Texas Summer 2022

[Clearcloudz]

Yeah, no doubt lol that needs to expand southwest by quite a bit

Yes, please. I keep missing most of the rain.

Which is crazy. You're maybe 10 miles from me and I got dumped on. It was one cell that just sat on top of me.

00Z EURO rainfall totals, the trend is continuing to push towards Louisiana.

[bubba hotep]

Yes, please. I keep missing most of the rain.

Which is crazy. You're maybe 10 miles from me and I got dumped on. It was one cell that just sat on top of me.

00Z EURO rainfall totals, the trend is continuing to push towards Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/dMk3BK6.png

Not too worried about that. The Euro precipitation output has been bad the past couple of years. Of course, it will be right this time lol

[Clearcloudz]

Which is crazy. You're maybe 10 miles from me and I got dumped on. It was one cell that just sat on top of me.

00Z EURO rainfall totals, the trend is continuing to push towards Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/dMk3BK6.png

Not too worried about that. The Euro precipitation output has been bad the past couple of years. Of course, it will be right this time lol

Both the 06Z ICON and 06Z NAM shifted the majority of the rain out of Texas. Not a good trend for Texas but let's wait and see what happens.

[weatherdude1108]

I got 2.8” here and you can barely even tell it rained. There’s not any standing water anywhere.

I didn't have any standing water either in the usual standing water spots. The 1.5" soaked right in.

[rwfromkansas]

Uh oh. Lucy getting the football? The Euro still was decent. Not the NAM or ICON.

[bubba hotep]

00Z EURO rainfall totals, the trend is continuing to push towards Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/dMk3BK6.png

Not too worried about that. The Euro precipitation output has been bad the past couple of years. Of course, it will be right this time lol

Both the 06Z ICON and 06Z NAM shifted the majority of the rain out of Texas. Not a good trend for Texas but let's wait and see what happens.
https://i.imgur.com/y8poJ9P.png
https://i.imgur.com/NSdCX5i.png

On the flip side, the 12z HRRR and 3k NAM are south of those models.

[lukem]

Not too worried about that. The Euro precipitation output has been bad the past couple of years. Of course, it will be right this time lol

Both the 06Z ICON and 06Z NAM shifted the majority of the rain out of Texas. Not a good trend for Texas but let's wait and see what happens.
https://i.imgur.com/y8poJ9P.png
https://i.imgur.com/NSdCX5i.png

On the flip side, the 12z HRRR and 3k NAM are south of those models.

12z HRRR looks incredible for North Texas. Aren’t we getting in the range where you want to pay less attention to the long range models?

[Cpv17]

The overnight trends look crappy for the southern half of the state.

[SoupBone]

Just had a random cell dump on top of me, around .25"

[rwfromkansas]

I would definitely pay more attention to the high-res models for tomorrow and Monday at least.

So, it's a good sign if the HRRR and 3K Nam are better.

[Brent]

Good luck y'all. Not looking so great up here but we did get a couple inches a couple weeks ago so it's not quite as dire up here. At least it'll keep temps down for a couple days if nothing else

I would agree on watching the hi res models though at this point

[South Texas Storms]

Welp, the trends sure aren't looking good for widespread heavy rainfall next week. As frustrating as this is, I think none of us should be surprised. I'm hoping most of us can get an inch or two, but the widespread 3+ inch totals are looking less likely with the system now forecast to track eastward into Louisiana instead of stalling across Texas for a few days.

[Brent]

Welp, the trends sure aren't looking good for widespread heavy rainfall next week. As frustrating as this is, I think none of us should be surprised. I'm hoping most of us can get an inch or two, but the widespread 3+ inch totals are looking less likely with the system now forecast to track eastward into Louisiana instead of stalling across Texas for a few days.

