Texas Summer 2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

So much for that 70% chance of rain last night. Not a drop.

It's been a tough week for models and forecasters here in N. TX.

Agreed. I feel like this has been the summer of busted forecasts. Its pretty crazy, around here nobody really even pays attention to the forecasts anymore due to almost every high chance of rain in the last 2 months not ever happening.

[weatherdude1108]

Crazy amounts of rain predicted around San Angelo! Been really dry out there (worse than here), so they can probably absorb most of it.

We MAY get a half inch if we’re lucky, at this time. Back to 100 next Wednesday. Fun fun fun.

[bubba hotep]

Relatively isolated cell over downtown is putting on a show, storming pretty good.

[Haris]

What happened to DFW last night per some is not too shocking. Drought... Once you're in it , it is really hard to get out. The phrase "Never forecast rain in a drought " can apply here. :/

[Ntxw]

What happened to DFW last night per some is not too shocking. Drought... Once you're in it , it is really hard to get out. The phrase "Never forecast rain in a drought " can apply here. :/

It is also the nature of rain in the summer. It is seldom widespread and more sporadic in nature unless from a tropical entity. There tends to be more losers than winners.

[weatherdude1108]

What happened to DFW last night per some is not too shocking. Drought... Once you're in it , it is really hard to get out. The phrase "Never forecast rain in a drought " can apply here. :/

It is also the nature of rain in the summer. It is seldom widespread and more sporadic in nature unless from a tropical entity. There tends to be more losers than winners.

So true.

[austin06]

Hope we get some of that forecasted for the hill country, but so far doesn't look too great for Dripping - we are on the edge. It's probably as bad further west, but heard from three people just this week who's wells have gone dry. Last time I heard something like that was in 2011.

[bubba hotep]

Don't look now but the 12z 3k NAM rain bombs DFW!

[weatherdude1108]

Hope we get some of that forecasted for the hill country, but so far doesn't look too great for Dripping - we are on the edge. It's probably as bad further west, but heard from three people just this week who's wells have gone dry. Last time I heard something like that was in 2011.

Oh man! Crazy.

We'll be hoping and praying for that liquid gold to soak in and move underground!

[Haris]

Hope we get some of that forecasted for the hill country, but so far doesn't look too great for Dripping - we are on the edge. It's probably as bad further west, but heard from three people just this week who's wells have gone dry. Last time I heard something like that was in 2011.

Oh man! Crazy.

We'll be hoping and praying for that liquid gold to soak in and move underground!

2" + IMO Hill CO. 1" Austin... Low over Del RIo area on GFS and NAM . If it happens , soaker coming Sunday\


!!!

[Brent]

Don't look now but the 12z 3k NAM rain bombs DFW!

I'll believe it when I see it.

[CaptinCrunch]

Still no rain even on the days they forecast 50% chance...

[weatherdude1108]

Is the Tropical Tidbits site having issues? I can only get the GFS to go out to 198 hours. It's been stopped there for a couple hours. I left the site and reloaded it, still 198 hours. Anyway. Just curious if anyone else had this issue.

[Haris]

Is the Tropical Tidbits site having issues? I can only get the GFS to go out to 198 hours. It's been stopped there for a couple hours. I left the site and reloaded it, still 198 hours. Anyway. Just curious if anyone else had this issue.

No I’m not . Hmm

[Brent]

Still no rain even on the days they forecast 50% chance...

maybe October will be better, I mean it IS August, the driest month of the year...

[weatherdude1108]

Is the Tropical Tidbits site having issues? I can only get the GFS to go out to 198 hours. It's been stopped there for a couple hours. I left the site and reloaded it, still 198 hours. Anyway. Just curious if anyone else had this issue.

No I’m not . Hmm

I rebooted the computer, and still getting this. I don't know.

[bubba hotep]

There appears to be a diffuse boundary sagging along 380 in northern DFW. Storms are trying to fire along it now, let's see what can get going up there.

[weatherdude1108]

The WPC made a southward adjustment in their slight risk area earlier.


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Day 1
Valid 1826Z Thu Aug 09 2018 - 12Z Fri Aug 10 2018

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

...1830 UTC Special Update...

Based the 12 UTC hi-res guidance, as well as recent observation
trends, made a further southward adjustments to the Slight Risk
extending from the southeastern U.S. back into Texas. Also
extended this area further to the west into central Texas into the
northern Hill Country where there is a multi-model signal for
heavy amounts overnight as a slow-moving shortwave interacts with
a plume of deep moisture (PWs at or above 1.75 inches).

[Cpv17]

Is the Tropical Tidbits site having issues? I can only get the GFS to go out to 198 hours. It's been stopped there for a couple hours. I left the site and reloaded it, still 198 hours. Anyway. Just curious if anyone else had this issue.

I’m having the same problem so it’s not just you

[CaptinCrunch]

Still no rain even on the days they forecast 50% chance...

maybe October will be better, I mean it IS August, the driest month of the year...

I've had more rain so far in August .07" than I did in all of July .05"