Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

In Puerto Rico,it has been a variable Thursday with periods of sun but then clouds roll in bringing scattered showers and a few winds in gusts.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 19N40W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N38W.
WAVE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS A GREAT AREA OF THE WAVE S OF 15N. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF
DRY/SAHARAN AIR CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE WAVE LIMITING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N67W TO 12N62W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
PRECEDES A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF THE
MONA PASSAGE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING
THE ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N22W 12N35W
TO 8N46W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND WITHIN 130 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 30W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS FOUND OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN...AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E
OF THE MONA PASSAGE. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE OVERALL
ACTIVITY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTH WEST
CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
NRN COLOMBIA TO THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND WRN COSTA
RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
WITH A FEW ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERING A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
SAHARAN DUST NOTED ON MOST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY DATA.

[Gustywind]

At last, not much "action " from this twave in Guadeloupe. Weather is always very cloudy, but we don't have episodes of rain since this morning 7am.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS UPPER HIGH
NOSES IN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
AND MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
DECENT UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION FROM DEPARTING TUTT/APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY SATURDAY ALSO. THEREAFTER...THE MOVEMENT OF THE SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL DETERMINE THE
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...BUT THIS IS NOT
YET ETCHED IN STONE. LOOKING AHEAD...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AND PROBABLY BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS (AMZ710) BEGINNING AT 6 AM AST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 50 60 50 50
STT 81 89 81 91 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N39W TO 9N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
WAS ALIGNED WITH A TILT TO BETTER FIT THE SHAPE OF A BROAD SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT TRAILS THE WAVE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY. DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N67W
TO 12N63W. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A TILTED SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...WHICH EXPLAINS THE TILT OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E AND 150 NM W OF THE AXIS. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ERN CUBA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN AND
DIFFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 13N16W CONTINUING ALONG 14N30W TO 9N49W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N49W CONTINUING TO 9N61W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS...BUT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS NEARING THE
AFRICAN COASTLINE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WATERS TO THE E TO 85W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ACROSS SRN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS JAMAICA.
THESE ARE LIKELY TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
COVERS MUCH OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF THE COUNTRY TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 66W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR
20N78W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
TRAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AND WILL LIKELY HIT THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS BAND WILL
REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR AND USVI ON FRIDAY. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WAS APPROACHING TJNR AS OF 20/00Z AND
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE WIDESPREAD WITH ISOLD SHRA BELOW.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE ABC
ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA AFT 20/12Z IN PUERTO RICO WITH INCRG
MTN OBSCURATIONS THRU 20/18Z. AREAS OF MVFR WITH VERY LCL IFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AFT 20/16Z AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL AT TJPS
AND TJSJ. SHRA VCNTY TKPK AND TNCM WILL CONT THRU PD WITH BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS. LLVL WINDS ELY 20-30KTS 1-22 KFT AND HENCE
GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 28 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED VCNTY SHRA/TSRA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected today as moisture is high behind the Tropical Wave. For next week,another wave will bring scattered showers to the Eastern Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUED
TO BUILD SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST ACROSS CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS PATTERN
IS STILL CREATING WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART
OF THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW EXITING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67/68 WEST WITH AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG ITS
NORTHERN AND TRAILING EDGE. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST QUICKLY FOLLOWS
AND EXTENDS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE EXITING WAVE IS CREATING A WEAK DIFFLUENT AREA WHICH
IS AIDING IN ENHANCING LOCAL CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS
NOW NEAR 44/45 WEST BASED ON SAT IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SAT DERIVED
WINDS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED BELOW 15 NORTH AND NORTHERNMOST TILT OF AXIS MOVING FASTER
WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO EMBEDDED IN A DENSER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRAILING WAVE AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WAS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS...SOME EVENTUALLY
REACHED THE NORTH AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PREVIOUS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PRESENT VAD
WIND PROFILE SUGGEST LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS.THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. QUICK EARLY MORNING
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS. DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE
LOCAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

STILL EXPECTING A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SO FAR MODELS SUGGEST DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. FOR NOW LOOKING FOR DRIER AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH BY THAT TIME ANOTHER TUTT IS
FORECAST TO REESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA AND BECOME AMPLIFIED
WHILE DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEW WEEK. FOR NOW WILL JUST MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SEE HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS MONA
PASSAGE/EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 20/15Z.
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20/16Z AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 50 50 50 30
STT 89 80 89 81 / 50 40 40 40

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[Gustywind]

Hey Cyloneye, any link about the dust activity? We should daily post one to give our friends from the islands a better idea of the present situation and what could occur the next days. Agree with that?

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N44W 13N46W 9N47W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N37W 15N46W 10N50W 8N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N70W 16N68W 12N66W...
FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD ISLA LA ORCHILA OF
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...10N27W AND 10N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N35W
TO 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 16N67W
13N65W...FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD LA ISLA
BLANQUILLA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM
PANAMA ALONG 80W TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

[cycloneye]

Hey Cyloneye, any link about the dust activity? We should daily post one to give our friends from the islands a better idea of the present situation and what could occur the next days. Agree with that?

