STORM2K

More of a general Florida weather question......from the Wikipedia entry on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation:

"Florida rainfall[edit]
The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. Rainfall in central and south Florida becomes more plentiful when the Atlantic is in its warm phase and droughts and wildfires are more frequent in the cool phase. As a result of these variations, the inflow to Lake Okeechobee—the reservoir for South Florida’s water supply—changes by as much as 40% between AMO extremes. In northern Florida the relationship begins to reverse—less rainfall when the Atlantic is warm."

I would have thought this would be the other way around. Theoretically, if the Atlantic is in a "cool phase," wouldn't this tend to lead to a greater difference between land temp and sea temp, thus contributing to greater instability during our rainy season. I would tend to think we'd see more severe seabreeze-driven thunderstorms in the cool phase in part because of this?

gatorcane wrote:While things are looking better as far as Maria impacting Florida, getting concerned we will see a serious threat from the Caribbean in October especially since we are leaning towards La Niña and we seem to be in a hyperactive Atlantic.

Agreed, Gator. Though the GFS in continuing with its back moving forecast dates lol, the CMC is onboard with Caribbean development during early Oct. and the EURO has pressures falling during this time. It wont surprise me if in 2-4 days, we suddenly find the models all bonkers on some near/mid term system to develop out of the SW Caribbean. Guess we'll have to wait and see how the next few days play out. Kinda nice to have a bit of a breather (though Maria could still bring some surprises to the CONUS northeast perhaps?)

As an aside, I sure wish we'd get an early cold front to dry things out around here. Hoping its gonna be a cold winter for Florida, but the little i've seen seems to indicate the contrary

Do I see a weak "back-door" front dropping south into Florida in about a week? Looks like a weak short wave in conjunction with the return flow on Maria's backside might just bring most of Florida's surface flow out of the Northeast for a couple of days next week. Hey, it may not be much but after this season I'll take whatever few degree respite that comes.

Well chaser1 we could be potentially facing a strong and rather prolonged nor'easter for the Florida peninsula, looking at the latest GFS models and ensembles. A significant nor'easter looks to develop and affect the entire Florida peninsula, bringing strong northeast winds and in combination with the moisture from the Caribbean and a possible tropical disturbance forming next week out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Also, very strong High Pressure looks to build down off the Eastern U.S. seaboard beginning this weekend into next week. This looks like it's going to be a potential very wet pattern across the Florida peninsula beginning this weekend going into next week.

It is definitely something we're going to have to really watch going into the first week of October. Any way you slice it a very wet and windy pattern potentially be in store for Florida for a prolonged period.

12Z GFS is showing an interesting small Low Pressure area off the SE Florida coast on Saturday morning, then crossing the peninsula into the Eastern GOM on Sunday.

18z GFS in it’s 15-16 day range is MAYBE hinting at a possible significant pattern change for the Eastern U.S. and all of Florida with our first significant cold or “cool” front of the season bringing lower humidity and lower temperatures. For the sake of this dreaded dangerous hurricane season and the heat and humidity please be right for once in your long range GFS!

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS in it’s 15-16 day range is MAYBE hinting at a possible significant pattern change for the Eastern U.S. and all of Florida with our first significant cold or “cool” front of the season bringing lower humidity and lower temperatures. For the sake of this dreaded dangerous hurricane season and the heat and humidity please be right for once in your long range GFS!

http://i67.tinypic.com/280meyw.jpg

http://i63.tinypic.com/2h7hpq1.jpg

http://i65.tinypic.com/2430qja.jpg

Likely will be gone the next run. 15/16 day range is an eternity.

A lot of flooding here in brevard as a lot of people saw close to 11 inches of rain just yesterday alone

StormingB81 wrote:A lot of flooding here in brevard as a lot of people saw close to 11 inches of rain just yesterday alone

I heard that; no.... I should say that looking at radar all day yesterday while deciding to drive back to Orlando via I-95 or the Turnpike, I SAW that lol?!! Could'nt believe how much rain fell in your area! Would've been something to see; Cant imagine all streets must have been.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Well chaser1 we could be potentially facing a strong and rather prolonged nor'easter for the Florida peninsula, looking at the latest GFS models and ensembles. A significant nor'easter looks to develop and affect the entire Florida peninsula, bringing strong northeast winds and in combination with the moisture from the Caribbean and a possible tropical disturbance forming next week out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Also, very strong High Pressure looks to build down off the Eastern U.S. seaboard beginning this weekend into next week. This looks like it's going to be a potential very wet pattern across the Florida peninsula beginning this weekend going into next week.

