Texas Fall 2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh November... Our late year severe weather season.

[weatherdude1108]

Just in time for trick or treating.

Bob Rose:

Forecasters continuing to monitor forecasted weather developments for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A large trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Rockies tonight and Wednesday will push a strong Canadian cold front into the Texas Panhandle. The front is forecast to reach Northwest Texas Wednesday morning and the northern Hill Country around early to mid-afternoon. The front is predicted to reach the Austin area around 6-7 pm and the La Grange area about midnight. The front will continue moving south and push off the coast before sunrise Thursday morning.

A line of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along and just behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon as it pushes south out of North Texas. The highest chance for thunderstorm development is expected to occur over areas that are along and to the east of Interstate 35. The line of rain and storms is forecast to move across the Austin/Central Texas area late Wednesday afternoon/early evening and continue moving southeast towards the coast Wednesday night. Wednesday's atmosphere will be structured in such a way that developing thunderstorms will have the potential to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Hill Country and the Austin area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm. Areas east and southeast of Austin, including Bastrop, Lee, Fayette and Colorado Counties have been placed under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A slight risk means scattered severe storms will be possible while an enhance risk means numerous severe storms will be possible.

The primary severe weather threat is forecast to damaging straight line winds. However, there will also be a chance for large hail and a couple of isolated tornadoes. The severe weather threat will end once the line pushes south of the area.

Rain amounts through Wednesday night are expected to be a little heavier than previously forecast. Updated predictions now call for totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across much of the northern Hill Country, most of Central Texas along with the middle Texas coast.

Sunny, dry and cooler weather looks to follow Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 60s Thursday, warming to around 70-72 degrees Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will generally be in the mid and upper 40s.

Wednesday's line of rain and thunderstorms may indeed interfere with Halloween Trick or Treat activities for folks across the Hill Country and in the Austin area. For those planning to be outside, remember to be weather aware not only for the rain, but also for the threat of severe storms and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. If you are close enough to hear thunder you are at risk from being struck by lightning.

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

As we await the active Halloween weather, it is time to look beyond.

Yes! November is just about here as we march towards winter. The Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles show subtle hints of a colder regime setting foot soon to begin the new month! We are awaiting an early freeze and maybe mischief, who knows but be on the lookout for the OP models to show some impressive cold air (for the season). Signs of blocking showing up, or pseudo-blocking at least.

EPS





GEFS



It is my favorite time of year where you use the ensembles to help seek out cold blasts!

[Ntxw]

Active subtropical jet. More inclined to believe the higher Euro totals.

[wxman22]

The HRRR shows what looks to be decreet supercells tomorrow afternoon in southeast Texas

[DonWrk]

Talk about some wicked lightning that rolled through about 30 minutes ago!

[CaptinCrunch]

Happy Halloween

Temperatures today will be dependent on whether you are ahead or
behind the cold front. Areas behind the cold front will remain in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Those ahead of the front will climb into
the upper 70s. By tonight, lows will drop to the mid to upper 40s
across North Texas, and low 50s across Central Texas.

The high today Oct. 31 at DFW airport was 69 @ 12:53am, that start's the day off at 4 degrees below the normal high of 73.

[Tireman4]

Happy Halloween

Temperatures today will be dependent on whether you are ahead or
behind the cold front. Areas behind the cold front will remain in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Those ahead of the front will climb into
the upper 70s. By tonight, lows will drop to the mid to upper 40s
across North Texas, and low 50s across Central Texas.

The high today Oct. 31 at DFW airport was 69 @ 12:53am, that start's the day off at 4 degrees below the normal high of 73.

Captin, did you release your annual Halloween Forecast already or did I miss it?

[CaptinCrunch]

I haven't yet, I hope to have it ready this weekend. I was looking at analogs last night and I'm thinking of a blend or 09-10, and 76-77 as these two blend a solar minimul with a active southern jet. They both follow back/back La Ninas, they both had an active wet Sept and Oct, and they both continued to be average or above precip wise thru March the following year, both were colder than average...

