STORM2K

Literally looks and feels like the Amazon out there tonight! Dew point might only be 73° but the temperature is 76° and humidity is at 91%. Heck, I even saw a tree frog sitting right next to my garage door.

much lower dewpoints are very close to you..perhaps they'll bleed in overnight. Even Naples is down to 66. it's delightful up here with dewpoints near 60 I've got windows and doors open to enjoy some fresh air.

Looks like that the true start of the rainy season will start next week as the pattern locks in to a more summer pattern.

totally agree...we're finally booting the mid latitude features to the north for good. both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks depict normal to above normal precip at a time that normal is quickly getting wet so the transition from drought to swamp is likely to accelerate.

Did we happen to get another front passing through South Florida overnight? Dew points right now are hovering in the upper 50's to lower 60's, with humidity values in the 40% range. I'm starting to wonder if we are stuck in a Spring-like weather pattern that refuses to transition into Summer? Wonder what this could mean for hurricane season?

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/868845803992997888

It didn't last that long in S FL.

It looks like south florida had some mixing that allowed dews to drop (and temps to pop) not unlike that which happened on the west coast last week. we are definitely transitioning to Summer right on schedule with moisture increasing we should see seabreeze convection by mid week on a daily basis. I'm ready to watch those late day storms explode as seabreeze boundaries and outflow boundaries collide...one of the most majestic things of the Florida climate.

98 degrees in Miami yesterday, a new May record. It was truly disgusting out. The heat didn't dissipate all that quickly as soon as the sun went down, either.

Expecting 98 degrees today for max temperature at JAX.some area will see or possibly top the century mark later this afternoon. Hopefully, we will finally get into our normal rainy season pattern very soon and get some much needed rain for the peninsula.

I can finally say that the wet season has arrived to central FL! What a storm this evening across the NW side of Orlando, 2.5" of rain so far, with flooded streets.
 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/869723350523928576

NDG wrote:I can finally say that the wet season has arrived to central FL! What a storm this evening across the NW side of Orlando, 2.5" of rain so far, with flooded streets.
 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/869723350523928576

Congrats on finally managing to get some much needed rain. Now if only we could get in on some of the action, maybe later this week or weekend? Btw, I agree the rainy season has finally begun, was looking out west around 2:30 this afternoon and saw the towering storm clouds. Then around 4 the upper cloud canopy from those inland storms managed to shear off our direction and allow for some overcast skies for much of the remainder of the day.

we are definitely in a rainy season pattern now with daily convection firing off in a hot/humid airmass. tomorrow's convective scheme looks similar but by Thursday a more southeasterly flow should set up shifting the best convergence and resultant convection toward the west coast (at which time I hope to cash in). Great to see the thunderheads building to the east this evening.

Jealous of those who saw storms. I have a feeling this is going to be yet another of those dry "southeasterly flow" rainy seasons we've been having where the east coast metros just bake in hot sun all day, and look longingly at the big anvils that have built up to the north and west, 50 miles away.

Patrick99 wrote:Jealous of those who saw storms. I have a feeling this is going to be yet another of those dry "southeasterly flow" rainy seasons we've been having where the east coast metros just bake in hot sun all day, and look longingly at the big anvils that have built up to the north and west, 50 miles away.

Yeah there hasn't been a legit rainy season for the East Coast of Florida since 2014 and this year may be no different though it's too soon to say for sure.

Last night's discussion from Ruskin was eyebrow raising to say the least. WPC is also very wet over the peninsula over the next week. Here's the relevant info form NWS Tampa Bay:

Wet pattern developing over the next couple of days as
increasing southwest flow aloft will advect deep tropical
moisture originating from the tropical eastern
Pacific across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula.
00Z TBW sounding indicated PCPW value of 1.63 inches, and
this is expected to climb to AOA 2 inches over the next
couple of days. W/V imagery indicates potential for
atmospheric river type pattern might develop from the
eastern Pacific to the Florida peninsula...and this type of
pattern can produce locally heavy to excessive rainfall and
will need to be monitored closely for the next couple of
days. Drought conditions persist across the forecast area,
however if this pattern develops it can produce flooding
rainfall.