Yeah that's another problem I see... The system is much more progressive. Literally my shot at rain up here is tonight and tomorrow and then it's gone. Not great. At one point it was gonna linger into Monday even Tuesday. It wouldn't surprise me if it barely rains at this point given the trends. Never wanna see progressive that means drier

[Haris]

It also looks like the track has shifted N between OKC and DFW.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

I think it's becoming more evident the 20+ inch totals from the Euro was fantasy-ish. 3-5" still looks pretty good for the Red River valley and is more reality. There will be some who really cash in just depends where the boundaries set up and training. But hey a month ago this would have been a miracle.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah, while I am sad to lose the more widespread 6+ all over central TX, it is still helpful to hopefully dent some drought and reset the pattern.

[weatherdude1108]

This is quite the write-up by EWX. Drought to deluge.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

The long term forecast will likely result in the most active weather
pattern over South-Central Texas in quite some time. Aloft, the
upper-level pattern will be far more conducive to disturbances
fueling showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of the
upcoming week. At the surface, moisture will continue to surge
northward out ahead of an approaching surface frontal boundary over
north Texas. This "cold" front will slowly sag southward on Monday,
reaching the Texas Hill Country and our northern tier of counties by
midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to erupt
along this boundary as it slowly slides southward. In contrast to
recent rain events over the past week, the synoptic setup aloft is
certainly more supportive of widespread showers and storms, with
locally heavy rainfall becoming the greatest concern towards midweek.

As of this writing, area soil-moisture is almost non-existent,
despite some meaningful wetting rains Thursday-Friday over the Austin
metro and into portions of the Hill Country (Llano, Burnet, and
Gillespie Counties). This lack of soil moisture, in combination with
our ongoing Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought conditions, any
rain that falls will certainly be beneficial. Something to note
however, with soils being as dry as they are, they may be more prone
to run-off moreso than usual, at least early in the week, before
soils can absorb more moisture. With the nature of our terrain over
the Hill Country and the inability of our clay-like soils to absorb
moisture quickly, flash flooding could be a bit more of a concern
than we would usually think. Add in the fact that some school
districts start this week, and additional traffic on area roads
should be taken into account.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the main show, and based off of
deterministic and ensemble members of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian
model, the concerns are mounting for possible flooding. Pretty much
every ingredient is in place for Flash Flooding from an environmental
perspective given forecast model soundings: Long skinny CAPE profiles
with a very moist atmospheric profile throughout, well above average
PWATs some 1-3 SDs above the normal for late August, a deep warm-
cloud layer >10k ft, very slow LCL-EL (Cloud Layer) winds of <10 kts
for many locations, and relatively slow Corfidi upshear/downshear
vectors of 15-25 kts. This kind of setup can result in very heavy
rainfall rates, sometimes tropical in nature, and with a favorable
synoptic setup, a surface boundary to focus convection upon, and slow
storm motions, flash flooding is certainly a concern. As of this
afternoon, WPC has much of the region in the days 3, 4, and 5 slight
risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The possibility for an upgrade to
moderate for portions of the area on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday is
not out of the question. By the time all is said and done, we could
be looking at widespread totals of 3-5" with isolated pockets
greater than 6-8".

Despite all this, confidence in the higher end guidance is lower
than usual, and there is still considerable uncertainty in where the
heaviest rainfall will set up. The expectation for appreciable
rainfall over most of the area is quite high, with many seeing at
least 1-2", but whether a few locations pick up 6+ inches of rainfall
is highly dependent on the location of the frontal boundary and how
deep the trough digs into eastern Texas. Beyond Wednesday, expect our
unsettled pattern to continue. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms can be expected along with afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Iceresistance]

There's a 10" marker SE of Texarkana, TX

Also, I may get an inch at best, but since most of Y'all are under Exceptional Drought in Northern Texas, they deserve the more rainfall than me.

[Ntxw]

There's a 10" marker SE of Texarkana, TX

Also, I may get an inch at best, but since most of Y'all are under Exceptional Drought in Northern Texas, they deserve the more rainfall than me.

Hope you guys get some too. South of I-40 in Oklahoma is under extreme drought and probably only a month or so away from exceptional drought classification if enough rain doesn't fall.