Texas Fall 2018

[Brent]

storms popping around DFW and today is one of the driest days of the week

The Euro and the GEFS do dry out next week but don't show anything too hot(average), the GFS does have a heat wave though

[weatherdude1108]

Really short discussion by the EWX this afternoon. Status quo I guess.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 051943
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
243 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the
southwestern states with a ridge over the eastern half of the
country. The mid-level flow is very weak. The surface pressure
gradient is not well defined and winds were light and variable across
our CWA. The weak upper level flow will continue during this period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region
through this period. PW will remain high and there will be pockets of
locally heavy rain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will remain stagnant into the beginning of next
week. This will mean continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend. A weak surface boundary will move down through
north Texas and toward our CWA. This may provide better focus for
convection to develop and perhaps a better chance for heavy rain over
the weekend. The WPC seven day rainfall totals are between 2 and 4
inches of rain across our CWA with the higher amounts out west.
Locally heavy rain will be possible each day and could lead to some
flooding.

[Cpv17]

I’m getting screwed over today by cloud cover. It hasn’t been warm enough here to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well, at least it’s in the 80’s & not the 90’s.

[rwfromkansas]

Almost an inch again today. Thought today was going to be dry in DFW.

[Cpv17]

Still looks like quite a bit of rain on the way for a good chunk of Texas over the next couple weeks.

[Ntxw]

Almost an inch again today. Thought today was going to be dry in DFW.

It's been very localized hit or miss. The lucky hits get a lot, others very little. DFW airport so far for the entire event has picked up less an 0.25"

[Haris]

Just went through one of the intense lightning storms . Numerous house fires !!!! 50min of raining buckets !!!!!


Total for the month - nearing 4.75”

[weatherdude1108]

Just went through one of the intense lightning storms . Numerous house fires !!!! 50min of raining buckets !!!!!

Total for the month - nearing 4.75”

I saw those storms driving home tonight looking north and west along 183. They looked scary, like severe Spring storms! Lots of lightning in sky that direction.

Got a little thunder and a lone pop up cell here, which morphed into light steady rain. Volatile tropical atmosphere. Anything goes.

[weatherdude1108]

69 by Monday morning. Coolest in 3.5 months here they said. I'll take it!


how to delete your

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
426 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A wet weather pattern continues across South Central Texas today and
Friday. Most of the rain is expected to fall across the Hill Country
and areas along and west of Highway 281, but not limited to these
regional locations. The reasoning behind this wet weather pattern is
about several features in place such as an upper level long-wave
trough across the four corners region, an upper level inverted trough
along the middle Texas coast and abundant tropical moisture available
across South Central Texas. Moderate to heavy rain is expected this
afternoon across the above mentioned areas and can`t rule out
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 40 mph with stronger storms as
suggested by area forecast soundings. With all the rainfall affecting
the western part of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau
recently, additional one to two inches of rainfall in a short period
of time could cause minor flooding across those locations.

The shower and thunderstorm activity diminishes this evening with
only isolated showers mainly across the Rio Grande and parts of
southern Edwards Plateau.

Another round of moderate to localized heavy rain is forecast for
Friday across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau as the upper level
trough over the four corners regions slowly moves to the east and a
convergence zone develops across central Texas. This area will
determine where the heaviest rain will fall as far as region over
South Central Texas. If the boundary shifts more to the south and
sits over the Hill Country, then the focus for heavy rain could be
along Highway 90 and Interstate 35 including both of the Austin and
San Antonio metro areas. With that said, it is recommended to monitor
weather conditions through the weekend for the potential for localized
heavy rain over most of South Central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
Friday night into the upcoming weekend as the upper level trough
moves across the Southern Plains and the convergence zone/low level
boundary sits near the Hill Country.

Chances for rain begin to diminish Sunday night into Monday of next
week as the upper level trough pushes to the southeast and into the
southern coastal states.

Storm total rainfall amounts (today through Sunday) could range from
2 to 4 inches with isolated pockets of 6 inches mainly across the
western two-thirds of South Central Texas. 1 to 2 inches are expected
for areas south of Highway 90 and east of Highway 37.

