STORM2K

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:41 pm**

NDG the 12ZNAM is showing a 16 inch bullseye right over the Low Country of the Southeast Atlantic Coastal plain from near Savannah to Charleston, SC. NAM also shows a potential swath of 3-6 inches from North Florida into South Georgia and into South Carolina.

NAM is definitely the most aggressive of the models

However, the NAM model is pretty good with winter time features and synoptics, especially in the short term..Also, the NAM performed very well with the surprise Southeast U.S. winter storm just over three weeks ago.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:41 pm**

NDG wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Local met calling for flurries possible mixing in

For our area?
I think the chances are slim to none, the sounding forecast by the GFS does not support it. People around here think that because temps are in the 40s with light drizzle they think that it is light flurries falling down when the freezing level is a good 9k feet above the ground and the lower atmosphere is solidly saturated for wet bulb cooling not to take into effect.

Multiple news stations have posted about it and said the chance is there so I guess we shall see.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:56 pm**

The GFS and CMC models bring another arctic front week after next. Looks like the cold pattern is locked in.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:07 pm**

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

NDG the 12ZNAM is showing a 16 inch bullseye right over the Low Country of the Southeast Atlantic Coastal plain from near Savannah to Charleston, SC. NAM also shows a potential swath of 3-6 inches from North Florida into South Georgia and into South Carolina.

NAM is definitely the most aggressive of the models

However, the NAM model is pretty good with winter time features and synoptics, especially in the short term..Also, the NAM performed very well with the surprise Southeast U.S. winter storm just over three weeks ago.

At least back during the Dec 8th the NAM had support from both the CMC and Euro which had forecasted the event a good 5 days prior to it with the GFS joining in within the 3 day range, I followed that event closely with my friends back in SE LA.
This time around the NAM is almost alone with support from the rest of the models, the Euro is the only one with a light dusting over parts of northern FL and SE GA.
I guess the track of the low pressure forming off of FL will play a large role of who sees snow.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:13 pm**

gatorcane wrote:The GFS and CMC models bring another arctic front week after next. Looks like the cold pattern is locked in.

The below average temps will continue but I am sure the continuing +NAO will help central & S FL from getting into the deep freeze could be a lot worst if the NAO would had been negative.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:32 pm**

NDG wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

NDG the 12ZNAM is showing a 16 inch bullseye right over the Low Country of the Southeast Atlantic Coastal plain from near Savannah to Charleston, SC. NAM also shows a potential swath of 3-6 inches from North Florida into South Georgia and into South Carolina.

NAM is definitely the most aggressive of the models

However, the NAM model is pretty good with winter time features and synoptics, especially in the short term..Also, the NAM performed very well with the surprise Southeast U.S. winter storm just over three weeks ago.

At least back during the Dec 8th the NAM had support from both the CMC and Euro which had forecasted the event a good 5 days prior to it with the GFS joining in within the 3 day range, I followed that event closely with my friends back in SE LA.
This time around the NAM is almost alone with support from the rest of the models, the Euro is the only one with a light dusting over parts of northern FL and SE GA.
I guess the track of the low pressure forming off of FL will play a large role of who sees snow.

Yes, the track of the intensifying Low Pressure is going to be probably the most important factor for sure. I have touched on this at length on this thread and the Deep South Thread as well.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:58 pm**

It is 36 and drizzling in Gainesville, baaaaaaby. :cold:

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:04 pm**

NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS and CMC models bring another arctic front week after next. Looks like the cold pattern is locked in.

The below average temps will continue but I am sure the continuing +NAO will help central & S FL from getting into the deep freeze could be a lot worst if the NAO would had been negative.

