Florida Weather

[NDG]

The GFS has been a joke with its inconsistencies while the the Euro has been consistent in the core of the Arctic shots continuously going out to sea staying north of the FL Peninsula.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS has been a joke with its inconsistencies while the the Euro has been consistent in the core of the Arctic shots continuously going out to sea staying north of the FL Peninsula.

Don't understand the purpose of that models 6-16 day forecasts' anymore, they're just for pure entertainment these days.

[psyclone]

It does look like a protracted period of deep winter is settling into the eastern US. While I certainly don't buy long term GFS fantasy freezes I do expect a cooler regime as we near new Year's and head into January. And the persistent cold and snowcover expansion means that if the teleconnections ever align...the foundation for more significant cold is likely to be established.

[TheStormExpert]

Now the Euro is teasing us with the same New Years front the GFS had strong now being much stronger on its 12z run.

[northjaxpro]

Merry Christmas to all of you in the Storm2K forum!! I am wishing the best to all this holiday season!

The EURO is coming around to the GFS in sending a pretty significant blast of arctic air into the Central and Eastern CONUS beginning New Year's Eve and lasting well into the first week of 2018. Looks as if the AO will go negative for the next 10-14 days. The PNA could move positive and ridging could lock into the Intermountain West region, forcing deep dump of arctic air to funnel south down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Central and rventually Eastern CONUS. This teleconnection alignment potential could spell a very significant cold spell for the Deep South and Florida.

Also, looking at the ENSO status, we are seeing quite an anomalously negative Southern Oscilation Index. This usually would be indicative of an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina as we are supposed to be in right now. This helps to explain the forecast of a potentially active subtropical jet stream in the next 10 days or potentially longer.

It is looking that the potential is increasing that much colder temperatures will enter into the peninsula beginning New Year's Day.

The interesting thing the models are suggesting is that the subtropical jet stream looks to become quite active over the next week or so. The potential is there of seeing some type of Low Pressure system to develop and spread rain along the Gulf Coast and into the North and Central Florida peninsula New Years Day and 1/2/18.

Bottom line, the chances are increasing that quite a significant cold spell could be on tap for Florida the first week of 2018 with models showing potential freezes for the Panhandle, and the northern peninsula, and potentially down to the I-4 corridor next week.

Cooler temps look to filter farther into the peninsula after New Year's Day. South Florida, you too likely will see changes, but it for now, looks as if my fellow Storm2K members down state will finally have some cooler temps after the very start of 2018.

[gatorcane]

Here it comes, yikes. Euro is also very cold for peninsula Florida though not quite as cold (yet)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS for day after New Year’s.

Has a freeze for Ft Myers, good thing is that hopefully the model is yet again overdoing things as it is 192 hours.

[NDG]

With the PNA turning postive the Peninsula could indeed turn fairly cold early next week but the Euro is not as cold as the GFS which makes sense because the NAO is forecasted to stay positve.
The Euro shows upper 30s to low 40s across the I-4 corridor and mid to upper 40s across S FL.

[NDG]

Merry Christmas to all of you in the Storm2K forum!! I am wishing the best to all this holiday season!

The EURO is coming around to the GFS in sending a pretty significant blast of arctic air into the Central and Eastern CONUS beginning New Year's Eve and lasting well into the first week of 2018. Looks as if the AO will go negative for the next 10-14 days. The PNA could move positive and ridging could lock into the Intermountain West region, forcing deep dump of arctic air to funnel south down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Central and rventually Eastern CONUS. This teleconnection alignment potential could spell a very significant cold spell for the Deep South and Florida.

Also, looking at the ENSO status, we are seeing quite an anomalously negative Southern Oscilation Index. This usually would be indicative of an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina as we are supposed to be in right now. This helps to explain the forecast of a potentially active subtropical jet stream in the next 10 days or potentially longer.

It is looking that the potential is increasing that much colder temperatures will enter into the peninsula beginning New Year's Day.

The interesting thing the models are suggesting is that the subtropical jet stream looks to become quite active over the next week or so. The potential is there of seeing some type of Low Pressure system to develop and spread rain along the Gulf Coast and into the North and Central Florida peninsula New Years Day and 1/2/18.

Bottom line, the chances are increasing that quite a significant cold spell could be on tap for Florida the first week of 2018 with models showing potential freezes for the Panhandle, and the northern peninsula, and potentially down to the I-4 corridor next week.

Cooler temps look to filter farther into the peninsula after New Year's Day. South Florida, you too likely will see changes, but it for now, looks as if my fellow Storm2K members down state will finally have some cooler temps after the very start of 2018.

