The last paragraph says it all about what PR and adjacent islands are going thru.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...A FAIR AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. UNDER THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO LEAD TO A GRADUAL
EROSION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. AN
OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 15K FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT TJSJ...TODAY MARKS THE SIXTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE FOURTEEN DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT TISX...TODAY MARKS
THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 89 / 0 0 10 40
STT 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 20 40
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Finnally rain on the horizon for the NE Caribbean this weekend to aliviate the mini drought and turn down the temperatures.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN
STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOCAL REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A DRIER THAN NORMAL
AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW
AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR 60 WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ESTABLISHES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROMOTING A WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 17 KTS. AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES NEAR THE ISLANDS...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 FEET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 79 / 0 10 40 30
STT 89 79 88 80 / 0 20 40 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN
STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOCAL REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A DRIER THAN NORMAL
AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW
AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR 60 WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ESTABLISHES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROMOTING A WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 17 KTS. AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES NEAR THE ISLANDS...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 FEET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 79 / 0 10 40 30
STT 89 79 88 80 / 0 20 40 20
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Bring on the rain this weekend!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVED INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. A JET OF 60 PLUS KNOTS WILL ROTATE
AROUND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT SHIFT TOWARD THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DIVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING FLOW OVER THE AREA
LIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DAYS OF
EASTERLY FLOW MID-WEEK. MOISTURE IS BEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT APPEARS TO BE GENERATING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAN THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH GOOD MOISTURE INTERMITTENT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK AND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DUST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FOLLOWING THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM AGUADA TO
NORTHERN LARES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THEY APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC SIDES OF THE ISLAND. THE AIR MASS IS DRY
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND HAS LEFT LIGHT SHOWERS IN SANTA LUCIA...BUT
SO FAR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN SAINT
MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS. MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A HEATING
BOOST EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD YIELD MORE THAN ONE INCH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND IT IS LIKELY TO BE WITH
US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DUST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK DESPITE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACROSS REGION XCP ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NW PR WHICH
WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MONITOR THESE FOR UPDATES AT
TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES. MOISTURE TO INCR WITH TROPICAL WAVE ON SAT FOR
PSBL MVFR CIGS. LLVL WINDS SE 12-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH THE
INNER BUOY NEAR SAN JUAN REPORTING LESS THAN 3 FOOT SEAS AND THE
OUTER BUOY LESS THAN 4 FEET. CONDITIONS INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
WEEK BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST SEAS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 78 88 / 10 20 20 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVED INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. A JET OF 60 PLUS KNOTS WILL ROTATE
AROUND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT SHIFT TOWARD THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DIVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING FLOW OVER THE AREA
LIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DAYS OF
EASTERLY FLOW MID-WEEK. MOISTURE IS BEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT APPEARS TO BE GENERATING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAN THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH GOOD MOISTURE INTERMITTENT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK AND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DUST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FOLLOWING THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM AGUADA TO
NORTHERN LARES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THEY APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC SIDES OF THE ISLAND. THE AIR MASS IS DRY
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND HAS LEFT LIGHT SHOWERS IN SANTA LUCIA...BUT
SO FAR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN SAINT
MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS. MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A HEATING
BOOST EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD YIELD MORE THAN ONE INCH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND IT IS LIKELY TO BE WITH
US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DUST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK DESPITE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACROSS REGION XCP ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NW PR WHICH
WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MONITOR THESE FOR UPDATES AT
TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES. MOISTURE TO INCR WITH TROPICAL WAVE ON SAT FOR
PSBL MVFR CIGS. LLVL WINDS SE 12-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH THE
INNER BUOY NEAR SAN JUAN REPORTING LESS THAN 3 FOOT SEAS AND THE
OUTER BUOY LESS THAN 4 FEET. CONDITIONS INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
WEEK BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST SEAS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 78 88 / 10 20 20 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 50
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Bring on the rain!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC WILL
HELP PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY ON MON WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OVR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT AND DRY SPELL
DO NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR PR OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY GFS40 IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AS EVEN THE ECMWF ISNT ALL THAT WET.
NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SAT NIGHT THAT WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE WRN THIRD OF PR EARLY SUN. NW PR IS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER A STRONG SRLY STEERING FLOW BUT NOT SURE THE REST OF THE
ISLAND WILL SEE MUCH RAIN. TWO THINGS THAT AM CONFIDENT
THOUGH...EVEN IF RAINS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE HIGH DENSE OVERCAST
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO FAIL TO HIT 90F AT SJU SUN. ALSO...EVEN
IF IT RAINS IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON THE SHORT
AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG
SRLY STEERING FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. I`LL BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
CONVECTION GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
SITES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT CREATING CEILINGS AT ABOUT 5K FT THAT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND
BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTER 16/12Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INCREASES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PR. TSRA LIKELY ACROSS NW PR AFTER 16/18Z
WHICH MAY AFFECT TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ. SOME OF THESE TSRA
MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EVEN IF RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND THICK CLOUDS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
LOW. HOWEVER...RAIN IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL NOT PUT A DENT ON THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SHARP
DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS DRY OUT ANY
MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM ANY RAINS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE 2012 AT SJU WAS THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85.6F DEGS AND ZERO RAINFALL.
THE SECOND WARMEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE WAS IN 1988 WHEN THE AVG
TEMP WAS 84.7F. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF IN JUNE WAS IN 1997
(A STRONG EL NINO YEAR) WHEN 0.09 INCHES OF RAIN HAD BEEN MEASURED
TO THE DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 17TH AND 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90F DEGS OR MORE AND WITHOUT RAIN RESPECTIVELY. THIS STREAK
COULD COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
THICK CLOUDS HIGH DENSE OVERCAST WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN.
THIS WAS ALSO THE DRIEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE AT SAINT CROIX WITH
ZERO RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF WAS IN 1954 WHEN
0.02 INCHES HAD BEEN MEASURED TO DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 23RD
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT RAIN AT CHRISTIANSTED. THE RECORD IS 31
DAYS BACK IN 1988.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 88 / 0 30 20 40
STT 79 81 79 81 / 10 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC WILL
HELP PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY ON MON WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OVR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT AND DRY SPELL
DO NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR PR OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY GFS40 IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AS EVEN THE ECMWF ISNT ALL THAT WET.
NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SAT NIGHT THAT WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE WRN THIRD OF PR EARLY SUN. NW PR IS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER A STRONG SRLY STEERING FLOW BUT NOT SURE THE REST OF THE
ISLAND WILL SEE MUCH RAIN. TWO THINGS THAT AM CONFIDENT
THOUGH...EVEN IF RAINS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE HIGH DENSE OVERCAST
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO FAIL TO HIT 90F AT SJU SUN. ALSO...EVEN
IF IT RAINS IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON THE SHORT
AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG
SRLY STEERING FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. I`LL BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
CONVECTION GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
SITES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT CREATING CEILINGS AT ABOUT 5K FT THAT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND
BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTER 16/12Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INCREASES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PR. TSRA LIKELY ACROSS NW PR AFTER 16/18Z
WHICH MAY AFFECT TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ. SOME OF THESE TSRA
MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EVEN IF RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND THICK CLOUDS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
LOW. HOWEVER...RAIN IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL NOT PUT A DENT ON THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SHARP
DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS DRY OUT ANY
MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM ANY RAINS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE 2012 AT SJU WAS THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85.6F DEGS AND ZERO RAINFALL.
THE SECOND WARMEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE WAS IN 1988 WHEN THE AVG
TEMP WAS 84.7F. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF IN JUNE WAS IN 1997
(A STRONG EL NINO YEAR) WHEN 0.09 INCHES OF RAIN HAD BEEN MEASURED
TO THE DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 17TH AND 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90F DEGS OR MORE AND WITHOUT RAIN RESPECTIVELY. THIS STREAK
COULD COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
THICK CLOUDS HIGH DENSE OVERCAST WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN.
THIS WAS ALSO THE DRIEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE AT SAINT CROIX WITH
ZERO RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF WAS IN 1954 WHEN
0.02 INCHES HAD BEEN MEASURED TO DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 23RD
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT RAIN AT CHRISTIANSTED. THE RECORD IS 31
DAYS BACK IN 1988.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 88 / 0 30 20 40
STT 79 81 79 81 / 10 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Abosuletly extreme cycloneye 
The temperatures in Central America on June 13 2012
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Costa Rica.