Although there has been much talk about the beginning of
the rainy season with the onset of higher pops over the next
several days, this has more to do with U/L troughing over
the region creating lower heights eliminating large scale
subsidence...deep tropical moisture advecting over the
region from the eastern Pacific, and weak daytime heating
creating increased convective instability for
shower/thunderstorm activity. Last night 1/00Z sounding is
not indicative of a typical summertime rainy season pattern
as deep westerly flow persists, and is expected to persist
for the next several days. Also, sounding indicates strong
subtropical jet over the region of over 75 knots which is
also not indicative of a typical summertime pattern. The
developing large scale wet synoptic pattern just happens to
be coincidental to the typical onset of the Florida rainy
season. However this is not the typical sea breeze driven
afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity which develops under
a strong subtropical ridge with relatively light U/L winds
one would expect with the Florida rainy season.

psyclone wrote:Last night's discussion from Ruskin was eyebrow raising to say the least. WPC is also very wet over the peninsula over the next week. Here's the relevant info form NWS Tampa Bay:

Wet pattern developing over the next couple of days as
increasing southwest flow aloft will advect deep tropical
moisture originating from the tropical eastern
Pacific across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula.
00Z TBW sounding indicated PCPW value of 1.63 inches, and
this is expected to climb to AOA 2 inches over the next
couple of days. W/V imagery indicates potential for
atmospheric river type pattern might develop from the
eastern Pacific to the Florida peninsula...and this type of
pattern can produce locally heavy to excessive rainfall and
will need to be monitored closely for the next couple of
days. Drought conditions persist across the forecast area,
however if this pattern develops it can produce flooding
rainfall.

Although there has been much talk about the beginning of
the rainy season with the onset of higher pops over the next
several days, this has more to do with U/L troughing over
the region creating lower heights eliminating large scale
subsidence...deep tropical moisture advecting over the
region from the eastern Pacific, and weak daytime heating
creating increased convective instability for
shower/thunderstorm activity. Last night 1/00Z sounding is
not indicative of a typical summertime rainy season pattern
as deep westerly flow persists, and is expected to persist
for the next several days. Also, sounding indicates strong
subtropical jet over the region of over 75 knots which is
also not indicative of a typical summertime pattern. The
developing large scale wet synoptic pattern just happens to
be coincidental to the typical onset of the Florida rainy
season. However this is not the typical sea breeze driven
afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity which develops under
a strong subtropical ridge with relatively light U/L winds
one would expect with the Florida rainy season.

This is giving me 2013 vibes. I still expect the rainy season to start soon with summer approaching but with the start to rainy season taking its time along with global ACE being the lowest it's been since 1974, this could easily be 2013 all over again.

That is an interesting discussion. In the light of what it talks about, I'm not entirely sure we've seen *classic* rainy season conditions for many weeks at a time in this state in quite some time. Those days where the prevailing flow is light to non-existent, and we get a good seabreeze from both coasts, firing up widespread convection and outflow boundary interactions that eventually blankets pretty much the whole peninsula on the satellite view......those days seem a lot fewer and further between over the last half-decade or so. To my non-scientific observations, thunderstorms seem a lot more isolated and scattered, overall.

psyclone wrote:Last night's discussion from Ruskin was eyebrow raising to say the least. WPC is also very wet over the peninsula over the next week. Here's the relevant info form NWS Tampa Bay:

Wet pattern developing over the next couple of days as
increasing southwest flow aloft will advect deep tropical
moisture originating from the tropical eastern
Pacific across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula.
00Z TBW sounding indicated PCPW value of 1.63 inches, and
this is expected to climb to AOA 2 inches over the next
couple of days. W/V imagery indicates potential for
atmospheric river type pattern might develop from the
eastern Pacific to the Florida peninsula...and this type of
pattern can produce locally heavy to excessive rainfall and
will need to be monitored closely for the next couple of
days. Drought conditions persist across the forecast area,
however if this pattern develops it can produce flooding
rainfall.

Although there has been much talk about the beginning of
the rainy season with the onset of higher pops over the next
several days, this has more to do with U/L troughing over
the region creating lower heights eliminating large scale
subsidence...deep tropical moisture advecting over the
region from the eastern Pacific, and weak daytime heating
creating increased convective instability for
shower/thunderstorm activity. Last night 1/00Z sounding is
not indicative of a typical summertime rainy season pattern
as deep westerly flow persists, and is expected to persist
for the next several days. Also, sounding indicates strong
subtropical jet over the region of over 75 knots which is
also not indicative of a typical summertime pattern. The
developing large scale wet synoptic pattern just happens to
be coincidental to the typical onset of the Florida rainy
season. However this is not the typical sea breeze driven
afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity which develops under
a strong subtropical ridge with relatively light U/L winds
one would expect with the Florida rainy season.

I really disagree with them, to call "weak daytime heating" happening now? Highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior peninsula is by no far "weak heating". Plus westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere is not unusual for this time of the year. What is unusual is to have a trough sweep through to wipe out all the moisture out of the peninsula like it happened last week something that is not expected to happen this time around.
Not all the times during the summer does seabreeze fronts form thunderstorms, you put a nice cap over us and we get lucky if we get a 5% coverage of thunderstorms in the afternoon even with a nice seabreeze front forming.

while it's not perfectly clear I interpreted this to reference incoming conditions rather than current but it is a bit unclear. Nevertheless the large takeaway is wetter conditions seem likely which is urgently needed.