Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Orlando is breaking a record for the driest start to a year, ever!
Is shame that the state has not figure out a way to reserve water from a wet year like last year for dry years like this year, we probably have one of the highest water rates in the SE US.

If we didn't mindlessly flush "excess water" out to sea every time it rains a lot, we might be in better shape when the inevitable dry months hit. I feel that a lot of the time, we (well, the S FL Water Mgmt District, anyway) do this to ourselves.

[psyclone]

I remember when I first moved to florida being amazed by all the potable water wasted on St Augustine grass...and how it always reminded me of crabgrass...the very thing people spent a fortune on trying to kill up north. The Tampa Bay desal plant had all kinds of issues early on including opposition from those convinced the saline discharge would ruin the bay (completely unfounded) and then operational issues once it was constructed. but it seems like those issues have been worked out and it is really helping as is the reservoir. Our population is up a good bit since 01 but we're still doing ok with this dry spell. I did look back into the US drought monitor archives and the 01 drought was a very high end event with the entire peninsula covered by extreme or exceptional drought for a long period...so it was worse than current conditions by a good bit as it was a much longer event.

[MetroMike]

I remember when I first moved to florida being amazed by all the potable water wasted on St Augustine grass...and how it always reminded me of crabgrass...the very thing people spent a fortune on trying to kill up north. The Tampa Bay desal plant had all kinds of issues early on including opposition from those convinced the saline discharge would ruin the bay (completely unfounded) and then operational issues once it was constructed. but it seems like those issues have been worked out and it is really helping as is the reservoir. Our population is up a good bit since 01 but we're still doing ok with this dry spell. I did look back into the US drought monitor archives and the 01 drought was a very high end event with the entire peninsula covered by extreme or exceptional drought for a long period...so it was worse than current conditions by a good bit as it was a much longer event.

Very interesting to look at those archives. It made me remember that it HAS been worse in recent history. It wasn't until August of 2001 that the state was out of the drought officially. I remember the summer storm season as being a big disappointment that year.

[NDG]

We need to pray to the rain gods tomorrow which looks to be the best chance of rain in my area through the next 7-10 days or so as both GFS and Euro show a stacked ridge finding a home over the SE US next week
The only good news is that the Bermuda ridge will be building in so that means E & SE winds coming off the Atlantic, humidity level should go up and slightly "cooler" temps for the east coast of central FL thanks to a sea breeze.

[psyclone]

You are correct...it seems like a broken line of showers/storms are on tap tomorrow with better chances for areas near and north of I-4. Hopefully we'll see some lucky folks clear .5". after that things are not looking good as both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook show the standard combo we're accustomed to...above normal temps and below normal precip for the peninsula.

[NDG]

:uarrow: You are correct...it seems like a broken line of showers/storms are on tap tomorrow with better chances for areas near and north of I-4. Hopefully we'll see some lucky folks clear .5". after that things are not looking good as both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook show the standard combo we're accustomed to...above normal temps and below normal precip for the peninsula.

Next week the heat will really turn on for you guys on the west coast of FL due to the easterly offshore flow.

[psyclone]

good rainfall targeting the nature coast this morning....kind of trolling areas just to the south. radar trends don't look good for the Tampa bay area at this point.

[psyclone]

storm approaching the Pasco county coast is showing rotation/high wind potential. if it holds together it looks warning worthy.

[gatorcane]

All of the good rains are just north of Tampa and Orlando, so close yet too far...the band extends SW into the Gulf so maybe in a few hours Clearwater will see some of these beneficial rains.

[psyclone]

we've got some improving storms out in the gulf that are on a beeline for the bay area if they hold together. I'm also noticing a very intense smoke plume near I-75 close to the Sarasota/Desoto county line. No doubt that is a very intense fire being fanned by those strong winds.

[NDG]

Looks like the rain dance is working, line of thunderstorms is making it to my area!!!!

[NDG]

Much needed rain, got a little over an inch of rain. Norther Lake County area also got some nice amounts.

[psyclone]

The KBDI map was rewritten in some areas after the weekend rain with Hernando county the undisputed winner. it's nice to see the drought getting chipped away at around the edges and now that everyone is within a month of (a normal) rainy season start it really is a sprint for the finish line. It looks like a really hot week is on tap with mostly dry conditions but that's exactly what we need to warm those shelf waters for the rainy season daily storms.

[gatorcane]

looks like we are still on track for a big increase in moisture and rain chances this weekend into early next week as a surface trough moves NW out of the Caribbean and into the Bahamas. This should kick off the rainy season for South Florida but looks like all of Florida may get into this action

[psyclone]

We finally have normal to above normal precip in the extended outlooks too...at a time of the year when normal is rapidly getting wetter. this is very encouraging.

[AdamFirst]

Usually when the rainy season kicks in, it kicks in with a vengeance...I assume most of the state will make up their deficits soon enough

[Patrick99]

looks like we are still on track for a big increase in moisture and rain chances this weekend into early next week as a surface trough moves NW out of the Caribbean and into the Bahamas. This should kick off the rainy season for South Florida but looks like all of Florida may get into this action

I hope so. I really tend to hate this time of year in South Florida (early-to-late-middle May). It's always hot and "dry" in the sense that few thunderstorms can seem to get going because there's always a strong cap up there, but the low-level humidity creeps up at the same time. I can deal with the hot as long as you give me cooling storms at some point during the day.

As for the rainy season, the dewpoint has been in the 70s consistently for a few days now I think.....isn't that one of the main criteria for the South Florida rainy season? Maybe an argument could be made that it already has started.

[psyclone]

96 today at Tampa was good enough for a record and is the 12th day of 90+ temps YTD.. we do have a well defined seabreeze boundary evident on radar and some showers/thundershowers popping once again, especially south of the bay where moisture is a tad higher.

[psyclone]

98 @ KTPA smashes the record high and is just 1 degree from matching the all time record of 99. seabreeze has finally punched in providing some relief.

[gatorcane]

I think it is fair to say the rainy season in South Florida has begun. Think they might use May 15th or 16th as the day it started. Rainy season in South Florida features dew points above 70F with warm overnight lows at least in the mid 70sF and highs well into the 80sF close to 90F with scattered showers and thunderstorms just about each and every day.