Belize city, Belize 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.2°C (37.8°F) Coldest since April 25 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.6°C (58.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F) Coldest since May 10 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F) Coldest since May 13 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Cooler than normal in the whole region.
Belize city, Belize 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F) Coolest since March 20 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F) Coolest since December 19 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F) Coolest since February 13 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F) Coolest since October 20 2012
Panama city, Panama 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.5°C (58.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 16.2°C (61.3°F) Coldest since January 3 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.0°C (77.0°F)
-Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.5°C (58.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 16.2°C (61.3°F) Coldest since January 3 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.0°C (77.0°F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. More moisture around this weekwnd will invade the NE Caribbean aliviating the drought conditions a little bit and causing less warm temperatures.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWED ABOVE-NORMAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS WELL AS RADAR DATA INDICATES MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INDUCED BY A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL TRANSPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AN US VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
ON MONDAY AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 16/17Z AND 16/21Z...IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 79 / 30 20 40 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWED ABOVE-NORMAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS WELL AS RADAR DATA INDICATES MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INDUCED BY A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL TRANSPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AN US VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
ON MONDAY AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 16/17Z AND 16/21Z...IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 79 / 30 20 40 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 40
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tropicana
- Category 5
- Posts: 8056
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
- Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
- Contact:
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Still dry across most of the Caribbean:-
Rainfall for Jun 1-15 2012
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 199.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 69.0mm (estimated)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 11.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 18.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 20.9mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 23.7mm
VC Bird Antigua 8.5mm
West End, Anguilla 1.8mm
St Croix, VI trace
St Thomas, VI trace
San Juan PR trace
Trinidad and Tobago have benefitted thatnks to added moisture from the presence of the ITCZ.
There has also been heavier rainfall around some spots on St Lucia ( Castries saw 41mm just Friday)
-justin-
Rainfall for Jun 1-15 2012
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 199.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 69.0mm (estimated)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 11.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 18.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 20.9mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 23.7mm
VC Bird Antigua 8.5mm
West End, Anguilla 1.8mm
St Croix, VI trace
St Thomas, VI trace
San Juan PR trace
Trinidad and Tobago have benefitted thatnks to added moisture from the presence of the ITCZ.
There has also been heavier rainfall around some spots on St Lucia ( Castries saw 41mm just Friday)
-justin-
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
tropicana wrote:Still dry across most of the Caribbean:-
Rainfall for Jun 1-15 2012
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 199.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 69.0mm (estimated)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 11.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 18.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 20.9mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 23.7mm
VC Bird Antigua 8.5mm
West End, Anguilla 1.8mm
St Croix, VI trace
St Thomas, VI trace
San Juan PR trace
Trinidad and Tobago have benefitted thatnks to added moisture from the presence of the ITCZ.
There has also been heavier rainfall around some spots on St Lucia ( Castries saw 41mm just Friday)
-justin-
I see it's not only in PR/VI that are mainly dry so far in June,but in other islands of the Eastern Caribbean. Thanks Justin for posting the stats,and keep them comming when you can of course.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AFTER AN ELONGATED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ROTATES
THROUGH THE OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND MOVES AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK LOW MOVES
WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM NEAR
AFRICA...BUILDING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES
AT MID LEVELS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE BEYOND
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LATE TO START...BUT MOISTURE AND HEATING
COULD NOT RESIST GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
PLAINS OF THE NORTH COAST. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVED ONTO THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. FARTHER SOUTH
RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WHOSE AXIS IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE MONA CHANNEL. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH A TRAIL OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING. THIS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAS BOOSTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.8 INCHES. IT IS SPECULATED THAT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
NOT ALLOWING MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN AND NOTED THAT BETTER
CONVECTION IS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WAVE IS STRONGER. MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY AND SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN DECREASE TO BELOW 10 MILES AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A HAZE
GREATER THAN SEEN LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO AREA WILL BE IMMUNE TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT IN AREAS WHERE
VEGETATION IS BROWNING. SOME SHOWER INCREASES WILL BE SEEN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BUT DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
WAVE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z IN TSRA. LLVL
WINDS SE AT 10-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL
INCREASE MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CONDITIONS
MERITING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT SAN JUAN...TODAY MARKS THE EIGHTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AND THE SIXTEENTH DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT SAINT THOMAS...TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE SEVENTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 88 / 10 40 40 40
