Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

It looks like we're going to get more than a glancing blow from that next shot of cold air early next week. While the core of it might pass to our northeast, it will still probably get quite chilly across much of TX.

The coldest temp I could find on the 12z Euro for my area over the next 10 days was 43 degrees. We just recorded 33 with the front last week. So yeah it gets cold, but nothing I would consider out of the norm for this time of year. Unless you think it’ll be colder? The front last week looks more potent for our region than next weeks.

Cpv17, i hope your talking about 43 for a high lol. Its going to get cold, but the coldest air will be to your northeast. The blast shoukd be alot colder imo.

Haha nah that’s what it shows for the low. It has highs in my area near 50 degrees for a couple days. Definitely chilly for the high, but not impressed with the lows lol

[hamburgerman7070]

The coldest temp I could find on the 12z Euro for my area over the next 10 days was 43 degrees. We just recorded 33 with the front last week. So yeah it gets cold, but nothing I would consider out of the norm for this time of year. Unless you think it’ll be colder? The front last week looks more potent for our region than next weeks.

Cpv17, i hope your talking about 43 for a high lol. Its going to get cold, but the coldest air will be to your northeast. The blast shoukd be alot colder imo.

Haha nah that’s what it shows for the low. It has highs in my area near 50 degrees for a couple days. Definitely chilly for the high, but not impressed with the lows lol

If you live in del rio or corpus christy, that would make sense. Just be glad its not in January or it would be incredibly cold. It has me mid 30's for the highs if its true, but its probably a little overdone.

[Brent]

Oh ICON what are you doing

[TheProfessor]

Oh ICON what are you doing



https://i.ibb.co/Pg6hxRM/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-60-1.png

That would be an insanely interesting set up, there's some real cold to the north, if you could get a strong Gulf low to develop to pull all that cold air southward you could get a surprise snowstorm on the northwest side of the low. The GFS and Euro have been showing a possible storm in the Gulf, however the timing is different. With the Euro and Icon it seems like they are both holding some energy back that then digs. The Euro does this a couple of days later, but it's pretty similar. It seems like the GFS does hold some energy back, but it's slower and further east and it looks like it's going to develop a pretty decent east coast storm in the next few frames as of this post.

Edit: Yep, massive wind storm just off the east coast, would likely do a lot of damage even without a direct hit.

[hamburgerman7070]

Oh ICON what are you doing



https://i.ibb.co/Pg6hxRM/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-60-1.png

That would be an insanely interesting set up, there's some real cold to the north, if you could get a strong Gulf low to develop to pull all that cold air southward you could get a surprise snowstorm on the northwest side of the low. The GFS and Euro have been showing a possible storm in the Gulf, however the timing is different. With the Euro and Icon it seems like they are both holding some energy back that then digs. The Euro does this a couple of days later, but it's pretty similar. It seems like the GFS does hold some energy back, but it's slower and further east and it looks like it's going to develop a pretty decent east coast storm in the next few frames as of this post.

Edit: Yep, massive wind storm just off the east coast, would likely do a lot of damage even without a direct hit.

Hey man. Have a question. Not sure if you agree or not, but isnt the trough too far east right now except for people on the east coast for winter weather due to the +pna? Or is it just too early in the season?

[TheProfessor]

Oh ICON what are you doing



https://i.ibb.co/Pg6hxRM/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-60-1.png

That would be an insanely interesting set up, there's some real cold to the north, if you could get a strong Gulf low to develop to pull all that cold air southward you could get a surprise snowstorm on the northwest side of the low. The GFS and Euro have been showing a possible storm in the Gulf, however the timing is different. With the Euro and Icon it seems like they are both holding some energy back that then digs. The Euro does this a couple of days later, but it's pretty similar. It seems like the GFS does hold some energy back, but it's slower and further east and it looks like it's going to develop a pretty decent east coast storm in the next few frames as of this post.

Edit: Yep, massive wind storm just off the east coast, would likely do a lot of damage even without a direct hit.

Hey man. Have a question. Not sure if you agree or not, but isnt the trough too far east right now except for people on the east coast for winter weather due to the +pna? Or is it just too early in the season?

Yeah and not only is that a concern with +pna, but it has been depicted with the latest models as well. However, forecast have been predicting the NAO to go positive as well and it really can make the situation really interesting. a +NAO typically suggests that there could be a southeast ridge that blocks the eastward movement of the cold air and forces the trough to amplify. It actually seems that recently the GFS is forecasting the NAO to stay negative, so all the cold air stays to the east. However, the ensemble forecast still shows the NAO going positive. If this happens and you get a subtropical ridge to form it makes things really interesting because you're likely going to see a storm form where to the two air masses meet so where any potential boundary sets up would be important. If the southeast ridge is broken down this weekend like the GFS is predicting and doesn't recover then we are likely to see most of the cold air bleed east of Texas. The latest Euro does weaken the ridge this weaken as well, so the Tuesday system is more of a glancing blow, but it really redevelops the ridge on the east coast at the end of the run(when the NAO should be positive) with a trough digging down the plains and a storm in the Gulf. Could end up being a big Great Lakes storm in that case if the trough were to go negatively tilted.

