STORM2K

A fairly wet week is in tap for the FL Peninsula especially the Atlantic coast from east central FL to NE FL coming up. Surface winds rotating around a continental high surface pressure over the TN valley will be coming off the still very warm Atlantic Ocean picking up moisture and creating a lot of surface convergence along the coast. The good news is that because of cloud cover & precip the temps will cooler during the day.

With the NAO/AO forecasted to go negative into the end of the month along with a positive PNA I wouldn't rule out a significant cool down as early as late next week. Both the Euro and GFS are sniffing this out with the GFS hinting at a pattern change. Might finally be able to put a good end to at least the rainy season by the end of this month.

FWIW the 8-14 day outlook is showing temps much closer to normal which would imply a meaningful frontal passage and a substantial cooldown. I'm really excited to give my AC a break and open up the house for the cool/dry season.

Flash flood watch has been posted for Volusia & northern Brevard Counties through Tuesday night, up to 4-5" of rains is expected in some areas behind the frontal boundary tonight as 'cooler" winds come in onshore off of the warm Atlantic Ocean picking up moisture, convergence along the east coast will make for a fairly wet period from Tuesday morning at least through Wednesday with showers moving ashore into at least the Orlando area. Have to watch if the training showers set up as far south as the Melbourne area, this could worsen flooding along the St Johns River basin.

TheStormExpert wrote:With the NAO/AO forecasted to go negative into the end of the month along with a positive PNA I wouldn't rule out a significant cool down as early as late next week. Both the Euro and GFS are sniffing this out with the GFS hinting at a pattern change. Might finally be able to put a good end to at least the rainy season by the end of this month.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/AMWAxkf.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/B0I3VMm.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IN5D2SP.gif

This time of the year it will take more than barely going negative the NAO and AO to see a significant pattern change for a strong front to clear the peninsula and bring much cooler and drier wx.

we don't need a strong front to clear the peninsula. we need any front to move in and scour out the tropical air. that is certain to happen soon (it's already late). When you've been at or near record highs, going back to near or slightly above normal (which looks likely late month) will move the needle big time. Tampa has been at or above 90 for 11 out of the first 16 days in October. That is insane. And they are at 118 90+ days on the season. Meanwhile right now at midnight it's 80 with a 72 degree dewpoint. It's going to get better soon. It has to.

We've been teased before, but models are starting to come into agreement for around the 26th to finally bring us some cool weather to Florida:

Well, it is about time!! I was beginning to wonder when we would finally see some kind of cool down!! Folks, I am so happy to see it coming!! Long time coming and hopefully this will help put an end to this nightmare of a 2017 hurricane season, well at least for the ÇONUS. Good riddance!!!!

Gang we have blue on the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for the first time in ages. Hang in there...help is on the way.

GFS, EURO & CMC all show the same thing...noticable, if not significant, cooldown by the middle of next week.

I'm beyond ready for it.

Get a load of this! Could be refreshing to say the least next Thursday.

0z Euro not as strong & progressive with the cold fropa as previous 2-3 runs, it stalls it near SE FL, then lifts back up north in the 8-10 day range.

It's that weird time of year when we could get a cold front.....could get a hurricane, or could get both within the span of a week.

Sub 80 maxes are now showing in the nws forecasts over central florida with low 80's in south florida for October 25 (wed). with the dry air coming in this is going to feel terrific. shut down the ac and open up the windows. good chance of seeing some 50's for lows deep into the peninsula by late next week. considering many of these areas have struggled to get under 70 so far this will be noticeable.

12z GFS came more in line with last night's Euro, more realistic than yesterday's 06z run which must have been on crack.

NDG wrote:12z GFS came more in line with last night's Euro, more realistic than yesterday's 06z run which must have been on crack.

Well the 12Z Euro still shows plenty of cool, dry continental air spilling down into the peninsula. So it looks quite nice temperature-wise if we can make it another week.

Hurricane season for Florida may just be a done deal if this front pans out.

Low to mid 70's for highs and 50's for lows by next Thursday for the I-4 corridor next Thursday. 6-10 day shows below normal as does the 8-14 day. It's coming and it is going to be wonderful. This should also keep any tropical mischief to our south and shows why Florida's hurricane threat often de-escalates very quickly as we near Halloween. Giddyup.

Like I said on Monday it's looking increasingly likely that Florida as a whole gets its first real taste of fall with a significant cold front moving through the peninsula on Wednesday. Should bring lows well into the 50's all way down the state and highs struggling to reach the upper 70's next Thursday.

NDG wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:With the NAO/AO forecasted to go negative into the end of the month along with a positive PNA I wouldn't rule out a significant cool down as early as late next week. Both the Euro and GFS are sniffing this out with the GFS hinting at a pattern change. Might finally be able to put a good end to at least the rainy season by the end of this month.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/AMWAxkf.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/B0I3VMm.gif

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IN5D2SP.gif

This time of the year it will take more than barely going negative the NAO and AO to see a significant pattern change for a strong front to clear the peninsula and bring much cooler and drier wx.

Maybe not a pattern change but their is likely going to be a significant front moving through the state on Wednesday.

psyclone wrote:Low to mid 70's for highs and 50's for lows by next Thursday for the I-4 corridor next Thursday. 6-10 day shows below normal as does the 8-14 day. It's coming and it is going to be wonderful. This should also keep any tropical mischief to our south and shows why Florida's hurricane threat often de-escalates very quickly as we near Halloween. Giddyup.

Unfortunately I would not declare that the hurricane season is over for FL just because of a front coming through next week across the Peninsula. If the ensembles are correct of showing the PNA to go negative this would mean that the following trough coming down could be negative tilted, so SE FL will have to watch out for any development in the Caribbean over the next few days, the further west it develops the more of a threat could be for FL, IMO.