This is a great point. we really are lucking relative to what could have happened with cold favored teleconnections. Nevertheless it really is lousy out there today and reminds me why I cheer above normal temps in the Winter. It looks a warm up will begin on Sunday so at least there is an end in sight.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:05 pm**

Here is the latest 12z GFS MOS guidance forecasted lows over the next few Mornings

Tallahassee
Tues 22, Wed 23, Thurs 24, Frid 23, Saturday 24

Jacksonville
Tues 25, Wed 34, Thurs 27, Frid 24, Saturday 29

Orlando
Tues 43, Wed 49, Thurs 33, Frid 34, Saturday 38

Tampa
Tues 41, Wed 48, Thurs 38, Frid 36, Saturday 38

Ft Myers
Tues 50, Wed 54, Thurs 40, Frid 40, Saturday 40

Miami
Tues 62, Wed 62, Thurs 47, Frid 44, Saturday 50

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:10 pm**

Wow latest ECMWF has joined the GFS and CMC models with the next arctic surge in 8-10 days. Looks like Central Florida gets swiped in the long-range. Plenty of time for runs to go colder or warmer on this but bears watching.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:35 pm**

A neighbor said she saw snow flurries for 2 minutes an hour ago, while NAS Jax is reporting light snow and rain embedded in fog. Fingers crossed for Wednesday.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:35 pm**

Light snow is being reported at the Jacksonville Naval Air Station. They are right on the river and last 2 p.m. on from there they were at 39 degrees.

I have yet to see any flurries here in North Jacksonville, but it is very cold . Light drizzle 36 degrees here with north wind gusting up the 25 mph at times. Wind chill temps in the upper 20s.. :cold:

I will be watching very closely for any flurries here, but the fact we are already getting frozen precip reports this afternoon may be a sign for what is to come over the next 48-60 hours.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:43 pm**

Update: There's currently snow flurries embedded in drizzle at my locale (Fruit Cove). Though its near or at 39 degrees.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:57 pm**

northjaxpro wrote:Light snow is being reported at the Jacksonville Naval Air Station. They are right on the river and last 2 p.m. on from there they were at 39 degrees.

I have yet to see any flurries here in North Jacksonville, but it is very cold . Light drizzle 36 degrees here with north wind gusting up the 25 mph at times. Wind chill temps in the upper 20s..

I will be watching very closely for any flurries here, but the fact we are already getting frozen precip reports this afternoon may be a sign for what is to come over the next 48-60 hours.

It must be an automated sensor and not verified by a human, it has been reporting light snow for the past 2 hours when no other stations around it are reporting snow.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:02 pm**

We're getting very fine drizzle here which looks like snow...especially if one is still loaded from last night.. I'm sure glad I collected a good pile of firewood yesterday during the pleasant weather.. Chili and cornbread on the docket..

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:43 pm**

Well, radar was showing snow around Jax. Though it was probably not touching the ground or in some places it was.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:49 pm**

Well, the precip has finally stopped here at my locale and I did not see any flurries here at my house. I did speak to one of the mets at the NWS Jax office and they have had several eyewitness reports of flurries in the area. So apparently these are valid reports.

We will have plenty of this on Wednesday for sure. What a day that is potentially shaping up to be.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:01 pm**

@NWSJacksonville
3m3 minutes ago
More
Reports of snow today across northeast Florida from sensors are erroneous. It is just too warm aloft (see attached image). Winter weather chances will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday! #flwx

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:10 pm**

For the first time in quite awhile the 6-10 day outlook shows normal temps over Florida and the 8-14 day continues to show a return to above normal conditions. My NWS forecast shows a high in the low 70's a week from now as well which would be right on target. In addition, the persistent arctic cold across the north is poised to relent with even the frozen tundra of Cleveland expected to break freezing next Monday.. relief is on the way we just need to get through this week.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:12 pm**

StormingB81 wrote:@NWSJacksonville
3m3 minutes ago
More
Reports of snow today across northeast Florida from sensors are erroneous. It is just too warm aloft (see attached image). Winter weather chances will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday! #flwx

It is very easy to confuse drizzle with light flurries/frozen precip. When i lived up north the only foolproof method was to stand outside with a glove or other dark object and look for snow grains bouncing off

STORM2K

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