Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Don't see a HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG very often. Looks mostly south of DFW. Moderate extending down towards San Antonio. The main event should be mostly tonight and tomorrow for this area, I guess.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the band may have chosen its spot to camp out. Might not move for a while.

[HockeyTx82]

Had some building flooding on the UNT campus last night.

Copious amounts of rain.

Sounds like that part of Mexico where Patricia will make land fall is quite populated.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tho ... li=AAa0dzB

"Those on the coast will be in the most danger, especially people living in the state of Jalisco, which has a population of more than 7.3 million, he said."

Prayers that everyone stays safe.

[Brent]

I just dumped my rain gauge, it was full at over 5 inches...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Update from my house, now at 4.32" for the day and 6.58" since yesterday.

[weatherdude1108]

Rain coming down nicely at work right now in north Austin.

[gboudx]

Looks like the band may have chosen its spot to camp out. Might not move for a while.

Looks like what weatherdude posted about yesterday.

Our local weatherman showed a big swath of 5"-10" rains for the area. He even showed a 25.5" bullseye around Waco. He said he has never seen that much rain on a model before. He said that means it is picking up on something.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Flash Flood Watch issued all areas effective Saturday morning through Monday morning

Gale Watch issued all coastal waters Saturday evening into Sunday

Coastal Flood Watch issued 700pm Saturday…this will replace the coastal flood advisory at that time…upgrade to a warning is likely on Sunday.

Highlights:

Rainfall: 5-7 inches with isolated amounts of 9-12 inches
Tides: 4-5 ft above normal possibly 5-6 ft
Winds: 35-50mph offshore, 35-40mph coast, 30-40mph inland

Timing: onset of heavy rainfall midday Saturday. Conditions worsen Saturday late afternoon into overnight in Sunday.

This will not be a name tropical system…but impacts will be similar to a tropical storm

Hurricane Patricia Update:
First pass of recon shows pressure of 878mb with 61kts of wind (not a center pressure). Max flight level winds 220mph. Hurricane is likely still around 200-205mph sustained winds and should strike the coast between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. Damage within 30 miles either side of the eye will be catastrophic with likely few any (even well built) buildings surviving. Northern edge eyewall will likely begin to cross the coast in the next few hours. Sustained winds of 180-200mph will last between 5-6 hours.

[Portastorm]

Is it still looking like the Austin-area will get some of the heavier stuff?

Not really. GFS backing down now on several runs of rainfall totals through the weekend. Maybe we get 2-3" average overall. Heaviest stuff appears to hit the Metroplex and areas to our northwest and later this weekend the coastal plains into the Houston-Galveston-Beaumont area. I've been saying it all along. The hype in the Austin area by the media and others has bordered on irresponsible. One model run showing crazy numbers doesn't make a forecast. This has always been a complicated picture and Patricia's ultimate movement will dictate where the heaviest rains go tomorrow into Sunday. It is still possible we could see some heavy rain. But the aforementioned areas have a much better shot at it than we do IMO.

[CaptinCrunch]

with all the rain total reports coming in I would say the models were pretty much spot on. With 3" to 5" already being reported across NTX and we still have a day and a half of rain fall to go the 7" to 10" range now seems very likely with isolated areas of higher amounts South of the DFW area.

[weatherdude1108]

Is it still looking like the Austin-area will get some of the heavier stuff?

Not really. GFS backing down now on several runs of rainfall totals through the weekend. Maybe we get 2-3" average overall. Heaviest stuff appears to hit the Metroplex and areas to our northwest and later this weekend the coastal plains into the Houston-Galveston-Beaumont area. I've been saying it all along. The hype in the Austin area by the media and others has bordered on irresponsible. One model run showing crazy numbers doesn't make a forecast. This has always been a complicated picture and Patricia's ultimate movement will dictate where the heaviest rains go tomorrow into Sunday. It is still possible we could see some heavy rain. But the aforementioned areas have a much better shot at it than we do IMO.

Hype has been on the back of my mind since the forecasting of this event started. I think there is a lot of "jumping on the gun" that goes on when a model says something way in advance of the actual start time. Then you have stuff like exploding hurricane Patricia, which always throws a wrench in the data. I don't know if there is a model that is accurate enough to predict something like that, that happens so quickly. I wouldn't want their jobs. That's for sure. Too many outlets make judgement calls based on their forecasts.

