Texas Spring 2023

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR decides to randomly dump 2-5 inches over DFW on Saturday, lol.

[rwfromkansas]

Watch canceled for DFW north.

[Brent]

Yesterday was below 60 most of the day... Tomorrow near a very humid 90

I'd like to cancel my free trial of summer

[ElectricStorm]

SPC upgraded parts of TX/S OK to enhanced for hail. Shouldn't be a big tornado day at all but this should be an interesting day regardless.

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced risk expanded east and now includes DFW. They also added a 30 hatched wind area along with the 30 hatched hail area. Slight risk expanded north a tad and now includes Norman.

[bubba hotep]

Enhanced risk expanded east and now includes DFW. They also added a 30 hatched wind area along with the 30 hatched hail area. Slight risk expanded north a tad and now includes Norman.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the HRRR verifies I can definitely see why dfw was included in the enh for winds. With 5000 cape and 1700 DCAPE and squall line approaching, the first thing I thought of downbursts. That cape is supportive of hail too, obviously, but with upscale growth I imagine that threat will wane with eastern propagation

[bubba hotep]

If the HRRR verifies I can definitely see why dfw was included in the enh for winds. With 5000 cape and 1700 DCAPE and squall line approaching, the first thing I thought of downbursts. That cape is supportive of hail too, obviously, but with upscale growth I imagine that threat will wane with eastern propagation

We haven't seen much of that this spring. This looks like a classic setup with storms firing out west on the dryline and then growing upscale into a MCS that blasts through DFW. However, the 12z 3k NAM has a more broken line look and manages to keep storms basically in the same corridors as the last few events, with most rain missing DFW to the north and south.

[rwfromkansas]

NWS graphic still has best chances west. Why change things? Going with continuity. If I get rain I will be pleasantly surprised.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the HRRR verifies I can definitely see why dfw was included in the enh for winds. With 5000 cape and 1700 DCAPE and squall line approaching, the first thing I thought of downbursts. That cape is supportive of hail too, obviously, but with upscale growth I imagine that threat will wane with eastern propagation

We haven't seen much of that this spring. This looks like a classic setup with storms firing out west on the dryline and then growing upscale into a MCS that blasts through DFW. However, the 12z 3k NAM has a more broken line look and manages to keep storms basically in the same corridors as the last few events, with most rain missing DFW to the north and south.

Honestly, given how poor the nam handled precip depiction yesterday, the fact that it shows a squall line at all is positive for credibility at this point imo. Like yesterday, I’m sure boundaries will play a role in where storms set up, making the setup less predictable, but I think our chances are better than yesterday

[Gotwood]

If the HRRR verifies I can definitely see why dfw was included in the enh for winds. With 5000 cape and 1700 DCAPE and squall line approaching, the first thing I thought of downbursts. That cape is supportive of hail too, obviously, but with upscale growth I imagine that threat will wane with eastern propagation

We haven't seen much of that this spring. This looks like a classic setup with storms firing out west on the dryline and then growing upscale into a MCS that blasts through DFW. However, the 12z 3k NAM has a more broken line look and manages to keep storms basically in the same corridors as the last few events, with most rain missing DFW to the north and south.

Don’t speak that evil lol. We need rain bad.

[txtwister78]

A few isolated non severe storms have popped up over San Antonio this afternoon. Models didn't have much of anything for today but hey will definitely take the rain for the W.

[rwfromkansas]

Watch issued…west of DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Models seem to be trending towards disorganized clusters vs. a MCS. Ugh, win or lose on rainfall vs. a widespread sweep.

[Ntxw]

Ah yes the enhanced curse. Good news is the 7 day WPC qpf looks nice!

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Ah yes the enhanced curse. Good news is the 7 day WPC qpf looks nice!

Convective evolution looks more promising for widespread rain making it eastward into DFW than the last several events. Always glad to get an ENH bust but still get widespread rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Gap between the two complexes will ensure I stay dry unless they change direction.

Edit: looks better on FWD radar. Guess I was on Dyess.

[bubba hotep]

Interesting feature developing on radar extending eastward from the main batch of storms over Ft. Worth. Lightning with this as far away as Roanoke.

[rwfromkansas]

Lots of lightning in Tarrant well ahead of the actual storms.

What is this called?