Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

[tornadotony]

Any severe weather outbreak - 99.5%
Tornado outbreak - 98%
Major tornado outbreak - 65%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 30%
Record tornado outbreak - 5%

[CrazyC83]

7 F5's from one system? Ummmm has that EVER happened?

No, the Super Outbreak had 6 I believe. That is why it is being called a "record" outbreak scenario - because that one beats the Super Outbreak.

[WaitingForSiren]

Any severe weather outbreak - 85%
Tornado outbreak - 70%
Major tornado outbreak - 50%
Legendary tornado outbreak-35%
Record tornado outbreak - 2%

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any Severe weather outbreak - 95%
Tornado Outbreak - 85%
Major Tornado oubtreak - 51%
Legendary Tornado outbreak - 21%
Record Tornado Outbreak - 1%

[conestogo_flood]

This is turning into an everyone come up with a wishcast/personal opinion based on what you want to happen. I think we've seen enough percentages on which topic!

[CrazyC83]

The big question - will this be another all-nighter Thursday night? That is where the worst case scenario is. A swarm of mammoth mid-afternoon tornadoes is (usually) not as bad as strong tornadoes overnight.

[senorpepr]

This is turning into an everyone come up with a wishcast/personal opinion based on what you want to happen. I think we've seen enough percentages on which topic!

Actually... mine forecast was based on meteorological parameters. The likelihood of "any" severe event is practically a given. For anyone forecasting anything greater than 5% for a record outbreak is being silly.

Matter of fact... the forecast numbers I posted... may be too high. a large area of the moderate risk area will be capped from violent tornadoes. The largest risk for that area will be large hail from elevated storms.

I see the biggest tornado threat in the lower half of the moderate risk area.

[conestogo_flood]

This is turning into an everyone come up with a wishcast/personal opinion based on what you want to happen. I think we've seen enough percentages on which topic!

Actually... mine forecast was based on meteorological parameters. The likelihood of "any" severe event is practically a given. For anyone forecasting anything greater than 5% for a record outbreak is being silly.

Matter of fact... the forecast numbers I posted... may be too high. a large area of the moderate risk area will be capped from violent tornadoes. The largest risk for that area will be large hail from elevated storms.

I see the biggest tornado threat in the lower half of the moderate risk area.

I respect your forecast, I did you see you are a met. I am just saying, everyone is coming out with one of these forecasts, and backing it up by what everyone else is saying and so fourth. Either way, it's going to tornado and we can't really say how bad, until it happens.

[6SpeedTA95]

The big question - will this be another all-nighter Thursday night? That is where the worst case scenario is. A swarm of mammoth mid-afternoon tornadoes is (usually) not as bad as strong tornadoes overnight.

Probably not, it'll probably turn to a large scale MCS and push east fairly quick. I think the tornado threat will be greatly diminished after midnight.

[wx247]

Good evening. All these super outbreak predictions make my head hurt. This looks to be an active day tomorrow... and probably will be a very devestating day unfortunately, but there are some factors really working against the tornado threat, especially across the southern end initially and then with the northern sections likely after dark the tornado threat diminishes, too. I think areas across Oklahoma and Arkansas should be most concerned about the tornado outbreak potential.

[CentralMO-TVwx]

Not sure why the threat would diminish after sundown. I think the tornadic threat could actually increase after sundown. Low level jet kicks in increasing shear, lcl's will likely lower creating a better environment for tornadic activity, and dewpoint depressions will likely decrease as well.

Still looking very active across the area...

[CrazyC83]

I'm sticking to the prediction I made this morning; I don't see anything at this point that warrants any change. Still a Level 5 (Extreme Risk) from Iowa down to southern Arkansas and from central Kansas to eastern Illinois.

[CentralMO-TVwx]

A matter of minutes until we find out if the SPC agrees at this point.

[Windy]

I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Right now SE Nebraska looks good near the triple point. Western MO should pick up some supercells off the dryline. Haven't looked much down into Arkansas because it's too far of a drive, but other chasers seem excited about it. I'm guessing central MO will get some whopper nighttime supercells.

At least the storm motion is down from previous NAM runs.

[senorpepr]

The day one is updated... a little smaller area of mdt risk than yesterday...

Once the image is posted I'll post it.

[senorpepr]

[NWIASpotter]

Like Windy, I'llbe out chasing the NE/IA area as well....

[therock1811]

See, I don't get it. Why trim the SLGT risk back at all? I just don't get that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heres mine...


Any severe weather outbreak - 95%
Tornado outbreak - 80%
Major tornado outbreak - 75%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 60%
Record tornado outbreak - 20%

Major outbreak: >25 tornadoes + a killer, or >50 tornadoes
Legendary outbreak: >50 tornadoes + an F5 or major killer, or >100 tornadoes
Record outbreak: >150 tornadoes + 7 or more F5's

This is my updated early morning...

Any severe weather outbreak - 99%
Tornado outbreak - 95%
Major tornado outbreak - 85%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 70%
Record tornado outbreak - 25% 1/4 chance

Major outbreak: >25 tornadoes + a killer, or >50 tornadoes
Legendary outbreak: >50 tornadoes + an F5 or major killer, or >100 tornadoes
Record outbreak: >150 tornadoes + 7 or more F5's


The models are showing one heck of a tornado outbreak developing. I think 75 to 100 tornado's is likely. With some veyr powerful ones and long trackers. I'v also risen the numbers across the board.

[Gorky]

Latest mesoscale Discussion indicates upgrade to high risk for parts of the watch area....