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 40 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AFTER AN ELONGATED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ROTATES
THROUGH THE OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND MOVES AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK LOW MOVES
WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM NEAR
AFRICA...BUILDING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES
AT MID LEVELS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE BEYOND
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LATE TO START...BUT MOISTURE AND HEATING
COULD NOT RESIST GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
PLAINS OF THE NORTH COAST. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVED ONTO THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. FARTHER SOUTH
RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WHOSE AXIS IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE MONA CHANNEL. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH A TRAIL OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING. THIS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAS BOOSTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.8 INCHES. IT IS SPECULATED THAT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
NOT ALLOWING MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN AND NOTED THAT BETTER
CONVECTION IS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WAVE IS STRONGER. MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY AND SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN DECREASE TO BELOW 10 MILES AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A HAZE
GREATER THAN SEEN LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO AREA WILL BE IMMUNE TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT IN AREAS WHERE
VEGETATION IS BROWNING. SOME SHOWER INCREASES WILL BE SEEN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BUT DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
WAVE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z IN TSRA. LLVL
WINDS SE AT 10-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL
INCREASE MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CONDITIONS
MERITING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT SAN JUAN...TODAY MARKS THE EIGHTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AND THE SIXTEENTH DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT SAINT THOMAS...TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE SEVENTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 88 / 10 40 40 40
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 40 40
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Finnally!!! As I am typing this,it's raining over my house But ,this discussion says more dry weather for next week. 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NE ON SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MON. SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ERN PR AND THE CARIB WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE
CARIB WATERS. SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS NW
PR AND MONA CHANNEL IN A MOIST SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
BDRY LYR FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS STORMS WILL HAVE A FAST STORM MOTION ALMOST NEAR
20 KNOTS. ANY STORMS COULD GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD EVENING AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR RACES IN FROM THE EAST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY ON MON AND BEGIN TO ERODE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TRENDED POPS LOWER DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING. THEN REALLY DRY ON TUE WITH BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER THEN ESTABLISHES ON WED WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND SIG SAHARAN DUST HAZE.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHRA/TSRA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS PR AND HELP DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 17/12Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PR...AFFECTING TJMZ AND
TJBQ...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS AS WELL BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING AFTER 17/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FT BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
5-6 FT STARTING SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC. SAHARAN
DUST HAZE WILL ARRIVE ON WED AND IS LIKELY TO REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 10 20 20 10
STT 80 81 80 82 / 20 20 20 10
As I am typing this,it's raining over my house But ,this discussion says more dry weather for next week. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NE ON SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MON. SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ERN PR AND THE CARIB WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE
CARIB WATERS. SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS NW
PR AND MONA CHANNEL IN A MOIST SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
BDRY LYR FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS STORMS WILL HAVE A FAST STORM MOTION ALMOST NEAR
20 KNOTS. ANY STORMS COULD GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD EVENING AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR RACES IN FROM THE EAST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY ON MON AND BEGIN TO ERODE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TRENDED POPS LOWER DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING. THEN REALLY DRY ON TUE WITH BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER THEN ESTABLISHES ON WED WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND SIG SAHARAN DUST HAZE.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHRA/TSRA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS PR AND HELP DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 17/12Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PR...AFFECTING TJMZ AND
TJBQ...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS AS WELL BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING AFTER 17/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FT BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
5-6 FT STARTING SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC. SAHARAN
DUST HAZE WILL ARRIVE ON WED AND IS LIKELY TO REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 10 20 20 10
STT 80 81 80 82 / 20 20 20 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Is a cloudy Sunday morning in San Juan for a change and we can have a few showers today before another dry and hazy period arrives by the mid-week timeframe.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ONE OR
TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB...AND EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT TO BE CLOSE TO 90...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL QUITE MAKE
IT. SATURDAY MARKED THE 18TH DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES.
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. AN AREA
OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA TODAY. ALTHOUGH...MOST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDS...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17/16Z AND
17/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KTS AFTER 17/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 0
STT 81 80 82 80 / 20 20 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ONE OR
TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB...AND EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT TO BE CLOSE TO 90...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL QUITE MAKE
IT. SATURDAY MARKED THE 18TH DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES.
