Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:17 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
19N73W TO 11N74W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT EVEN UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES
GIVE SOME INDICATION THAT THE WAVE IS PRESENT DUE TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EXTREME SRN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS
MODERATE VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
70W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THAN THE ACTUAL WAVE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N32W TO 8N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
16W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-41W.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
19N73W TO 11N74W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT EVEN UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES
GIVE SOME INDICATION THAT THE WAVE IS PRESENT DUE TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EXTREME SRN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS
MODERATE VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
70W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THAN THE ACTUAL WAVE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N32W TO 8N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
16W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-41W.