STORM2K

gatorcane wrote:I think it is fair to say the rainy season in South Florida has begun. Think they might use May 15th or 16th as the day it started. Rainy season in South Florida features dew points above 70F with warm overnight lows at least in the mid 70sF and highs well into the 80sF close to 90F with scattered showers and thunderstorms just about each and every day.

Yep, I agree! There has been plenty of shower and isolated storm activity which should be enough to finally call the start of the 2017 rainy season official.

Had some good sea breeze thunderstorms yesterday evening, I got some video of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOYFmNT7qSQ

Tampa International already up to 97 today! After 98 yesterday and 96 the day before.

Sea Breeze storms forecasted again Friday and Saturday! Nice to see the rain after such a long dry spell.

I think we are still somewhat in a spring pattern, though humidity has increased at the surface thanks to SE winds off of the moist Caribbean the pattern has not yet locked in into a wet summer pattern, yet another strong cold front that will drive the moisture away from the Peninsula is scheduled by both the Euro and GFS to come through by next week.
By the way, the strong ESE winds has been keeping the few afternoon storms that have popped during the past couple of days away from eastern central FL

I'd say convection so far has been way too skimpy to be considered rainy season conditions. the ducks are lining up but not quite yet. won't be long though and we may get a respectable appetizer starting this weekend. both the 5 and 7 day WPC QPF maps show a much wetter pattern over the peninsula with the heaviest rain focused on the western side of the peninsula...no doubt a function of seabreeze collisions with an easterly flow. In fact more than 1.5" is depicted from Charlotte harbor northward through the nature coast with 2"+ in the bay area. about time! hopefully we get it..

the heat this week has been remarkable. KTPA has set 3 record highs in a row (96/98/97) and KSRQ reached 100 for what I believe was only the 3rd time in their history. It looks juicier out there today so temps may be held back a bit.

Nice convective development on the west coast seabreeze this evening with some heavy rain and frequent lightning. any rain is fantastic after yet another (4 in a row) record high of 98 @ KTPA.

I have to admit it does feel like the summer humidity is here, first time this year where it just feels very muggy even with cloudy skies. My neighborhood lucked out with a couple of quick heavy tropical showers passed over us this morning.

Been lots of big fires going on around here!! Hopefully we'll get some good rain the next few days. It is so dry and hot.

I don't remember SAL in May. Is that normal for this time of year. I always thought July was the prime time for SAL.

A
Saharan air layer (sal) remains in place over much of South
Florida, which is suppressing convection despite 70s dewpoints.

If the WPC is correct the drought over the southeast is going to get a near fatal blow in the next 5 days. Even if half of what is projected falls it will bridge FL into the rainy season.

At least 40% chance of rain here for the whole week, with the rainiest periods coming around Wednesday and Thursday. Sounds like a rainy season pattern to me.

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I don't remember SAL in May. Is that normal for this time of year. I always thought July was the prime time for SAL.

A
Saharan air layer (sal) remains in place over much of South
Florida, which is suppressing convection despite 70s dewpoints.

It has happened before, I even noticed the SAL here in central FL yesterday, the inversion capped the atmosphere when originally we had 30% rain ended up more like a 0%
BTW, another big SAL outbreak now entering the eastern Caribbean will arrive to FL next weekend.

NDG wrote:

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I don't remember SAL in May. Is that normal for this time of year. I always thought July was the prime time for SAL.

A
Saharan air layer (sal) remains in place over much of South
Florida, which is suppressing convection despite 70s dewpoints.

It has happened before, I even noticed the SAL here in central FL yesterday, the inversion capped the atmosphere when originally we had 30% rain ended up more like a 0%
BTW, another big SAL outbreak now entering the eastern Caribbean will arrive to FL next weekend.

SAL this time of the year is not that uncommon but is usually more of a late June and July thing

I kind of agree....we are just not getting the kind of widespread storminess you'd expect from "the rainy season." Of course, this has seemed to be the case for several years now.

I still maintain that years ago, on days when we had easterly/southeasterly flow, morning showers and storms from about 7AM-10AM were a lot more prevalent than they are today. These days, if we get any kind of easterly flow, South Florida is nothing but a "humid desert," all day long, with the cumulus clouds having a definite "capped" appearance all day long. It wasn't like that in the summer months as often as it is today.

Florida is under the influence of distinctly mid latitude (very unusual) weather features that will bring a cold front and a categorical risk of organized severe weather to the region followed by drying for the weekend. that's definitely not a rainy season pattern in the traditional sense but it could deliver some respectable rainfall to the state due to mid latitude forcing. where was this weather set up during January? In any case some interesting weather is on tap with strong gradient winds (with an attendant coastal flooding risk in the big bend), severe potential and heavy rain potential...all of which will clear out and make way for terrific holiday weekend weather with below climo rain chances. There's a tornado watch right now for portions of north florida/south Georgia and more watch potential probably exists for portions of Florida Wednesday night which is exceptionally unusual in the warm season outside of tropical events.

Interesting weather setup today. SPC in their latest MD will be upgrading the slight risk to enhanced risk for much of central and northern Florida, citing increased threats for straight line winds and more tornadoes. Will be keenly on watch as the afternoon progresses.

Really good rains here in SE Palm Beach and over most of SE Florida too this evening, we had about 1 hour of heavy rain here, some high winds, and close lightning. Considering the general lack of rain the last two weeks and low rain chances this weekend into early next week, will take all the rain we can get. While it did appear we were in a rainy season pattern last week, this past week of generally dry and cloudless days and this frontal system coming through certainly doesn't make it feel too rainy season like despite the rain. Seems more like a spring weather pattern.

A steady moderate rain has continued for several hours now after the 1 hour of heavy rain, quite a significant rain event here in SE Florida indeed.

Down here that rain was a bust, as always seems to be the case for those lines that come in from the Gulf. I watched it mostly thin out before it reached my area - it barely rained.

overall the rain was a massive under performer in my region but some areas did cash in, especially to the north. At least we've had some rain during the past 3 weeks...the dusty dry conditions have improved and now it's just a matter of holding on for the rainy season which shouldn't be long. Looks like exquisite Memorial day weekend weather is on tap.