Texas Severe Weather Potential for 4/28 and 4/29

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Extremeweatherguy
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#121 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:23 pm

all you guys in the Dallas/Ft. worth area...stay safe!
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#122 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:25 pm

From my estimate, the track will run between 1/2 mile south of the Tarrant/Denton line and about 3 miles north of the line. It's probably just about near TMS right now.
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#123 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:28 pm

this storm has wind reports to 60mph and powerlines have been reported down within it. No tornado reports yet though.
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#124 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:this storm has wind reports to 60mph and powerlines have been reported down within it. No tornado reports yet though.


That's from nearly an hour ago
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#125 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:31 pm

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR WESTERN DENTON
COUNTY...

AT 1020 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALLIANCE AIRPORT. POWER
FLASHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KRUM BY 1030 PM
DENTON BY 1035 PM
CROSS ROADS BY 1045 PM

THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO MAY BE OBSCURED BY RAIN. IF YOU WAIT UNTIL
THE TORNADO IS VISIBLE BEFORE TAKING COVER IT WILL BE TOO LATE!
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#126 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:32 pm

My estimate now has it at this moment at about Exit 74 on I-35W.
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#127 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:36 pm

uh oh...power flashes can only mean one of two things...high winds or a tornado. If you are in that general area...TAKE COVER!!!
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#128 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:37 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:uh oh...power flashes can only mean one of two things...high winds or a tornado. If you are in that general area...TAKE COVER!!!


It would have gone almost directly over Texas Motor Speedway. The path ahead is mostly low-density residential areas.
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#129 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:39 pm

Thanks for the info Johnny
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#130 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:40 pm

I have family not far away from the path...we are talking miles
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#131 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:22 pm

Tornado Watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 260
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1109 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXC015-041-051-089-185-225-313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-291200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.A.0260.060429T0410Z-060429T1200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 260 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON
COLORADO GRIMES HOUSTON
MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK
SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER
WALLER WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR AND WILLIS.

$$
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#132 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:27 pm

that is weird that Harris Co. is not included.
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#133 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:29 pm

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259...

VALID 290414Z - 290545Z

...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED JUST SOUTH OF WW259...

LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE
SUFFICIENT IN FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO THEIR LFC ALONG
ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS WITH SWWD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NERN MEXICO WEST OF DRT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAP JUST SOUTH OF CURRENT WW259
WILL BE REMOVED THROUGH VERTICAL ASCENT/COOLING. DEVELOPING SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY ADVANCE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX NOT
CURRENTLY COVERED BY TORNADO WATCH. FOR THIS REASON WILL LIKELY
ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVOLUTION.

..DARROW.. 04/29/2006


ATTN...WFO...EWX...

30230053 30109845 29209826 28679926 29120077

looks like the squall line will start developing soon

EDIT: Actually, looking on radar to our west...this may already be happening. Once these two lines can meet up...this thing is going to quickly explode into a damaging MCS.
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#134 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:51 pm

I just stepped outside and realized it is EXTREMELY humid! With the breeze, humidity and fast moving cloud cover..I just have that feeling that "something" big is coming tonight.
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#135 Postby Mattie » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:52 pm

Nothing here yet in the Mckinney/Plano area - but forecasters are saying that we have until 2 am
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#136 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:04 am

It is very windy out here too, and humid... yuck
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#137 Postby Shoshana » Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:27 am

Looks like we're fixin' to get smacked with something nasty... unless it falls apart...

Spring in Texas...

urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Tornado Watch number 259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2006

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

central Texas

Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
until 200 am CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 3 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 55 statute
miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west northwest of
Dryden Texas to 55 miles east of Austin Texas. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(wous64 kwns wou9).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... this Tornado Watch replaces Tornado
Watch number 257. Watch number 257 will not be in effect after
740 PM CDT. Continue... ww 258...

Discussion... shear remains quite strong across central TX this
evening ahead of upper low now spreading over the srn High Plains.
Several supercells continue over the region attm with sufficient
shear and instability for persistent rotation with these storms
overnight. Additional development will continue along dry line over
swrn TX... with consolidation into one or two severe *mcss* expected
later tonight which will move quickly esewd. Very large hail and
isolated tornadoes will be primary severe threats... with wind
damage potential increasing overnight as possible linear MCS
develops.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
500. Mean storm motion vector 26035.


... Evans
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#138 Postby Johnny » Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:26 am

Well it's all coming together with a mean looking squall line just out to the west of Austin and it's intensifying. I'd say another 3 to 5 hours. It looks like a goodin'. I sure hope it flakes out and just gives us a nice soaking rain but it sure doesn't look that way.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#139 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Apr 29, 2006 4:56 am

the squall line is now approaching Houston, and the southern end looks to be intensifying as it gets closer. We will have to watch carefully for the next hour or so.
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#140 Postby Johnny » Sat Apr 29, 2006 5:33 am

Yep, it's fixing to enter Montgomery County. I'll stay up and watch it when it comes through.
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