Texas Spring 2024

[Texas Snowman]

We had an official freeze with a low of 32 degrees this morning at NTRA and a heavy frost here in Denison. Glad I brought the tomatoes in!

[Bhow]

RDPS has a much more volatile environment than the NAM for central texas at hour 84.

[Brent]

The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread

I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.

[Iceresistance]

Tomorrow and Thursday are looking interesting


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfP.png


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfX.png

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.

[DallasAg]

Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.

Looks like the front range should cash in with this one. We got a surprise 4" overnight in CB. The main show wasn't supposed to start until later today, so hopefully this is a sign that the storm will over produce for many.

[DukeMu]

The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread

I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.

March farther north is a transition month. The warm stuff begins in April and May. Where I grew up in NC the summer highs are also 7-8°F cooler. May in CLL and SETX is far too humid. If it were drier it would be more tolerable. Then ironically in CLL it stops raining in May or June.

I never complain about cooler or cold temps in Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.

Looks like the front range should cash in with this one. We got a surprise 4" overnight in CB. The main show wasn't supposed to start until later today, so hopefully this is a sign that the storm will over produce for many.

Fingers crossed.

[ElectricStorm]

High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.

Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.

[Iceresistance]

High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.

Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.

The inversion is the main concern here, HRRR has DPs in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow

[Edwards Limestone]

QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.

Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.

[South Texas Storms]

QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.

Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.

Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.

[Wthrfan]

QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.

Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.

Got a boat stuck in some hydrilla on Canyon Lake last June. Expensive day!

[Edwards Limestone]

QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.

Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.

Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.

I hope you're right.

I was just looking at the GFS ensembles, looks like highest totals are north and east of me at least.

[DukeMu]

QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.

Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.

Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.

I hope you're right.

I was just looking at the GFS ensembles, looks like highest totals are north and east of me at least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024031212/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png

Yes, the GFS has capitulated to the Euro and Canadian.

[ElectricStorm]

High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.

Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.

The inversion is the main concern here, HRRR has DPs in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow

I think if Td's can get slightly higher it'll be enough to break it but we'll see. 2% tornado area expanded west now

[Brent]

The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread

I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.

Yeah I don't really disagree here... It's never the same in March anyway and especially after how bad this winter was I just want to move on tbh this winter blew its chances here

On the other hand... If we could keep the below normal temps that would be good

I still don't see anything that cold either... No worse than the weekend was so far which I mean Saturday was chilly(wow one whole day ) but it is still a month that we can get really cold

[Anti-freeze]

Extreme fire weather risk for the TX panhandle today, critical for most of west TX:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

The 2 biggest fires had reached 89% and 94% containment this morning:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-wildfires-near-containment-extremely-critical-fire-weather-conditions-panhandle/

And...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-largest-ever-wildfire-smokehouse-creek-ignited-by-power-company-facilities-company-admits/

Xcel Energy, a Minneapolis-based company that powers homes across the eight states in the West and Midwest, said Thursday that its facilities played a role in the massive wildfires in the Texas Panhandle that have left at least two people dead, burned more than a million acres of land and killed thousands of animals.

(Including an estimated 10,000 cattle)

[ElectricStorm]

Not seeing it today for anything south of the Kansas border. Cap just looks a little too strong and too much dry air aloft. I'd probably say at least a 90% chance of nothing developing, although seeing a storm or two somewhere technically isn't impossible.