June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[tidesong]

TORNADO WARNING
MDC017-033-037-VAC059-099-153-179-050015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0026.080604T2340Z-080605T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
740 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHEASTERN KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EAST CENTRAL STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 735 PM EDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SKYWARN SPOTTERS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 95 AND STATE
ROUTE 17 ONE MILE NORTH FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. A
TORNADO ON THE GROUND! THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...TAKE
COVER NOW!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDIAN HEAD...
LA PLATA...
ST. CHARLES...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3836 7673 3836 7699 3844 7703 3841 7707
3836 7700 3836 7701 3836 7714 3840 7707
3840 7708 3836 7722 3842 7728 3856 7725
3845 7732 3835 7728 3835 7735 3850 7731
3851 7739 3864 7741 3872 7681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 271DEG 45KT 3849 7730

$$


LEE

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MOLINE ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 448...WW 451...WW
452...WW 453...WW 454...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LIFT
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT THRU THE WATCH. WITH VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AS
THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
MDC017-033-037-VAC059-099-153-179-050015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0026.080604T2340Z-080605T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
740 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHEASTERN KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EAST CENTRAL STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 735 PM EDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SKYWARN SPOTTERS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 95 AND STATE
ROUTE 17 ONE MILE NORTH FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. A
TORNADO ON THE GROUND! THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...TAKE
COVER NOW!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDIAN HEAD...
LA PLATA...
ST. CHARLES...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3836 7673 3836 7699 3844 7703 3841 7707
3836 7700 3836 7701 3836 7714 3840 7707
3840 7708 3836 7722 3842 7728 3856 7725
3845 7732 3835 7728 3835 7735 3850 7731
3851 7739 3864 7741 3872 7681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 271DEG 45KT 3849 7730

$$


LEE

It seems that corridor gets lots of tornadoes...La Plata has been devastated twice...

[wbug1]

Tornado warnings now up near Rensselaer, IA, and 3 reported tornado touchdowns in IA.

[wbug1]

0010 4 S EMERSON MILLS IA 4096 9540 HOME DESTROYED (OAX)

[Bunkertor]

Maybe it´s not that stupid to open an extra thread for tomorrow, which will launch at 12z. What do you think ?

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
729 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

NEC023-159-050100-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080605T0100Z/
BUTLER NE-SEWARD NE-
729 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
SEWARD AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 727 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AND
STORM SPOTTERS CONFIRM A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED WEST OF
ULYSSES...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO IS HEADING FOR ULYSSES. TAKE COVER NOW!!!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...ULYSSES...BEE AND DWIGHT.

THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 366 AND 382.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4113 9692 4095 9691 4100 9736 4110 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 254DEG 26KT 4108 9726

$$

DERGAN

[CrazyC83]

Maybe it´s not that stupid to open an extra thread for tomorrow, which will launch at 12z. What do you think ?

It should continue here being the same outbreak.

[Bunkertor]

To be used from 5th 12z on.

[CrazyC83]

WHOA!!!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
735 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

IAC003-029-050130-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-080605T0130Z/
ADAMS IA-CASS IA-
735 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CASS AND ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF UP TO 100 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF CARBON...OR 77 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DES
MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARBON BY 755 PM CDT...
CORNING BY 810 PM CDT...
PRESCOTT BY 830 PM CDT...

GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. COVER YOURSELF. EVACUATE
MOBILE HOMES...AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. LARGE WIND
BLOWN HAIL...AND SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE JUST LIKE A TORNADO.

THIS STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ADAMS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4091 9494 4115 9494 4115 9513 4120 9517
4123 9471 4116 9471 4116 9451 4091 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 264DEG 13KT 4106 9492

$$

SMALL

[Bunkertor]

SPC AC 041738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...SRN MN...ERN
NEB....NRN AND WRN IA...CENTRAL AND ERN KS...AND N CENTRAL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET IN
EXCESS OF 80 KT FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A ROUGHLY 990 MB LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER WRN KS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING A POSITION INVOF
ERN SD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW MOVES NWD...WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E OF THE LOW WILL ALSO MAKE SLOW NWD PROGRESS...CROSSING
ERN NEB/IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
MN/WI/UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS/WRN OK...AND INTO WRN TX BY 06/12Z.

