Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

Extremeweatherguy · #121 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:06 pm

The low is actually harder to locate on radar tonight. I can not pick out a clear swirl. Hopefully it will become more evident as more precip. develops.

Extremeweatherguy · #122 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:06 pm

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* THE CIRCULATION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS
HELP TO PROMPTED SO MUCH RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS OVER
EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO EASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN
TO DRAW IN INCREASINGLY RICHER GULF MOISTURE LEADING TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER 9 PM OVER THE AREAS FROM CONROE TO BEAUMONT THESE SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK IN AROUND THE
GALVESTON BAY REGION NORTHWEST THROUGH...GALVESTON...HARRIS...AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTY. TOWARD MORNING THE RAINS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY
WEST. WITH THE SOILS SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SIT TIGHT AND AVOID TRAVEL THROUGH MID
MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL
LIKELY BE COMMONPLACE WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

* MANY AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS MAY BE DROPPING FROM THE EARLIER
LEVELS BUT WITH THE COPIOUS RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THE CREEKS
AND BAYOUS MAY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. IT WILL NOT TAKE AS
MUCH RAINFALL AS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY TO BRING SOME OF THESE
CREEKS AND BAYOUS OVER THEIR BANKS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR CAR FLOODS YOU WILL BE ENDANGERING
YOUR LIFE AND POSSIBLY OTHERS THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO RESCUE YOU...SO
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS! VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING
WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE
STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

teal61 · #123 Postby **teal61** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:09 pm

jschlitz wrote:Well, Dr. Frank just said the low was to the west and circled near Sealy on the map. Strange.

Earlier tonight it was right over The Woodlands, I don't think its too far from there now. Normally I wuldn't disagree with Dr Frank but I dont think its moved that far to the southwest in only an hour or two.

#124 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:15 pm

FWIW I just played back Fox on Tivo and this is what Cecelia said at 9:01:

"This is what I want you to take a look at. It doesn't look like much but there is a tell-tale sign of where our upper-level low is centered. Now it's right about over North Central Montgomery county. Earlier today it was over Liberty county. Why is that a concern? Becasue it's shifting towards the west and that means that locations in Eastern Harris county are going to be under the gun again..........."

Then again at 9:30

"......Unfortunately it's looking like some of the area that will be affected by this will include the Greens bayou watershed and that is the area that was hit so hard earlier to day, and what that means is that we are in trouble really. Literally we are in trouble right now - we really have to watch out - what is going to happen here in the next several hours. Now the upper low that we have been talking about so much is right here over the North Central part of Montgomery county. Why is that important? B/c the counter-clockwise rotation around that upper low is is tapping into that gulf moitsure and bringing it in a line that goes right over Eastern Harris county"

#125 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:19 pm

teal61 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Well, Dr. Frank just said the low was to the west and circled near Sealy on the map. Strange.

Earlier tonight it was right over The Woodlands, I don't think its too far from there now. Normally I wuldn't disagree with Dr Frank but I dont think its moved that far to the southwest in only an hour or two.

I agree - it was very evident on radar all day and just barely moved to the west. I don't think it jumped 80 miles in a snap.

Extremeweatherguy · #126 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:20 pm

Frank B. just said the center was in downtown Houston? This is weird. We are hearing 4 different areas.

Cecilia Sinclair - N. Central Montgomery county

Frank B. - Downtown Houston

Dr. Neil Frank - Sealy

NWS - Eastern Montgomery county

#127 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:21 pm

Dr. Frank just now drew it over Colorado county. Sorry, I love the guy, but I don't think that's correct.

Extremeweatherguy · #128 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:22 pm

jschlitz wrote:Dr. Frank just now drew it over Colorado county. Sorry, I love the guy, but I don't think that's correct.

may be he just doesn't want to admit that his forecast of it being in that area by 10pm was wrong.

#129 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:23 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank B. just said the center was in downtown Houston? This is weird. We are hearing 4 different areas.

Cecilia Sinclair - N. Central Montgomery county

Frank B. - Downtown Houston

Dr. Neil Frank - Sealy

NWS - Eastern Montgomery county

It is a very broad low.

Extremeweatherguy · #130 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:24 pm

The radar is getting colorful.

jabman98 · #131 Postby **jabman98** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:25 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank B. just said the center was in downtown Houston? This is weird. We are hearing 4 different areas.

Cecilia Sinclair - N. Central Montgomery county

Frank B. - Downtown Houston

Dr. Neil Frank - Sealy

NWS - Eastern Montgomery county

Heh. I was going to say the same thing - they're all putting the center somewhere different.

I think the key thing is that it's just not easy to predict where it's going to go. Pretty much everyone in the Houston area needs to be aware and ready to take action if necessary.

#132 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:36 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank B. just said the center was in downtown Houston? This is weird. We are hearing 4 different areas.

Cecilia Sinclair - N. Central Montgomery county

Frank B. - Downtown Houston

Dr. Neil Frank - Sealy

NWS - Eastern Montgomery county

It is a very broad low.

After looking at 4 different radars, I place the "center" of the low over N. Central Harris county. And unfortunately it appears to be filling in as it moves more to the West.

#133 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:41 pm

It looks like the low is broad and stacked...regardless, the Houston area, especially east of I-45 and 288, will be on the eastern flank tonight, so we need to be careful.

teal61 · #134 Postby **teal61** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:42 pm

Well, I've spent the last 30 minutes staring at radar loops, and I must admit I can't find the center any more. It was quite evident near The Woodlands earlier but now I don't know. Maybe in SW Montgomery Cty or possibly as far west as Brenham now. Heavy rains are setting up along and just east of I45 in northern Harris and southern Montgomery ctys though.

Extremeweatherguy · #135 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:43 pm

Satellite estimated 1-hour rain totals are up to near 1" in portions of NE Harris County and this is only the beginning.

HouTXmetro · #136 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:44 pm

http://maps.hcoem.org/hcrainfall.php

Here is the link to the various streams and Bayou's. Check the flood stages and real time Bayou heights. The one near my home is 25.89 with a flood stage of 32ft. Earlier we reached 30ft and it flooded the subdivision.

Extremeweatherguy · #137 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:45 pm

I see the flow is to the north in eastern Harris Co., northwest in most of Montgomery county and west in N. Montgomery county. Based on this, I am thinking the center may be slightly SW of the woodlands.

teal61 · #138 Postby **teal61** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:45 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank B. just said the center was in downtown Houston? This is weird. We are hearing 4 different areas.

Cecilia Sinclair - N. Central Montgomery county

Frank B. - Downtown Houston

Dr. Neil Frank - Sealy

NWS - Eastern Montgomery county

It is a very broad low.

After looking at 4 different radars, I place the "center" of the low over N. Central Harris county. And unfortunately it appears to be filling in as it moves more to the West.

When you say filling do you mean weakening or are you talking about the rain area expanding ?

TexasSam · #139 Postby **TexasSam** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:49 pm

So as it's looking now we could be looking at the Worst Case Scenario tonight, and Tuesday...

#140 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:50 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1048 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED HEAVY RAIN FROM A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM FROM NEAR
THE LAKE HOUSTON DAM AREA NORTHWEST TO KINGWOOD TO CUT AND
SHOOT. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THIS BAND.

* FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
HUMBLE AND KINGWOOD.

Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

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