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. AN AREA
OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA TODAY. ALTHOUGH...MOST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDS...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17/16Z AND
17/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KTS AFTER 17/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 0
STT 81 80 82 80 / 20 20 10 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon. After todays semi rainy day here,a return to more dry and hot weather is expected for most of this week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PULL AWAY
AND A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL RECEDE TO THE WEST BUT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG 13
NORTH AND CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WILL MOVE TO
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT ACTOR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEYOND THAT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WEDNESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A HIGH THAT IS
MOVING WEST ALONG 30 NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RETREATS AGAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR ALL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
CONTINUING IN THE MONA CHANNEL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH
VIEQUES. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE COMING IN AROUND 06Z AND
INCREASING THE EARLY MORNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18/12Z ESPECIALLY OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN SUCH DRY AIR THAT NO SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP...
ALTHOUGH DUSTY SAHARAN AIR WILL MAKE CONVECTION DIFFICULT.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS OF 94 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN SAN JUAN. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL
ALONG THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH 42 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND IS VERY WEAK AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS AS IT PASSES
21/00Z ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO ARE
STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE ISOLATED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO CROP UP IN THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 17/24Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN
THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
TIGHTENS...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TODAY MARKS
THE NINETEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F DEGREES.
IN FACT...FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 94F DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 93 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 20 20 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PULL AWAY
AND A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL RECEDE TO THE WEST BUT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG 13
NORTH AND CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WILL MOVE TO
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT ACTOR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEYOND THAT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WEDNESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A HIGH THAT IS
MOVING WEST ALONG 30 NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RETREATS AGAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR ALL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
CONTINUING IN THE MONA CHANNEL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH
VIEQUES. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE COMING IN AROUND 06Z AND
INCREASING THE EARLY MORNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18/12Z ESPECIALLY OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN SUCH DRY AIR THAT NO SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP...
ALTHOUGH DUSTY SAHARAN AIR WILL MAKE CONVECTION DIFFICULT.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS OF 94 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN SAN JUAN. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL
ALONG THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH 42 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND IS VERY WEAK AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS AS IT PASSES
21/00Z ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO ARE
STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE ISOLATED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO CROP UP IN THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 17/24Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN
THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
TIGHTENS...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TODAY MARKS
THE NINETEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F DEGREES.
IN FACT...FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 94F DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 93 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 20 20 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Even though we've had a few days with heavy rains and severe weather, June has been unusually dry in El Salvador. Let's see if this week the anomaly reduces, hopefully without emergencies. Today we've had stronger than normal southwesterly flow because of the monsoon trough. This is the latest Pacific TWD:
AN ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE AND STRONG MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...MEANDERING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN RESUMES FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 02N140W. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SUPPORTED
BY FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP
FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW TO SPREAD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FRESH MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERSISTENT UNSTABLE
WEATHER AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS MAKE FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. IN PARTICULAR...THOSE REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRODUCED BY CARLOTTA ARE HIGHEST AT RISK. THIS
VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
$$
STRIPLING
AN ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE AND STRONG MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...MEANDERING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN RESUMES FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 02N140W. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SUPPORTED
BY FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP
FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW TO SPREAD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FRESH MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERSISTENT UNSTABLE
WEATHER AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS MAKE FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. IN PARTICULAR...THOSE REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRODUCED BY CARLOTTA ARE HIGHEST AT RISK. THIS
VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
$$
STRIPLING
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Another round of dry and warm weather is upon us for most of this week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD STILL BE ONE OR TWO STRONG
BOOMERS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LESS CLOUDINESS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...AND EXPECT THE SAN
JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TO BE NEAR 92F. SUNDAY MARKED THE 19TH DAY IN
A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES AND TODAY
PROJECTS TO BE THE 20TH.
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT HIGH TEMPERATURE TO ECLIPSE 90F...PROBABLY NEAR 93F...AND
IF SO TUESDAY WOULD BE THE 21ST DAY IN A ROW OF 90 OR BETTER.
STILL APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FEW
ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SAN JUAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90F
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WX CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANGE OF SHRA AND TSRA LATER TODAY IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 93 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD STILL BE ONE OR TWO STRONG
BOOMERS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LESS CLOUDINESS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...AND EXPECT THE SAN
JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TO BE NEAR 92F. SUNDAY MARKED THE 19TH DAY IN
A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES AND TODAY
PROJECTS TO BE THE 20TH.