...PORTIONS OF N TX NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID
MO VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 2 /THURSDAY JUNE 5/. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE -- AND
THEREFORE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TYPE -- REMAIN.

OVERALL...EXPECT STORMS ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF
THE WARM FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY -- TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT --
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
WITHIN THIS REGION.

MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AS HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
SLOWLY...ALLOWING INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- LIKELY ACROSS NEB/KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SWD
ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS IA/SRN MN/WI INVOF
RETREATING WARM FRONT.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRONG SLY/SSELY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS WILL VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 80 KT FROM THE SSW
AT MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY...MERIDIONAL
NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT OF
AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY-CAPPED AIRMASS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MODE WITH TIME. AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE DOMINANT MODE BECOMES LINEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE
THESE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ATTM WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO
OUTBREAK...A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS...OR
SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO...THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN
AND ERN NEB/WRN IA.

..GOSS.. 06/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0046Z (2:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Weatherfreak14]

OMG

[6SpeedTA95]

OMG

that is impressive

[CrazyC83]

That cell is definitely capable of violent tornadoes.

[Bunkertor]

21 reports now.

[wbug1]

0028 100 mph RED OAK MONTGOMERY IA 4101 9522 (OAX)

[badger70]

Live audio stream (WJEZ online) in Pontiac, IL (Livingston Co.)

http://regent.player.abacast.com/player/?pid=wjez

8:11pm CDT: Sirens reported sounded in Pontiac. No confirmed sightings at this time.(Edit: various reports of funnel(s).)

8:20pm CDT: Reportedly spotters reported the funnel had dissipated.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SRN NEB...FAR NRN KS...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...451...

VALID 050055Z - 050200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...451...CONTINUES.

WITH WW/S 448 AND 451 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...A REPLACEMENT
WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED OFFICES BETWEEN 01-02Z.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF STATIONARY
FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM 30 S AKO TO NEAR
SDA. AS MENTIONED IN MCD 1211 AND 01Z SWODY1...STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL MAINTAIN WAA WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
UPSCALE GROWTH/EXPANSION OF ONGOING TSTMS. BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...AS SAMPLED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY BY 00Z
DNR/LBF/OAX RAOBS...WILL LEAD TO 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING AOA 250
M2/S2. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN TIED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE-BASED COLD POOL/UPSCALE
GROWTH SHOULD PROMOTE ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

41499526 41009500 40369492 39939575 39689763 39380237
39400368 39900446 40190457 40520438 40770341 41070122
41339848 41499647

[CrazyC83]

MDT kept despite not being warranted on probability (hail is supposed to be hatched to be a moderate at 45%):

SPC AC 050042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEB AND SRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NERN CO TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL NWD SHIFT TO ONGOING CONVECTION FROM IA/IL...ARCING SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM SERN
CO INTO KS THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC DEPICTS A VERY DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH SFC PARCELS EXPECTED TO COOL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IS DECREASING. 16C 700 TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
STRONG E-W BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER...EWD
INTO SRN IA. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK IT APPEARS
NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. NEAR-SFC BASED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. WITH
TIME...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD EMERGE ACROSS THE MDT RISK WHICH MAY
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS NEB
INTO IA.

JUST DOWNSTREAM...WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACTING ON UNCAPPED AIRMASS
ACROSS IL/IND WILL AID RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY WITH RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP ROTATION AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
OFF AND ON IN A SCATTERED FASHION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT NWD EXPECTED.

WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
CO TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING MAY ENCOURAGE RENEWED
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NERN CO WITHIN
COOL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA...

TWO MCS CLUSTERS HAVE YET TO MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. THE LEAD MCS IS NEARING THE MD SHORE WHILE THE SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS CLEARLY THE LEAD MCS WHERE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON A BOW SHAPED APPEARANCE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH HAIL.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
DIURNAL COOLING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WV.
EVEN SO...STRONG/SEVERE UPDRAFTS SHOULD AT LEAST LINGER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW.. 06/05/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0059Z (8:59PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

Live audio stream (WJEZ online) in Pontiac, IL (Livingston Co.)

http://regent.player.abacast.com/player/?pid=wjez

Vielen Dank !