AND....they both had muti snow/ice events!

even if we only get 1/4 the amount of rain we saw in Sept and Oct, in each of the next 3 months we would be average or above, so all we would need is the cold, and as I stated, both those Winters were colder than average.

[Ralph's Weather]

I haven't yet, I hope to have it ready this weekend. I was looking at analogs last night and I'm thinking of a blend or 09-10, and 76-77 as these two blend a solar minimul with a active southern jet. They both follow back/back La Ninas, they both had an active wet Sept and Oct, and they both continued to be average or above precip wise thru March the following year, both were colder than average...

AND....they both had muti snow/ice events!

even if we only get 1/4 the amount of rain we saw in Sept and Oct, in each of the next 3 months we would be average or above, so all we would need is the cold, and as I stated, both those Winters were colder than average.

I agree with you, some of the winter forecasts I am seeing are banking on a weak STJ and I'm not seeing it. I'm not an ENSO guy so maybe this will morph into more of a Modoki El Nino and shut off the STJ, but for now the E Pac is plenty warm to continue to pump in moisture. The warm Gulf could fuel some strong late fall/early winter Gulf lows and strong storms like is happening today. I think Texas stays cool and wet through Dec at least and likely all winter.

[bubba hotep]

I haven't yet, I hope to have it ready this weekend. I was looking at analogs last night and I'm thinking of a blend or 09-10, and 76-77 as these two blend a solar minimul with a active southern jet. They both follow back/back La Ninas, they both had an active wet Sept and Oct, and they both continued to be average or above precip wise thru March the following year, both were colder than average...

AND....they both had muti snow/ice events!

even if we only get 1/4 the amount of rain we saw in Sept and Oct, in each of the next 3 months we would be average or above, so all we would need is the cold, and as I stated, both those Winters were colder than average.

I agree with you, some of the winter forecasts I am seeing are banking on a weak STJ and I'm not seeing it. I'm not an ENSO guy so maybe this will morph into more of a Modoki El Nino and shut off the STJ, but for now the E Pac is plenty warm to continue to pump in moisture. The warm Gulf could fuel some strong late fall/early winter Gulf lows and strong storms like is happening today. I think Texas stays cool and wet through Dec at least and likely all winter.

I've done some tinkering and what I'm seeing is below normal temps and above normal precipitation for Nov. Then for DJF overall below normal temps and normal precipitation. December looks to have the best chances of being a bust month with warmer/drier risk. I need to go back through my analogs and see what influence the polar strat had on those years.

When you go back through individual nino yrs there are some ugly dry and warm winters. I think we can safely pull those years out now. Then look at recent history for Texas and one could probably argue that we should fade our analog results warmer and wetter. I see a much below normal DJF in the analog review so maybe we still end up below even with a fade warmer.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It can stop raining now. For some reason I thought all of this stuff was suppose to be further south? It’s been pouring all day.

[CaptinCrunch]

The bulk of the rain and colder air was definitely lagging behind the initial front by several hours. We had a few good down pours with thunder here in FTW about an hour ago.

Most of NTX is now in the mid to upper 50's with continued rain, some heavy at times with thunder.

[Brent]

how surprising, another overperforming rain event in N TX, definitely the trend of the fall

[Cpv17]

Is it just me or did the 12z Euro just drop the storm for the early part of next week?

[bubba hotep]

DFW has now moved past 50" of rain for the year before Nov 1st.

[JDawg512]

The radar is starting to light up down in this region. Will be closely monitoring the timing as the day goes on.

[Cpv17]

Nasty looking cell on the southwest side of Houston right now over the Sugar Land/Missouri City area. Starting to show some signs of rotation.

[bubba hotep]

Things are getting wild down in Houston!

[gboudx]

DFW radar does not look good for trick or treaters.