It is definitely something we're going to have to really watch going into the first week of October. Any way you slice it a very wet and windy pattern potentially be in store for Florida for a prolonged period.

Well, that 'NorEaster sure did seem to set up. Wierd to even think of it as a Nor'Easter given the time of year and place but the effects were more or less the same (albeit weaker in terms of inland wind I suppose). Just such a strange set up isn't it? Guess its a bit indicative of mid level ridging over or just to the east of N. Florida which falls in place with how the overall W. Atlantic steering has exhibited for much of this summer. I'm hoping that the EURO is correct in showing a weak system ride up and ahead of some sharp dip in the westerlies in about a week. Be nice to feel some cool weather drop south and work in phase with the backside circulation that a T.C. would cause from the north. I'd doubtful though that anything right now will come out of the present environment. Somehow the tropics have seem to have taken on a very transitional look. Not to say that it won't re-load and spin off a few more T.C.'s in the weeks to come; That much I still would anticipate. Hey, so long as us Floridians dont have to simply endure hot and humid for another 8 weeks, bring on the variety of weather

chaser1 wrote:

StormingB81 wrote:A lot of flooding here in brevard as a lot of people saw close to 11 inches of rain just yesterday alone

I heard that; no.... I should say that looking at radar all day yesterday while deciding to drive back to Orlando via I-95 or the Turnpike, I SAW that lol?!! Could'nt believe how much rain fell in your area! Would've been something to see; Cant imagine all streets must have been.

I don't think I've ever seen rain fall so hard and I too had to drive home on 95.

The weather here in SE Florida seems quite typical for fall or early October. With quick moving showers, breezy to windy conditions and mostly cloudy to overcast skies making thinks feel more bearable with the humidity at least still sticking around.

I'm surprised a flash flood watch is not up yet for S. FL. Looking what might be coming from the Bahamas could cause some flooding:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF, there is no relief in sight for Florida from the heat and humidity. Perhaps by around Oct 20th or so but that is very long-range still. With this pattern and the fact we should get another Caribbean cane later this month, am still closely watching for a late season hurricane threat for us in South Florida from the south. Statistically October is the month we get hit by tropical storms and hurricanes than any other month largely because they originate from the Caribbean and get pulled northward or northeastward ahead of CONUS fronts.

With the unexpected return of La Niña I wouldn't be surprised if we have another dud of a so called South Florida winter. Hope no one is expecting any cooler weather anytime soon cause with the +NAO/+AO and a -PNA that's not going to happen.

It looks like the odds are tilting in favor of southeast ridging for the Winter which would favor above normal temps and below normal precip.

psyclone wrote:It looks like the odds are tilting in favor of southeast ridging for the Winter which would favor above normal temps and below normal precip.

The dreaded SE U..S. Ridge. I hope that doesn't set up shop this winter. I have had enough of this heat and humidity. I know people love this. But, I want some cold this winter hopefully in December and January.

I'm hoping for a sane winter. I'm no fan of cold but some crisp hoodie/sweatshirt chili makin' weather would be perfect. Here in central Florida we can have a somewhat above normal winter and still get some of that weather. Contrast that with the last 2 non winters which were ridiculous...and I say that as a fan of warm weather. My expectation at this point is for a warmer than normal winter but cooler than the last 2 years...which for me would be perfection...so maybe that's a bit of a wishcast.. Meanwhile right now the heat index is 100+ in the bay area

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF, there is no relief in sight for Florida from the heat and humidity. Perhaps by around Oct 20th or so but that is very long-range still. With this pattern and the fact we should get another Caribbean cane later this month, am still closely watching for a late season hurricane threat for us in South Florida from the south. Statistically October is the month we get hit by tropical storms and hurricanes than any other month largely because they originate from the Caribbean and get pulled northward or northeastward ahead of CONUS fronts.

Yea I think we could get a major in the Carib in late Oct/early November like Mitch (in terms of timing and intensity, possibly track too), and then we gotta watch it if it gets into the GOM. This year is similar to 1998, very warm and la nina-ish.

psyclone wrote:I'm hoping for a sane winter. I'm no fan of cold but some crisp hoodie/sweatshirt chili makin' weather would be perfect. Here in central Florida we can have a somewhat above normal winter and still get some of that weather. Contrast that with the last 2 non winters which were ridiculous...and I say that as a fan of warm weather. My expectation at this point is for a warmer than normal winter but cooler than the last 2 years...which for me would be perfection...so maybe that's a bit of a wishcast.. Meanwhile right now the heat index is 100+ in the bay area

Sure hope you're right. I think I'm a bigger fan of a good chill than you but jeeezzzzz, am at least hoping for less Winter days in the upper 70's .... ugh!