Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...INDUCING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS MOVED RAPIDLY OVER REGION FROM THE EAST AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. FEW SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED RAPIDLY BY
ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND FOR
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN HAZY
CONDITIONS. THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE A RELEASE IN THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 20/00 WITH SOME SHRA IN THE VCNTY. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFT 20/00Z. LLVL WINDS ABV SFC TO 15 KFT EAST
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KT. OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 91 / 30 50 40 30
STT 80 88 81 88 / 50 50 30 30

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on June 17 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.3°C (46.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.7°C (44.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F) Coldest since May 9 2012

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 26.0°C (78.8°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.6°C (78.1°F) Coolest since March 14 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.7°C (83.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.3°C (88.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Panama City, Panama 31.0°C (87.8°F)

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on June 18 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75.2°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.7°C (49.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 25.6°C (78.1°F) Coolest since April 17 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F) Coolest since October 19 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.9°C (55.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Our last chance to have rain for the rest of June is today and tommorow as after that,very dry and hot weather will be the dominant pattern.See last paragraph in blue for the record books.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FCST TO
EVOLVE INTO A TUTT LOW LATER TODAY THEN BEGIN TO FILL FRI AS IT
MOVES SWWD ALONG 70W OVR THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK FROM THE ATLC WWD INTO THE NE CARIB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SHOULD NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY. MAIN WX MAKER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SWD. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FACTORS THAT
COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CVRG TODAY ARE STRONG BDRY LYR FLOW WHICH
MAY LIMIT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH STORM
MOTION NEARLY AT 20 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
I SEE BETTER TSTM POTENTIAL TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COOL
POOL WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA AND WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
ATMS FURTHER. BDRY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIKELY
RESULT IN BETTER/STRONGER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. SEVERE WX
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF
OVER 50...SWEAT INDICES NEAR 350 AND VERY UNSTABLE SHOWALTER
INDICES NEAR -5C. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
AID IN DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. I EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THU
ACROSS NW PR. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ALSO QUITE HIGH AROUND 80
M^2/S^2.

THEN SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARRIVES FOR FRI AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIG DRYING TREND. ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NW PR AT BEST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER..BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND PR AND VI TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH ESE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SCT TSTMS
TODAY AND THU WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG OR SEVERE. MARINERS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WX RADIO.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES A BIT TOO HIGH TODAY AND THU WITH SIG
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT LOW
WHEN COMPARED TO YDAY. HOWEVER...SIG DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR FRI
AND THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER THU THRU THE REST
OF THE MONTH LOOK PRETTY SLIM.


&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU WILL BE ONE DEFINITELY FOR THE RECORD
BOOKS. AVG TEMP SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 85.6F ALMOST A FULL
DEGREE WARMER THAN JUNE 1983 TO THE DATE. NOT ONLY IT LOOKS LIKE
JUNE 2012 WILL BE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD BUT IT WILL LIKELY
END AS THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR WARMER THAN ANY JULY OR
AUGUST. RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN 0.03 INCHES AND TODAY AND THU IS
THE BEST CHANCE TO ADD ANYTHING ELSE BECAUSE AFTER THU THINGS
REALLY DRY OUT UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER
RIDGE. THE HOT DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST RIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH. IF NO RAINFALL FALLS AT SJU TODAY OR THU...THE
MONTH IS LIKELY TO END AS THE SECOND DRIEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON
RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH EVER WAS MARCH 2005 WHEN NO RAIN FELL AT ALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 92 78 / 40 40 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 50 30 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A TUTT LOW TONIGHT THEN DIG SOUTH ALONG 70W OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL
EFFECTS...WIND FLOW...AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS...CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAAPS MODEL SHOWS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH MODELS FORECAST A TUTT LOW AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE
AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED MAY LIMIT THIS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NAAPS MODEL ALSO INDICATED
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIRLY DRY...WARM...AND HAZY AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER..BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJBQ UNTIL 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 91 / 20 20 10 0
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same dry and hot weather today and thru the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NEAR 30N 70W WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGER TROF
OVR ERN NOAM ON SUN. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN TO STRENGTHEN
NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE MADE SOME FLIP FLOP WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION AND FORECAST OF THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. NOW
THEY HAVE IT MEANDERING TO THE NORTH OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS
INSTEAD OF DROPPING IT SWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA LIKE THEY INDICATED
YDAY. BUT THIS DOESN`T HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN OUR SENSIBLE WX AS
LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT WILL ESTABLISH LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BEFORE THE REALLY DRY AIR ARRIVES
IN TONIGHT THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE LAST DAY OF SCT
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH HI-RES AND GFS MODELS DO NOT SEEM TOO
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY HOT AND EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE TODAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL TO -8C AND SFC TEMPS SOAR
TO THE MID 90S. WHILE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE DETRIMENTAL TO
STORM COVERAGE...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERE WITH WET MICROBURST/DAMAGING WINDS AS LIFTED INDICES
PEAK AT -8C AND SI AT -5C AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR AIDS IN STRONG
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

