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Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:18 pm
by gatorcane
It has finally warmed here in South Florida and now for the foreseeable future the weather is going to be near ideal with near 80 in the day and near 70 at night but without the unbearable summer-time humidity levels. This is the type of weather folks pay big bucks for. Glad that cold is over, too cold for me!
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:19 pm
by TheStormExpert
psyclone wrote:Considering the extent of the cold expected to invade the country...it's likely that some of it eventually makes it here. Look for the warm anomalies to retreat in the extended outlooks in the coming days. that trend has already begun. maybe it cools off around or just before new year's. Christmas looks warm though.
Right now it looks as if the NAO may go negative again towards the end of the month but so will the PNA which needs to be positive in order to make the colder air plunge south instead of just progressing eastward.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:26 pm
by psyclone
TheStormExpert wrote:psyclone wrote:Considering the extent of the cold expected to invade the country...it's likely that some of it eventually makes it here. Look for the warm anomalies to retreat in the extended outlooks in the coming days. that trend has already begun. maybe it cools off around or just before new year's. Christmas looks warm though.
Right now it looks as if the NAO may go negative again towards the end of the month but so will the PNA which needs to be positive in order to make the colder air plunge south instead of just progressing eastward.
yeah it might be just enough to take the edge off...maybe back close to or a shade above normal
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:30 pm
by psyclone
gatorcane wrote:It has finally warmed here in South Florida and now for the foreseeable future the weather is going to be near ideal with near 80 in the day and near 70 at night but without the unbearable summer-time humidity levels. This is the type of weather folks pay big bucks for. Glad that cold is over, too cold for me!
I agree. warm but not the freakish heat/humidity of the last 2 years. I see lots of 70's to near 80 here with 60's for lows which is divine for folks seeking a Winter respite. For vacationers, Florida at Christmas is a gamble...it could be nice but it could be miserable. This year is looking good.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:30 pm
by chaser1
WINTER SEASON CANCEL
(there, I said it
)
Oh, no doubt we'll see at least some very progressive mid Jan. to mid Feb. Pacific air fronts come through. Maybe we'll get a couple nasty Gulf systems to tear through in Feb. I'm sure we'll get a couple more quick doses of "coldish" air during the upcoming 3 monthes. Just hope we dont keep a Ridge of Death pattern over Florida for the long haul
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:50 am
by northjaxpro
Not so fast my fellow Floridian neighbors about Winter cancel posts. You are kidding me right folks? Take a look at the latest GFS and EURO runs and they ate quite the eye openers!!
The latest 0Z GFS is showing a
MASSIVE Arctic High (1058 mb) dropping out of Saskatchewan southeast into the CONUS Plains. during Christmas Eve and Christmas Day , going right into the remainder of the rest of the next 10 day period. The GFS, if correct, is showing a potential
EPIC arctic outbreak to come upon much of the Central and Eastern CONUS next week. The 0Z EURO is showing 1060.mb next week.
A massive Arctic High like that would shove that Southeast Ridge well off to the south and east. The potential of very cold temps could impact all the way down to the Gulf Coast next week. So, pay close watch for future runs, as Old Man Winter may be starting this winter season with quite a big bang indeed.. More later...
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:47 am
by gatorcane
Wow look at the 00Z GFS temps for Florida Dec 28th. Gulp
. Thankfully the 06Z shows something entirely different
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:05 am
by boca
That cold weather in Florida that the GFS has is like a cat 5 hitting Miami at 384 hour.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:52 am
by HURRICANELONNY
Lol. Maybe it's a sign of cooler weather coming end of year. Lets see if the euro sniffs something out on later runs.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:53 pm
by psyclone
Let's hope those depictions don't come to pass. I have no problem with some cool weather but I'm vehemently anti freeze. it's miserable and causes economic chaos. fortunately they've been overdone in the past. Nevertheless eventually colder air squashes the southeast ridge we cool off after Christmas...just hopefully nothing excessive.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:43 pm
by TheStormExpert
boca wrote:That cold weather in Florida that the GFS has is like a cat 5 hitting Miami at 384 hour.
Good thing chances of that happening are pretty much slim to none. The GFS is garbage beyond 5 days in my opinion. The Euro isn’t too far behind especially in its 8-10 day range this year. By the way, the 12z Euro shows no signs of that extreme arctic air penetrating South and East as it shows a pretty decent ridge centered off the SE U.S. throughout its run.
I’m ok with that since I’ll be in The Bahamas December 27th-January 4th so here’s to hoping that any successful cold front passage holds off until January 4th or beyond.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:15 pm
by boca
Cold air in Florida during a La Niña is rare especially very cold and I feel it will not happen and if it does it will be progressive and the SE ridge will win out just like the last 7 years.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:43 pm
by MetroMike
NWS Tampa Bay pm forecast disc. Calls for possible flirtations with record highs around X-mas.
Would be the 3rd year in a row for such high temps around Christmas.
I would not complain myself.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:38 pm
by psyclone
MetroMike wrote:NWS Tampa Bay pm forecast disc. Calls for possible flirtations with record highs around X-mas.
Would be the 3rd year in a row for such high temps around Christmas.
I would not complain myself.
Even the possibility is incredible to contemplate. Looks like my climo argument against another 80+ Christmas is about to blow up in my face. It's going to be interesting to see how things evolve.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:26 am
by chaser1
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Not so fast my fellow Floridian neighbors about Winter cancel posts. You are kidding me right folks? Take a look at the latest GFS and EURO runs and they ate quite the eye openers!!
The latest 0Z GFS is showing a MASSIVE Arctic High (1058 mb) dropping out of Saskatchewan southeast into the CONUS Plains. during Christmas Eve and Christmas Day , going right into the remainder of the rest of the next 10 day period. The GFS, if correct, is showing a potential EPIC arctic outbreak to come upon much of the Central and Eastern CONUS next week. The 0Z EURO is showing 1060.mb next week.
A massive Arctic High like that would shove that Southeast Ridge well off to the south and east. The potential of very cold temps could impact all the way down to the Gulf Coast next week. So, pay close watch for future runs, as Old Man Winter may be starting this winter season with quite a big bang indeed.. More later...
Well, a surface high that strong is rather impressive. I can see a pretty tight gradient here as a result. Problem is, I just dont think we'll see it from a NNW direction. You could be right about some cold breaching our 70's/80's temps closer toward the last couple days of this year, but until I see at least a couple of back to back model runs depicting troughing a bit further toward the E. Conus..... I'm just not thinking we're gonna see 30's for lows south of Gainesville. Maybe around New Years Eve but that's a bit far out to really speculate.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:53 am
by TheStormExpert
boca wrote:Cold air in Florida during a La Niña is rare especially very cold and I feel it will not happen and if it does it will be progressive and the SE ridge will win out just like the last 7 years.
The state of the ENSO really has nothing to do with our chances of seeing colder air down here in the Florida peninsula as December 2010 showed us it is possible even in a La Niña.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:59 am
by boca
I think in 2010 we had a El Niño.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:04 am
by TheStormExpert
boca wrote:I think in 2010 we had a El Niño.
That was in early 2010, December 2010 was a La Niña.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:01 am
by boca
Ok cool I wasn't sure which it was but I just want a few weeks of what we just had last week.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:02 am
by Patrick99
Doesn't, "in general," though, La Nina contribute to pumping up that subtropical SW Atlantic ridging? Sometimes that can be the difference. I seem to remember several occasions the last few years when central and north Florida got cold air, but for south Florida, this ridge ended up holding tight and didn't allow any more southward progression of cold air.