Texas Summer 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1161 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:There's a 10" marker SE of Texarkana, TX

Also, I may get an inch at best, but since most of Y'all are under Exceptional Drought in Northern Texas, they deserve the more rainfall than me. :)


Hope you guys get some too. South of I-40 in Oklahoma is under extreme drought and probably only a month or so away from exceptional drought classification if enough rain doesn't fall.


Let Texas get it first to set up a favorable pattern for September Storms, then I'll get the rest of it for Oklahoma! :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1162 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:58 pm

Moderate Risk of Flooding for Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas tomorrow.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oh-boy.gif
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1163 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Moderate Risk of Flooding for Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas tomorrow.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oh-boy.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Oh-boy.gif


Please bring that moderate risk down to southeast Texas!!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1164 Postby cstrunk » Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:46 am

Surprise, surprise, but the latest WPC QPF 7-day forecast is much lower. Now only parts of NE TX are included in the 5"+ contour. The widespread 7"+ contour is gone.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1165 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Aug 21, 2022 8:24 am

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1166 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Aug 21, 2022 9:18 am

I’m maybe barely on the western edge of 3 inches on new WPC map. That’s a kick in the backside. Oddly, now FWD is much more aggressive with heavier totals.

I know in cases like this to trust the WPC.

2-3 inches is the best rain in ages, and I would be happy.

But, as small as the area of rain is on radar and considering it’s pretty east already, I have to doubt that.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1167 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:05 am

rwfromkansas wrote:I’m maybe barely on the western edge of 3 inches on new WPC map. That’s a kick in the backside. Oddly, now FWD is much more aggressive with heavier totals.

I know in cases like this to trust the WPC.

2-3 inches is the best rain in ages, and I would be happy.

But, as small as the area of rain is on radar and considering it’s pretty east already, I have to doubt that.


Too share some of the sentiment. I'm sure we've all thought it, will the drought and 2022 do what it has done all year and give us crumbs :lol:.

It'll rain but mega-drought busting is premature.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1168 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:00 am

The switch flip in the tropics is about to commence. Time to start paying attention.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1169 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:57 am

I see 80 degree highs and 60 degree lows in the forecast… can’t wait to start blasting Christmas music soon lol :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1170 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:24 pm

Where's this heavy rain we were supposed to wake up to today in Dallas?

Nearly 1PM and the closest returns I see on radar are still 200 miles out to the west.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1171 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:24 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:I see 80 degree highs and 60 degree lows in the forecast… can’t wait to start blasting Christmas music soon lol :ggreen:


I really can't wait either! Lol
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1172 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:39 pm

ColdFusion wrote:Where's this heavy rain we were supposed to wake up to today in Dallas?

Nearly 1PM and the closest returns I see on radar are still 200 miles out to the west.


It also appears that most of the rain isn’t really amounting to much. Most of it is on the light side.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1173 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:Where's this heavy rain we were supposed to wake up to today in Dallas?

Nearly 1PM and the closest returns I see on radar are still 200 miles out to the west.


It also appears that most of the rain isn’t really amounting to much. Most of it is on the light side.

It's overperforming over me!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1174 Postby wxman22 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:46 pm

ColdFusion wrote:Where's this heavy rain we were supposed to wake up to today in Dallas?

Nearly 1PM and the closest returns I see on radar are still 200 miles out to the west.

Based on the mesoscale models the rain wont pick up until this evening going into the overnight over the metroplex.Models are showing some pretty heavy rain tonight in North Texas. Even the NWS graphic from early this morning shows this under "when is the risk?". Notice Sunday night on the graph.

Image
Last edited by wxman22 on Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:55 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1175 Postby cstrunk » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:49 pm

Let's just say I wasn't surprised to wake up and see the heaviest rain occurring in Oklahoma and Arkansas and not Texas. We'll see what this evening can muster up.

NWS SHV still thinks 4"-6"+ is likely across the I-20 corridor in East Texas over the next 2 days.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1176 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:28 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1177 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:01 pm

Not a drop here so far. The good news it's cooler than yesterday

Hope y'all have better luck
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1178 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:29 pm

cstrunk wrote:Let's just say I wasn't surprised to wake up and see the heaviest rain occurring in Oklahoma and Arkansas and not Texas. We'll see what this evening can muster up.

NWS SHV still thinks 4"-6"+ is likely across the I-20 corridor in East Texas over the next 2 days.

Rates will be pretty spectacular around here when it gets going.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1179 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:33 pm

Almost had to turn on my windshield wipers just now.

90% chance of heavy rain today? Not even close.

Maybe tonight's 90% chance will play out better.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1180 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:39 pm

18z 3k NAM with over a foot of rain in eastern portions of DFW

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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