AFTER TODAY...PW VALUES DROP STEADILY AND BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND AN
INCH BY SUN AS SAL AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY HAZY WITH SIG DUST CONCENTRATIONS RESULTING IN
SIG AIR QUALITY DETERIORATION AS AIR MASS BECOME QUITE STABLE.
PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY NEXT SEVEN DAYS UNDER STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER RIDGE PATTERN EVEN THOUGH SAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FCST FOR NEXT WED BUT DO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH ON AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 21/17Z AND 21/22Z IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS. DUST HAZE WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND VSBYS MAY DROP TO
5SM AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. DUST HAZE
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AND MAY DROP VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SCT
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PR LATER TODAY WITH FREQ
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER TODAY SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS HUMIDITIES
DROP UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC WARMING AND HELP DESICCATE BOTH LIVE AND
DEAD FUELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE SIXTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1987. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 25 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 5 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 0 0
STT 90 81 90 81 / 10 0 0 10

[Macrocane]

pretty hot in Puerto Rico! In El Salvador June 2012 could be one of the driest Junes on record even though we've had some days with sever weather most of the month has been dry. So far in San Salvador 50 mm (1.96 inches) have been registered and in a normal year we would have already 200 mm/7.87 inches

[cycloneye]

More of the same.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN DUST HAS PREVAILED OVER THE ISLANDS. CUTOFF LOW NEAR 30N 70W
WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE IT
GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SAHARAN DUST HAS DOMINATED OVER THE AREA AND
INHIBITED CONVECTION TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED VALUES THAT WOULD
FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER...SO FAR...THE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS
BEEN TOO MUCH FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE. THIS SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...THEREFORE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY SO WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HAZE IS EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT 6 MILES OR MORE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS...DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS THE 23RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF TEMPERATURES OF
AT LEAST 90 DEGREES AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS
PUTS US ON 5TH PLACE FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER. ALSO...SO FAR THIS MONTH...IT HAS BEEN THE DRIEST
JUNE ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED AT THE SAN
JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 80 91 / 10 0 0 0
STT 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.See last paragraph that tells the story of what PR is going thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NEAR 27N 70W WILL DRIFT EAST OVR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY A LARGER TROF MON. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NARROW UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH
DRIFTS EAST. UPPER HIGH OVR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO OUR AREA MON WITH RISING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH CONTINUED HOT DRY WX PATTERN. RIDGE WILL
THEN START TO RETREAT WWD INTO THE WRN GMEX MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TUTT LOW RETREATING FROM THE CNTRL TROP ATLC
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX NOT MUCH IS XPCD TO HAPPEN NEXT SEVEN DAYS
OTHER THAN CONTINUED HOT AND DRY. IT WILL BE HAZY AGAIN TODAY
UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER BUT SKY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
ON SAT AS SAL WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER WEST. THERE IS A TROPICAL
WAVE FCST TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND WILL
ENCOUNTER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY WED BUT THE WAVE WILL BE FIGHTING
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. TO SUMMARIZE THINGS...HOT AND DRY WITH AN INCREASING FIRE
DANGER AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO 5SM MILES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS BETWEEN 5-10SM. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVR THE WEEKEND AS NARROW
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RESULTING IN STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO TO COINCIDE WITH A SIG DROP
IN HUMIDITIES/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND ALSO WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUN WHEN AREA WILL BE
UNDER CONVERGENT SIDE OF TROF AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND PW VALUES BELOW TO 2SD BELOW NORMAL. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP
DESICCATE BOTH LIVE AND DEAD FUELS WITH CONTINUED HIGH FIRE
DANGER.


&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 23RD CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1983. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 26 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 6 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.

JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.8F DEGS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 10
STT 89 82 89 82 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FA OVER
THE WEEKEND. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING DUST HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZY
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW 1.50 INCHES. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID TO
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIMITED EFFECTS...IF
ANY...OVER THE FA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. HAZE WILL AFFECT VISIBILITY A BIT BUT EXPECT 6 MILES OR
BETTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL 22/23Z...DECREASING DURING THE
NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FOR 23/13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 80 92 / 0 0 10 0
STT 82 89 82 89 / 10 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST FRI JUN 22 2012

.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ERODES SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARDS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH STILL FAIRLY HIGH
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SAL TO GRADUAL TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BUT FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TUTT INDUCED EASTERLY/LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE FEATURES ARE SO FAR EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DID HOWEVER UPDATE THE MARINE GRIDS
AS WELL AS SURFACE WINDS BASED ON LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same dry and very warm weather for the next couple of days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT JUN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ERODES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...A FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
HOWEVER SHOULD NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER REGIME. SO FAR
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT ANOTHER SAL EPISODE IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...PERHAPS SOME LINGERING HAZE THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITIONS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE AT 15G20KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. NEXT SIG SAHARAN DUST
HAZE EVENT IS XPCD ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUN DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FUELS...STRONG BREEZE...
LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z
JSJ RAOB SHOWS THAT SAL HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
AS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS AND
THUS STEEPENING OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING RELATIVELY
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. OVERALL...THREAT IS GREATEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SUN WHEN LOWEST HUMIDITIES...STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 24TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 29 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 7 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 HAS NOW TIED JUNE OF 1983 FOR THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS. THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE
RECORDED.

JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.7F DEGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 80 / 0 10 0 10
STT 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST SAT JUN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AGAIN BECOME THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AT MAX HEATING...DECENT SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WATER VAPOR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY NEAR FA
AND LIGHT VENTILATION AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WERE JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
BOOMER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOCHE DE SAN JUAN ACTIVITIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION FOR
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUS FAR...SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT HAS REACHED 93 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING THE 25TH DAY IN A ROW OF 90F DEGREES OR HIGHER.
AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF 90F OR BETTER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 10 0 10 10
STT 81 89 81 89 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on June 19 2012:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.9°C (49.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.0°C (57.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.6°C (45.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.2°C (61.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F) Coolest since March 20 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 14.5°C (58.1°F) Coldest since January 3 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 24.6°C (76.3°F) Coolest since April 16 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F) Coldest since April 24 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F) Coldest since March 6 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)

[Macrocane]

Temperatures in Central America on June 20 2012:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.4°C (57.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.9°C (60.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.4°C (79.5°F)

[Macrocane]

Temps on Jun 21 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) Warmest since May 13 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.0°C (59.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21.0°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.2°C (77.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Nothing new.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND SHOULD NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER REGIME.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS WELL AS REGIONAL WATERS DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING. SO FAR...NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ENTER OUR
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY FAIR
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NEW SAL
EPISODE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NO SIG WX. NEXT SAHARAN DUST HAZE EVENT WED WITH MAY DROP VSBYS IN
THE 5-6SM RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL JUST BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PR. THE
EASTERN HALF PR AND THE USVI WILL REMAIN BONE DRY WITH MIN_RH AOB
45% AS WAS THE CASE YDAY. WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 20 MPH AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY STEEP. FIRE
WEATHER THREAT NOW LOOKS MUCH HIGHER AND WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...HUMIDITIES MUCH LOWER AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPER. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK
HOT AND DRY AND AS DRY AS FUELS ARE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT EACH DAY
THE FIRE DANGER TO BE HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 25TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS STILL RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THE MONTH WITH THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN
THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE 2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT
RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 8 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 IS NOW THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS SURPASSING JUNE
1983 WHEN THERE WERE 7 NIGHTS. THE AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8
WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY GIVEN YEAR. THE YEAR WITH
MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.

JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.7F DEGS. JUNE 2012 IS
ALSO LIKELY TO END AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 80 / 10 20 20 20
STT 89 81 89 81 / 0 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Waouw! How worrying the situation is in PR! Not much changes in Guadeloupe too.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD...A DEVELOPING TUTT AXIS WILL ALIGN NEAR BUT MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THUS FAR...SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT HAS REACHED 92 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT THE 26TH DAY IN A ROW OF 90F DEGREES OR
HIGHER...AND PUTTING US IN 3RD PLACE TIE WITH 1982. STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF 90F OR BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN
24/18Z AND 24/22Z WHERE VCTS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. WIND
MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 25/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 91 / 20 20 20 20
STT 81 89 81 89 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Pretty hot here in Guadeloupe. Temperatures reach (listen!) 34°C at Ste Rose and 33°C at Baillif and le Moule. Moreover we have big troubles with water as the drought is severe since 3 weeks... Looks like things will not change this week even if a weak or pimpy twave should bring some showers tommorow or Tuesday, but shall see... Keep the faith all