Important points to remember next few days:
1) There is the potential for heavy rain episodes across the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau. 2)The placement of the heavy rain
depends where the convergence zone sits. 3)Storm total rainfall amounts
(today through Sunday) could range from 2 to 4 inches with isolated
pockets of 6 inches.

Please monitor closely weather conditions and visit our
website:www.weather.gov/ewx for latest information

[weatherdude1108]

Saturday may be interesting in central and south central Texas.



Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 08 2018 - 12Z Sun Sep 09 2018

...Texas...
Deep moisture and instability become focused on a frontal boundary
or surface trough extending from northeast TX into the Rio Grande
Valley (south of the Big Bend), feeding clusters of storms that
pose the threat for flash flooding. The convection is expected to
develop near the boundary in the afternoon, at which time the mid
level forcing is fairly weak. In fact, the mid level flow
parallels the boundary, which would foster the potential for
training, and convective clusters here could result in hourly
rainfall rates in excess of 2.00 inches.

Short wave energy at the bottom of the developing long wave trough
approaches north TX could provide some synoptic scale lift to
south central TX, as the mid and upper level flow becomes
increasing difluent. Training remains a concern ahead of the short
wave energy, where 1.75/2.00 inch precipitable water air supports
hourly rainfall rates near 2.00 inches across portions of central
and south central TX. In the wake of heavy rainfall earlier this
week, flash flood guidance values are below 1.50 inches across
much of Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country of central TX, and
the additional rainfall could initiate more readily here. Due to
this, a Slight Risk was placed over these areas for Day 3.

Hayes

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018


.UPDATE...
Earlier showers and storms have diminished across the region, but
this will be short-lived, as the extremely soupy airmass in place
is only weakly capped. The abundant sunshine east of I-35/35E has
allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s at this hour, and
we`re fast approaching our convective temperature on this
morning`s FWD sounding. While moisture channel imagery reveals a
wedge of drier/warmer air pushing in on the western flank of what
remains of Tropical Depression Gordon, recent objective analysis
shows that much of our area remains blanketed under a region of
2+" PWATs. The lowest precipitation chances today will be across
our far eastern counties which will be in closest proximity to the
aformentioned drier and somewhat more subsident airmass, but
increase quickly as you head towards and west of the I-35
corridor. Nudged PoPs upwards across the Metroplex and points
north and west this afternoon given good support for better
coverage by recent runs of the HRRR-TLE and HREF. It seems
reasonable that convection may initially develop near a NW-SE
oriented differential heating zone which effectively bisects our
CWA at this time.

It shouldn`t come as any surprise that convection today will
continue to pose a locally heavy rainfall threat with 10+ kft warm
cloud depths and PWATs pushing all time record values. Couple this
with slow storm motions, and isolated 2-4" amounts are certainly
possible today. A lack of more coherent forcing for ascent should
keep these higher totals more localized, thus precluding the need
for a flash flood watch, but some isolated hydrologic issues
remain in play today.

Carlaw

[Cpv17]

It’s flat out pouring buckets here in Wharton County right now. We’ve probably gotten an inch of rain already in 20 min.

[Cpv17]

Well we just got another 2.5” here so that brings our total up to 6.5” in the past ten days.

[Brent]

no 90s next week at DFW on the Euro, EPS, or GEFS, progress...

[weatherdude1108]

I just got a half inch within the last hour, bringing my total up to 1.25 inches.

Ponding in corner of yard, so I guess it wasn't bone dry before with early July and August rains previously.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

1.75 inches in the last 45 minutes in South Frisco and still coming down.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow the latest Euro Weeklies keep much of TX unsettled over the next 46 days. Sign me up!

[bubba hotep]

Wow the latest Euro Weeklies keep much of TX unsettled over the next 46 days. Sign me up!

Was coming to post that!

[Haris]

Another strong storm in west Austin !!!

5th day in a row !

Total now has reached 5.00” ! How about that !?