I think they should have just stuck with something like, "At this time, general total 2-3 inch amounts possible, with isolated pockets of 5 inches or more possible if training sets up" or something to that effect(?). Then they can change it based on observations. Maybe they do that already. Thankless job, but a lot of people depend on them for their accuracy.

[Ralph's Weather]

Heavy rain setting up from Waco to Texarkana for this afternoon. Just light rain in Tyler, but looks like my house about 15 miles NW is getting pounded, very sharp southern gradient.

[vbhoutex]

2pm from Jeff Lindner:

Increasing confidence that SE TX is going to have some significant impacts over the weekend from a developing storm along the TX coast helped by the remains hurricane Patricia.



Main threats will be excessive rainfall and high coastal tides both of which will likely cause some degree of flooding.



Rainfall:

Confidence that heavy rainfall axis will end up somewhere across SE TX from midday Saturday to late Sunday evening or even Monday morning. Rainfall totals widespread of 5-7 inches with isolated amounts of 10-12 inches will be possible. Where exactly the heavy rain falls is still a question, but models have been trending toward the US 59 corridor including Harris County. It is still possible that the heaviest rains could remain offshore or to the NW of Harris County.



Rainfall of the expected magnitude will cause flooding even with the dry grounds. Of concern is the potential for hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches and this type of rainfall continuing in training bands for a few to several hours. Watersheds can handle several inches of rainfall due to the dry conditions, but amounts toward the higher end of the expect totals will likely cause some problems.



A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Saturday morning until Monday morning.



Tides:

Still expecting tides of 4.0-5.0 ft above MLLW Saturday afternoon and evening into Sunday morning. Water levels of this heights will have impacts around Clear Lake including Nassau Bay and Clear Lake Shores as well as portions of Kemah and Seabrook. This will mainly result in street flooding and flooding under elevated structures.



Minor flooding will also be possible in Shoreacres along Taylor’s Bayou and near the Battleship Texas and the Lynchburg Ferry Landing. Elevated tides will also push northward up the lower portion of the San Jacinto River.



Any increase in the intensity of the surface low forming over the TX coastal waters will only increase these expected tides levels a little more and values of 45.0-6.0 ft are possible.



A coastal Flood Watch has been issued by the NWS to cover the possible flooding at times of high tide and this will likely be upgraded to a warning on Saturday.



HCFCD Actions:

· Clear Creek Second Outlet Gates will be opened this afternoon which will help expedite storm run-off out of Clear Lake.

· HCFCD Flood Operations Team will move to Stand By Mode at 200pm Saturday.

· HCFCD Flood Operations staff will be at Transtar effective at 200pm and at HCFCD offices effective at 600pm Saturday (possibly sooner based on conditions). 12-hr shifts will be in effect until Monday.

· Myself and Kim Jackson will support media operations at HCOEM and Karen Hastings will be helping in the JIC

· 3 HCFCD crews will be deployed at 200pm Saturday to check coastal water levels and possible flooding impacts in SE Harris County.

· HCFCD Phone Bank will be established at 600pm Saturday and can be reached at 713-684-4000

· I will be into NWS Chat by 230pm Saturday through the duration of this event along with Twitter updates @jefflindner1 and @hcfcd, along with the usual e-mail updates.

[davidiowx]

[TheProfessor]

Yall on yhe coast might be in for a bumpy ride, could the storm actually strengthen (non tropical wise) over water?

[ROCK]

this is all I need to know.

Highlights:

Rainfall: 5-7 inches with isolated amounts of 9-12 inches
Tides: 4-5 ft above normal possibly 5-6 ft
Winds: 35-50mph offshore, 35-40mph coast, 30-40mph inland

Timing: onset of heavy rainfall midday Saturday. Conditions worsen Saturday late afternoon into overnight in Sunday.

This will not be a name tropical system…but impacts will be similar to a tropical storm

[newman22]

I think Hwy 59 will get the heaviest rain all the way to Houston. The latest map on noaa shows 15 inches for edna to houston

[dhweather]

I-45 CLOSED at the Navarro/Ellis county line per TXDOT. Likely closed until at least noon tomorrow, high water.


Edit - TXDOT just tweeted

Standing water on I-45 in Navarro County has traffic moving very slowly in both directions, but road is passable.

[ROCK]

15 inches wow!

[gboudx]

In Heath:

July 1 - October 20: 1.59"

The last 10 hours: 4.17"

Curious what your total is now. My lowes gauge shows about 5.7". This is total from yesterday to 4:30 today.