kelly Field and a ridiculous 94 at Stinson field. Cap won't be an issue today across SC TX with temps continuing to climb with room to go. Lack of forcing/trigger is the main issue down here, but we could see just enough to generate one or two severe storms with the potential for giant hail should they fire later today along the advancing dryline (4-6 PM timeframe).

That was quick! When I posted the temperature was sitting at 78, now it’s 84.

[bubba hotep]

That cell looks healthy on both sat and radar. Looks like it might be legit.

[bubba hotep]