[Brent]

the Euro has a 1048 mb high coming down and was so close to a way more interesting solution

the CMC almost had a snow event like the ICON, definitely some backside flurries on Monday

[Ntxw]

It is becoming clear that a cold air mass is coming in roughly a week. Widespread 20s even in the urban areas (central and north Texas) will be likely with highs in the 30s and 40s. Models played their little game of showing it in the very long range, kind of losing it and pushing it too far east, to now trending back slowly west (still encompassing the high Rockies to the coast). HP involved will be in the 1045-1050mb range. DFW will likely record a couple more freezes to add to the 2 already in the books. For those looking for hail mary snows, that determination will be from whatever comes out of the southwest.

Note it is really nice now that we have more ECMWF products freely available and allowed to post so this should be a fun winter of posting even more fantasy snow maps. Just remember to credit the source if it is not not already on the image itself. Most sources already have that stamped on their products.

Freezes are becoming easy this season. Likely one of the high count years in the 40-50+ range for the airport.

[gpsnowman]

I see on Ryan Maue's twitter Super Typhoon Halong is intensifying in the Pacific. I wonder if this typhoon will affect our weather in the future. Maybe bring down an arctic shot?

[Ntxw]

I see on Ryan Maue's twitter Super Typhoon Halong is intensifying in the Pacific. I wonder if this typhoon will affect our weather in the future. Maybe bring down an arctic shot?

EPO is already very negative since late October. Halong will only reinforce that going into mid-November. So maybe another cold shot after the next one.

Code: Select all

2019 10 15   79.49
2019 10 16  124.20
2019 10 17  178.88
2019 10 18  172.78
2019 10 19  147.28
2019 10 20  104.73
2019 10 21   84.29
2019 10 22   44.72
2019 10 23  -43.21
2019 10 24  -36.14
2019 10 25  -49.33
2019 10 26 -193.78
2019 10 27 -286.38
2019 10 28 -273.06
2019 10 29 -225.04
2019 10 30 -191.46
2019 10 31 -179.78
2019 11 01 -191.50
2019 11 02 -233.94
2019 11 03 -260.13

[South Texas Storms]

The system next week is looking increasingly more interesting. Confidence continues to increase that a significant cold blast will push across the state on Monday. Now the models are trending towards a cut-off low over Mexico being close enough to bring us precipitation. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas saw some light frozen precip early next week.

[Rgv20]

STS Lets take the 12zICON and run with it! Has temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s with rain all day Tuesday for Deep South Texas...I will take it!

[Cpv17]

I have a question. This doesn’t make any sense. Next Tuesday at 12pm noontime the 12z GFS has me at 38 degrees in Wharton County, but on the departure from anomaly map it has me only about 4 or 5 degrees below normal when our normal high is in the mid 70’s. What’s up with that? I notice this issue all the time and was hoping someone could explain it.

[Brent]

:uarrow: STS Lets take the 12zICON and run with it! Has temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s with rain all day Tuesday for Deep South Texas...I will take it!

https://i.imgur.com/FOMUZW6.png

Interesting how it had the same setup up here almost at 0z

[TheProfessor]

Wow, the Canadian is just going absolutely crazy with storm in the north east, 968mb Low in New England I think the U.S could see a couple of storms during the 12th-18th time span depending on how everything sets up. The Canadian is absolutely frigid in the southeast next weeks, will be interesting to see if that cold is actually too far east. Oh and that Icon run is super interesting for me as well. It had rain falling on the north shore with surface temperatures in the upper 20s or just below freezing.

[TheProfessor]

I have a question. This doesn’t make any sense. Next Tuesday at 12pm noontime the 12z GFS has me at 38 degrees in Wharton County, but on the departure from anomaly map it has me only about 4 or 5 degrees below normal when our normal high is in the mid 70’s. What’s up with that? I notice this issue all the time and was hoping someone could explain it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T850a_scus_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T2m_scus_30.png

You're looking at the temperature anomaly at the 850mb level. This is what the 2 meter temp anomalies look like.

Far more impressive

[Cerlin]

Delkus likes the Candadian model on Twitter

[Cpv17]

I have a question. This doesn’t make any sense. Next Tuesday at 12pm noontime the 12z GFS has me at 38 degrees in Wharton County, but on the departure from anomaly map it has me only about 4 or 5 degrees below normal when our normal high is in the mid 70’s. What’s up with that? I notice this issue all the time and was hoping someone could explain it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T850a_scus_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T2m_scus_30.png

You're looking at the temperature anomaly at the 850mb level. This is what the 2 meter temp anomalies look like.
https://i.imgur.com/DqaV7Bk.png
Far more impressive

Where do I need to go to look? Your image isn’t working. Says it doesn’t exist or is no longer available.

[TheProfessor]

I have a question. This doesn’t make any sense. Next Tuesday at 12pm noontime the 12z GFS has me at 38 degrees in Wharton County, but on the departure from anomaly map it has me only about 4 or 5 degrees below normal when our normal high is in the mid 70’s. What’s up with that? I notice this issue all the time and was hoping someone could explain it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T850a_scus_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110512/gfs_T2m_scus_30.png

You're looking at the temperature anomaly at the 850mb level. This is what the 2 meter temp anomalies look like.
https://i.imgur.com/DqaV7Bk.png
Far more impressive

Where do I need to go to look? Your image isn’t working. Says it doesn’t exist or is no longer available.

Oops sorry about that, this is the direct link to the 2m temp anomalies on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=174

[South Texas Storms]

850 mb generally equates to above 5000 feet above the ground. It's best to use the 2m temperature anomalies to determine the what the model is predicting our temps near the surface will be.