STORM2K

Local met was saying that not to expect a cold front in Florida til January, after this reinforcing cold front today.

boca wrote:Local met was saying that not to expect a cold front in Florida til January, after this reinforcing cold front today.

That local meteorologist is more than likely correct. In fact latest model guidance suggests that the SE ridge will come back strong and we will likely be the warmest place in the country come Christmas Day!

Sounds like a nice stretch coming up as we head toward Christmas. What a terrific Fall it has been.

TheStormExpert wrote:

boca wrote:Local met was saying that not to expect a cold front in Florida til January, after this reinforcing cold front today.

That local meteorologist is more than likely correct. In fact latest model guidance suggests that the SE ridge will come back strong and we will likely be the warmest place in the country come Christmas Day!

Why do we always fall victim to a 384 hour GFS forecast?

For example, now look what it shows around Christmas after showing no cold fronts in the 384 hour run. That drives 30sF into Central Florida.

Interesting setup tonight across Florida as far as forecasted lows. Over on the west coast in places like Indian Rocks Beach right along the coast in Pinellas County in the Tampa area temps won't drop tonight and stay around 60F as winds shift SW off the Gulf and clouds increase. Head inland to Hillsborough or Polk County and lows will be some 15-18F colder without the Gulf influence. But in coastal SE Florida the lows will be some 10-12F colder than coastal West-Central Florida. Usually it is the other way around with SE Florida being warmer. The direction (and presence) of the wind makes a huge difference as we can see.

It's seems like cold can never break through at Christmas time here. Looks like another 80 degree Christmas

That is indeed very unusual. the net effect for those near the gulf coast is almost no temp drop overnight as our highs were only near 60! this is also an indication of a general warming trend which should feel very nice.

psyclone wrote:Sounds like a nice stretch coming up as we head toward Christmas. What a terrific Fall it has been.

Depends where you are in the state. The further south and east you go the more warm and humid it’ll be with that SE flow.

TheStormExpert wrote:

psyclone wrote:Sounds like a nice stretch coming up as we head toward Christmas. What a terrific Fall it has been.

Depends where you are in the state. The further south and east you go the more warm and humid it’ll be with that SE flow.

Of course it's subjective but 68 or 70 degree lows and 80 degree highs sounds pretty good. No doubt the vacationers will be content. Put on a pair of shorts and tough it out.

psyclone wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:

psyclone wrote:
Of course it's subjective but 68 or 70 degree lows and 80 degree highs sounds pretty good. No doubt the vacationers will be content. Put on a pair of shorts and tough it out.

Or the opposite when it's chilly just throw on some pants and a jacket and enjoy the break from the warm weather and tough it out

I've really enjoyed the cool weather we've had. Even better with free firewood compliments of Irma. But the southeast ridge is going to reassert itself bigtime. Look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...the warm anomalies are centered right on florida.

psyclone wrote::uarrow: I've really enjoyed the cool weather we've had. Even better with free firewood compliments of Irma. But the southeast ridge is going to reassert itself bigtime. Look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...the warm anomalies are centered right on florida.

Well it never fails that it's 80 on Christmas

StormingB81 wrote:

psyclone wrote::uarrow: I've really enjoyed the cool weather we've had. Even better with free firewood compliments of Irma. But the southeast ridge is going to reassert itself bigtime. Look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...the warm anomalies are centered right on florida.

Well it never fails that it's 80 on Christmas

Just for kicks i looked at the data from KTPA over the past 2 decades and 80 degree Christmas days are not very common (at least there). Since 1996 they've happened in 08,11, 15 and 16. You have almost as good of a shot of a sub 60 Christmas but most end up in the 60's or 70's. If i had to venture a guess at this juncture for this year @ KTPA i'd wager on 70's but it will be interesting as always to watch things unfold.

Yeah, I talked about the dreaded SE U.S. ridge in the Deep South Winter Weather thread. Yeah. unfortunately for folks who wanted a nice, cool Christmas, it looks as if that dreaded ridge looks to set up shop right in time for Christmas. It seems that ridge comes every year at this time.

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, I talked about the dreaded SE U.S. ridge in the Deep South Winter Weather thread. Yeah. unfortunately for folks who wanted a nice, cool Christmas, it looks as if that dreaded ridge looks to set up shop right in time for Christmas. It seems that ridge comes every year at this time.

it has been much more persistent in recent years. much of the country looks to be at or below normal...with the exception of the southeast and the biggest warm anomalies are centered squarely on FL.

Well, we made it through winter. It was truly harrowing for a few days there, I know, with those frigid morning temps touching the upper 40s

Anyway, in all seriousness, December is probably in the books already as far as cold weather goes, from the looks of things. I wonder if January will have any juice this year? It is supposed to be our coldest month, after all, especially the first half of it......though recent Januarys have been more like April down here.....hahaha

Well Winter Week 2017 was refreshing and nice now it's back to reality with the warmth and humid already creeping up today. After dew points last night being in the low 30's late this morning they crept back up to the mid-upper 50's and temperatures are now in the mid-upper 70's again. Here is a sneak preview of Christmas Day courtesy of the latest 12z Euro run. Just like the 2 years at this time the SE Ridge is making its return in time for Christmas Day, hope your Christmas Day festivities include the beach!

It really is quite depressing if you want cool weather,one week of winter is not enough. I hope we get another cool down in January. 85 degrees in December is just a little over the top. Here's to hoping we get a true artic front down here.

You know it's going to be a boring stretch when this board gets quiet. Maybe January will be better haha

Considering the extent of the cold expected to invade the country...it's likely that some of it eventually makes it here. Look for the warm anomalies to retreat in the extended outlooks in the coming days. that trend has already begun. maybe it cools off around or just before new year's. Christmas looks warm though.