STORM2K

That's a fair point and is why I said "should" instead of "will". Nothing is certain in weather. I suspect the system will form and will eventually pass south and east of the state but that is by no means certain. What is close to certain is the passage of a cold front of consequence that will give us a sample of autumn.

The Euro has been caving into the GFS little by little of another strong front to come through FL late next weekend keeping any possible development in the Caribbean well east of FL.
The Euro has certainly been messing up lately.

BTW, did anybody noticed the hazy skies in the Peninsula today, all thanks a late season African dust burst that came across the Atlantic during the week.

NDG wrote:BTW, did anybody noticed the hazy skies in the Peninsula today, all thanks a late season African dust burst that came across the Atlantic during the week.

I just notice a cirrus canopy nothing suggesting any SAL layer on any water vapor loops.

Another 90 degree day @ Tampa. highs midweek will be cooler than recent lows. this shot of air is going to be shockingly refreshing even if brief

MetroMike wrote:

NDG wrote:BTW, did anybody noticed the hazy skies in the Peninsula today, all thanks a late season African dust burst that came across the Atlantic during the week.

I just notice a cirrus canopy nothing suggesting any SAL layer on any water vapor loops.

You have to look at visible satellite to see the dust not the water vapor satellite.

Looks like the end-of-month front early next week will officially end any more hurricane threats for South Florida and usher in the "dry season." That is quite a front looking at the temps expected. Only chance is if the SW Caribbean disturbance can impact us before that front gets here which is not looking likely.

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the end-of-month front early next week will officially end any more hurricane threats for South Florida and usher in the "dry season." That is quite a front looking at the temps expected. Only chance is if the SW Caribbean disturbance can impact us before that front gets here which is not looking likely.

Pretty much. I think we're finished.
Can't wait for refreshing cool nights and sunny mild days.

Can't remember the last time I've seen such a deep trough carve out over the Eastern U.S., it's been awhile!

Feels great outside, it surprised me how "cool" it even felt in Miami this morning. I have given up on the Euro's 5-10 day range, it's been so inconsistent.

On the other hand the GFS is showing that after early next week's even cooler shot of air temps will bounce back to above average in the 6-14 day range as the PNA goes negative, hopefully to bring much needed rain to northern California.

This front coming looks to be a touch stronger than the first one with a good chance of sub 70 highs down to the I-4 corridor on Monday but we look to warm up thereafter with above normal temps returning by midweek and lasting for the long term. both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal temps. Fortunately normal temps are way below those summer levels as we enter November.

24 degree dewpoint @ Tampa this afternoon. what a difference a couple of weeks makes.

Say good bye to the dry and cool air for a good while, but at least easterly winds will make it feel not as warm.

Maybe just maybe there could be some hope towards the second half to end of November in terms of a potential significant cooldown. The NOA and AO looks as it they may go negative enough like the last two weeks to allow maybe another cooldown or two before the month is over over (hopefully on Thanksgiving). The only thing is the PNA which is forecasted to stay negative which is unfavorable and could allow that pesky SE Ridge to stick around.

Maybe... Your right on that. I gave up looking at those ensembles past 5 days. They always seem to do the flip flop. Gets your hope up and boom. Just like the Dolphins.

Yeah, for those who were going crazy about the little spate of cool in October......it is downright toasty out today. I have a feeling that we are going to be locked into this general pattern for a while.

I'd take this weather all year. As good as it gets and exactly why people flock to the state this time of year.

Actually, a warm, dry winter is a double-edged sword for Florida. With La Niña and –PDO in place, the risk for an active wildfire (dry) season increases substantially.

On the other hand, above-average precipitation would further strain the decrepit Herbert Hoover Dike, putting Lake Okeechobee communities at risk of flooding.

It's great to be a Floridian!

At least normal to cooler days are coming by weekend and little more cooler next tuesday. According to NWS Miami:

https://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDis ... =Hollywood

Cooler times are definitely ahead. Normals are falling fast and while temps now are above normal now the 6-10 day shows normal temps and the 8-14 day tilts below normal. meanwhile precip is expected to remain below normal. the stretch of terrific weather continues and it seems like we're starting off better this cold season than the last 2 (which were insanely hot).