Here is the link and graphic of the Saharan Air Layer.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

[Gustywind]

Hey Cyloneye, any link about the dust activity? We should daily post one to give our friends from the islands a better idea of the present situation and what could occur the next days. Agree with that?

Here is the link and graphic of the Saharan Air Layer.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

Tkanks to you Cycloneye . That's a good thing for everbody to monitor carefully the dust activity between Africa and the Lesser or the Greater Antilles:D.

[cycloneye]

It has been like this today here with a gray sky with scattered showers with no sun at all.And is a relativly cool day temperaturewise.

This is in Luquillo beach on NE PR.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N53W TO 17N47W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-54W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE WAVE AS IT REMAINS FAIRLY FREE OF
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N72W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THE WAVE DOES EXHIBIT BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IT CONTINUES MOVING INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N78W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 68W-73W...AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
12N31W TO 08N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N39W TO 07N45W TO 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 16W-21W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N78W CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE WAVE WHICH IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 14N E OF 68W...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 09N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALOFT
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 07N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N
BETWEEN 78W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE...
PASSING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...AND THE SECOND APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
DECENT UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS
OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...AN ITZC
CONNECTION HAS BASICALLY DEVELOPED...ALLOWING RATHER SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FA.
FORTUNATELY...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY...SO THAT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN BRIEFLY
HEAVY...ONLY VERY LIMITED LOW LYING FLOODING HAS OCCURRED. STILL
DO NOT SEE A BIG FLOOD PROBLEM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STILL APPEARS THAT AN
OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ...AND
TJPS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES. THIS WILL CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EXPECT THE WIND
TO REMAIN EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS (AMZ710) AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OF THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 79 89 / 50 50 30 30
STT 80 89 81 90 / 60 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N49W TO 8N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES SEEN IN A BROAD SURGE
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE
AREA OF DUST TO THE N OF THE WAVE IS DAMPENING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
23N80W TO 14N75W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W
SIDE OF A TILTED SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WHICH EXPLAINS THE TILT OF THE
WAVE. THE WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 20N82W. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER
LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY COVERS HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-73W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALSO OVER CUBA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND
FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OR THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER AFRICA NEAR
24N14W TO 11N22W 6N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 6N32W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N42W 8N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 13W-23W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N94W AND 20N82W RESPECTIVELY ARE HELPING
PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE STORMS
ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JAMAICA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES DUE
TO SOME MOISTURE DRAGGED AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL
IN THE ERN ATLC. SOME DUST IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. DUSTY CONDITIONS WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
WAVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After this wet period that ends tommorow,a dry weather pattern will dominate almost all of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
REGION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL
WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD PASSING
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE FA. THE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO THAT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HEAVY...ONLY VERY LIMITED LOW LYING FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ 21/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND WINDS OF AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 15K FEET. THIS
FEATURES AIDED IN THE DEVELOPING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FAST
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS...AND A SAHARA AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL LINES OF QUICK PASSING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
CONTINUED TO MOV WNW AROUND 20 KTS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATL
WATERS N OF PR AND THE NRN VI...AS WELL AS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND
THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS IS GENERATING BRIEF MVFR AND PSBL IFR DUE
TO LOW SCUD LYRS BLO 015K FT AND SCT-BKN CIGS BTW 020-080K FT. FQT
LTGICCC W/STRONG TSTMS CONTD OVR LCL WATERS AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BTW
25-45 KTS BLO 20K FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TJNR AND NRN LEEWARDS
AT LEAST TIL 21/12Z. OCNL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS REMAIN PSBL ESPECIALLY
OVR ERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR IN QUICK PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
THROUGH 21/22Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 1.14 INCHES WAS SET
AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY
20 JUL 2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.98 SET IN 1962.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 88 80 89 81 / 60 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 18N19W TO
10N20W MOVING NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AT THE BASE
OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
17N53W TO 8N55W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N85W TO 15N79W MOVING W NEAR 30 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN. ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 23N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N19W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 15N21W TO 9N38W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 44W-49W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE S COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 74W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 74W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N E OF
70W INCLUDING THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST S
OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TO OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF JAMAICA AND FROM 14N-20N W OF
80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL W OF THE MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THEN
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

[cycloneye]

So far comparing with June when it was mainly dry in San Juan and on many parts of the rest of Puerto Rico,July has been above normal in the rainfall.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        1.14R         0.98 1962   0.17   0.97     0.05
  MONTH TO DATE    4.77                      3.31   1.46     6.92
  SINCE JUN 1      4.93                      7.72  -2.79    20.52
  SINCE JAN 1     30.48                     26.40   4.08    40.38