Merry Christmas northjaxpro, I think the -SOI lately might have been because of the fairly strong MJO passing through the Pacific.
With the PNA forecasted now to turn positive we may indeed turn fairly cold next week here in the Peninsula but the NAO is forecasted to stay positve, the saving grace for us in central FL and S FL, but we may still be flirting with close to freezing temps along parts of the I-4 corridor with the larger snow pack across the northern US in place compared to early December when there was barely any snow up there.

[northjaxpro]

Merry Christmas to you NDG!!

Great hearing from you. Yeah, the positive NAO may be South Florida's saving grace from having major cold durge. However, a -AO +PNA setup can bring cold surges to Florida. This may be that setup coming up next week. Good observation regarding added snow pack as well. That element is significant in itself in helping to keep that frigid air mass from moderating much next week.

I have had only one freeze so far measured, but next week we could have several measured here in Jax. I am hoping the STJ is active as getting significant rain this time of year is an added bonus in our normal dry season Nov-March) The models are continuing to hint at possible Low Pressure moving out of the GOM around New Year's Day.

[StormingB81]

Let it be 2010 again and see winter precipitation for north and central Florida lol

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro has the 850mb 0C line slightly more south which means it has gone slightly colder for this New Year’s front for Florida. Looks pretty certain cold is coming again but the question is how cold?

[psyclone]

Remember the GFS was projecting 20's down into the glades on the 28th....so long range predictions should be taken with a very big grain of salt. Temps do look to run on the cool side of normal through the first week of January but whether or not we get a blast of cold remains to be seen. We're having a seasonal temp regime for Christmas day with temps near 70 here which is a delightful change of pace compared to the previous 2 Christmas days. Merry Christmas fellow weather geeks!

[TheStormExpert]

Well the CPC’s extended range temperature outlooks now show below average temperatures all the way down through South Florida as of this afternoons update. The core of the cold just like a few weeks ago looks to remain in the Mid-Atlantic region though. Was hoping that whatever cooler or even colder weather holds off until just after the new year. But if latest Euro runs come true it should be getting cooler at least starting New Years Eve.

[psyclone]

yes they do. both the 6-10 and 8-14 show things on the cool side of normal. this could mean a protracted period of cool weather or perhaps a cold blast at some point...maybe a bit of each. Notice the above normal precip anoms along the Gulf coast as well. It makes me favor the protracted cool option for us. Maybe the pattern will eventually allow some wintry precip for the deep south too. It's definitely feeling more normal this year with alternating shots of cool and warm rather than persistent warmth. Gut instinct says solid jacket weather for new year's eve revelers.

[gatorcane]

Looks like some “Gulf Stream effect” snow off the SE US coast with some wintry mix over the north Central Gulf too pretty far south also. Latet GFS going with a freeze deep into Central Florida again almost down to Ft Myers with a freeze for Tampa.

[northjaxpro]

Well, that happened here on January 8, 2015. A big Arctic High dropped down out of Canada into the Eastern CONUS. The orientation of that High caused the wind to veer onshore off the Atlantic along the Northeast Florida coast. Moisture with a stratocumulus overcast deck rolled in from the Atlantic and gave us some light snow/flurries that day in the Jax area. The deck of clouds extended inland only about 20 miles from the coast. Also, the GFS was right in showing that potential of ocean-effect light snow/flurries at that time more than one week out from that event to my memory.

So, another type of potential similar set-up is definitely not out of the realm of possibility for sure. I will be watching that carefully.

The pattern overall could become as favorable as it can get for the potential of wintry precip across North and even into portions of Central Florida. The possibility of having a very active subtropical jet and disturbances moving along it over the cold arctic air dome that will be in place next week across the region makes it an interesting possibility if everything comes together for such a rare event like this to occur in this area.

[StormingB81]

NorthJaxPro

How are down do you think it could

[northjaxpro]

Hey Storming, I think you are asking how cold it could get next week right?

Well, if the positive PNA forecast holds true, and AO going negative, which is definitely in progress now, this teleconnection alignment can bring significant cold to the state.Now, the ideal set'up for very cold air to penetrate down the spine of the Florida peninsula is a negative NAO, which at this time is not trending that way.

However, I still feel that we will see freezes next week across all of North Florida and temps may get close to freezing over portions of central Florida at least to near the I-4 corridor. 18Z GFS is showing a 1061 mb Arctic High, which is forecast to penetrate down into the Plains this time next week. This strong of an Arctic High and its massive size should definitely bring some freezes to North Florida for sure.

[NDG]

This morning the GFS is all alone with its forecast of such bitterly cold air for the deep south & FL, not even the cold biased CMC is on board with the GFS.
Not until the other models jump on board with the GFS I am not buying it.