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT HIGH TEMPERATURE TO ECLIPSE 90F...PROBABLY NEAR 93F...AND
IF SO TUESDAY WOULD BE THE 21ST DAY IN A ROW OF 90 OR BETTER.
STILL APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FEW
ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SAN JUAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90F
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WX CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANGE OF SHRA AND TSRA LATER TODAY IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 93 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACE BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A
RETURN TO A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIMITED MOISTURE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
REPLACE BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT. THUS...AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INDUCING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS. THE
PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE FEW
DAYS. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90F WILL PREVAIL
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RELEASE IN THE
HIGHER THAN 90S TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. STAY
TUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 19/22Z. ANY SHRA THAT HAVE YET TO APPEAR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL VERY LIKELY DISSIPATE AFT 18/23Z AND WX CONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHRA ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LLVL
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 80 91 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 89 80 88 / 30 10 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACE BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A
RETURN TO A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIMITED MOISTURE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
REPLACE BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT. THUS...AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INDUCING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS. THE
PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE FEW
DAYS. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90F WILL PREVAIL
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RELEASE IN THE
HIGHER THAN 90S TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. STAY
TUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 19/22Z. ANY SHRA THAT HAVE YET TO APPEAR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL VERY LIKELY DISSIPATE AFT 18/23Z AND WX CONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHRA ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LLVL
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 80 91 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 89 80 88 / 30 10 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
More dry and hot weather from Thursday thru next weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER DID SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS...SKY
AND WX WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
SO FAR INITIALIZED WELL...SUGGESTS INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. OTHER THAN THAT...LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY FOLLOWING
THE WAVE PASSAGE. SO FAR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST PARTICULATES
WILL BE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT TO SEE
LESSER CONCENTRATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
FOR OVERALL HOT AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. STILL SOME WAYS OUT
SO DID NOT INCLUDE HAZE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW PENDING
FURTHER ANALYSIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER DID SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS...SKY
AND WX WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
SO FAR INITIALIZED WELL...SUGGESTS INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. OTHER THAN THAT...LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY FOLLOWING
THE WAVE PASSAGE. SO FAR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST PARTICULATES
WILL BE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT TO SEE
LESSER CONCENTRATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
FOR OVERALL HOT AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. STILL SOME WAYS OUT
SO DID NOT INCLUDE HAZE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW PENDING
FURTHER ANALYSIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. A few showers will arrive on Wednesday thru Thursday,but much drier and hot weather is instored for next weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
ITS LOCATION WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR ON
ITS HEELS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE FA FROM THE EAST. SO FOR
TODAY...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO
NOT SEE A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS...AS BRIEFLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TEMPERATURE JUST
MADE 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY...MAKING 20 DAYS IN A ROW OF 90F OR
GREATER. EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY...MAKING 21 IN
A ROW AND PUTTING US IN A 7TH PLACE TIE WITH 1983 (ENDING JULY
28TH) FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90F OR MORE.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF THURSDAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A FEW ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN
RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. STREAK OF 90F+ DAYS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONT BUT SHRA WILL BE NR TIST/TISX TIL AT
LEAST DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR FROM E HAS ARRIVED AT TNCM/TKPK AND WILL
REACH USVI/PR LATER IN MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCR AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS ESE 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 80 / 20 30 50 20
STT 89 80 88 81 / 10 50 50 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
ITS LOCATION WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR ON
ITS HEELS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE FA FROM THE EAST. SO FOR
TODAY...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO
NOT SEE A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS...AS BRIEFLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TEMPERATURE JUST
MADE 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY...MAKING 20 DAYS IN A ROW OF 90F OR
GREATER. EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY...MAKING 21 IN
A ROW AND PUTTING US IN A 7TH PLACE TIE WITH 1983 (ENDING JULY
28TH) FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90F OR MORE.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF THURSDAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A FEW ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN
RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. STREAK OF 90F+ DAYS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONT BUT SHRA WILL BE NR TIST/TISX TIL AT
LEAST DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR FROM E HAS ARRIVED AT TNCM/TKPK AND WILL
REACH USVI/PR LATER IN MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCR AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS ESE 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 80 / 20 30 50 20
STT 89 80 88 81 / 10 50 50 20
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