Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

850 mb generally equates to above 5000 feet above the ground. It's best to use the 2m temperature anomalies to determine the what the model is predicting our temps near the surface will be.

Yeah, I understand that now. But we do need that layer to be cold if we want snow which hopefully we’ll see this winter.

[Cpv17]

I see the high just trended a good bit weaker on the 12z Euro and shifted even more east with the cold.

[South Texas Storms]

850 mb generally equates to above 5000 feet above the ground. It's best to use the 2m temperature anomalies to determine the what the model is predicting our temps near the surface will be.

Yeah, I understand that now. But we do need that layer to be cold if we want snow which hopefully we’ll see this winter.

Yeah I don't think we will have a chance of snow next week, but areas farther north might. Looks like we'll see a chilly rain here.

[Brent]

Delkus likes the Candadian model on Twitter

Those silly Canadians

[Ralph's Weather]

Delkus likes the Candadian model on Twitter

Those silly Canadians

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mG2H5tY/EIo-E-m4-X0-AEm-WCU.jpg [/url]

This is probably a better setup than any we had last year. The cold this year is there and typically stuff out of Mexico can surprise.

[South Texas Storms]

Delkus likes the Candadian model on Twitter

Those silly Canadians

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mG2H5tY/EIo-E-m4-X0-AEm-WCU.jpg [/url]

This is probably a better setup than any we had last year. The cold this year is there and typically stuff out of Mexico can surprise.

It's probably too early for any significant frozen precip for our areas though. If this set up happened in a month, then I think this forum would really be hopping.

[Ralph's Weather]

Those silly Canadians

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mG2H5tY/EIo-E-m4-X0-AEm-WCU.jpg [/url]

This is probably a better setup than any we had last year. The cold this year is there and typically stuff out of Mexico can surprise.

It's probably too early for any significant frozen precip for our areas though. If this set up happened in a month, then I think this forum would really be hopping.

The great snowpack and the -EPO sending down a 1040s+ high gives us a chance all depends on timing of features and how cohesive of a wave comes out of Mexico. I'm just happy that we are having weather to watch this fall.

[Brent]

This is probably a better setup than any we had last year. The cold this year is there and typically stuff out of Mexico can surprise.

It's probably too early for any significant frozen precip for our areas though. If this set up happened in a month, then I think this forum would really be hopping.

The great snowpack and the -EPO sending down a 1040s+ high gives us a chance all depends on timing of features and how cohesive of a wave comes out of Mexico. I'm just happy that we are having weather to watch this fall.

I agree its really early but its not unheard of. I'm curious if theres similarities to November 1976 when Dallas had 4 inches of snow

[TheProfessor]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

[starsfan65]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

but you can bring us the cold weather

[Brent]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

Record highs confirmed

[TheProfessor]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

but you can bring us the cold weather

Well I'll be coming up from Louisiana so I'll be bringing the warmth lol.

[Haris]

By Far last fall was wayyyy better. Down here, we’ve only had one actual rain event the last few months. The last few weeks been much cooler than other falls, so that’s a plus for sure. Just hoping for more wet weather. Snow or rain.

[starsfan65]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

Record highs confirmed

Oh really?

[gpsnowman]

I'll be in Dallas for Thanksgiving at the end of November so you can pretty much write off any chances for snow then.

Record highs confirmed

Oh really?

They are both joking. Nobody knows what Thanksgiving weather will be. Still three weeks out my friend.

[Ntxw]

By Far last fall was wayyyy better. Down here, we’ve only had one actual rain event the last few months. The last few weeks been much cooler than other falls, so that’s a plus for sure. Just hoping for more wet weather. Snow or rain.

The Pacific is changing, in particular the tropical Pacific. Since 2015 extreme rainfall events (like last Fall) have been on the rise. This year there have been fewer. To get extreme rainfall events you need warm, moist, tropical like air. It's also not good for winter snow lovers. You get a lot of qpf but it's all associated with warm, humid moisture filled air. I think you can tabulate that the very wet early 1990s and middle 2010s in the same category of wet, but snow-less periods. DFW top 10 wettest calendar years, 8/10 had virtually no snow in the winters.

SST configuration between Hawaii and Mexico have changed to more cooler state that the past few years. Thus more dry, but colder regimes.

[Haris]

Go to cod and look at gfs 18z. Snow and ice hill country and portions of red river, ton of rain

[starsfan65]

Record highs confirmed

Oh really?

They are both joking. Nobody knows what Thanksgiving weather will be. Still three weeks out my friend.

ok thanks

[aggiecutter]

[bubba hotep]

The trends have really been encouraging since the pattern flip that brought us from near record warmth to start October. The recovery that October made was really incredible and resulted in the biggest September to October flip (above avg Sept to below avg Oct). Also, the first 1/2 half of November is looking to be in the Top 10 coldest nationally and that basically guarantees a cold November. I think that only 1 of those Top 10 coldest first 1/2 ended the month outside the Top 15. Ont thing I'm watching is the longer range ensembles and right now they are too warm.

This is the Halloween GEFS 5-day mean centered on Nov 15th



Here is today centered on Nov 15th



Now to see if we can keep all of this going into DJF