STORM2K

gatorcane wrote:Latest GFS with a freeze deep into the peninsula Wed night

Yeah, the 6Z GFS had the freeze line down to the I-4 corridor for next Thursday morning. We will see if later runs continue to trend colder by middle of next week.

12Z GFS going with a freeze all the way down to Ft. Myers on the 12Z run with a prolonged stretch of below normal temps for the peninsula starting Saturday.

You know the drill folks! The GFS will likely warmup for next Thursday morning within the next few days as we get into the more trustworthy 3-5 day range. I’d be surprised if it was as cold (especially colder) than last week, but you can’t rule it out just yet.

My how the worm has turned. 4 of the next 7 days on my NWS forecast feature highs under 60 the coldest of which is 54! Compared that to a normal of 70 and you can see we are headed for yet another stretch of well below normal temps which will likely feature a freeze threat (s) down into the peninsula. And I say this as a certified hater of cold

Strong +PNA continues and it appears that this will remain like this for the rest of this month at least. This has been the theme so far this winter, and that has in a big way help to offset the +NAO. Also, we have had -AO as well to this juncture.18Z GFS showing a very strong and massive 1054 mb Arctic High dropping down into North Dakota and Minnesota on Monday. Both GFS and EURO are showing just brutally cold arctic air along the U.S.- Canada border(temps -10s to -20s) from Siberia just poised to affect the CONUS next week. So, should that HP verify, it will be one of the strongest Arctic Highs to drop down into the Northern Tier of the CONUS and eventually into the Eastern CONUS next week. This helps explains why the models have trended much colder for next 7-10 days.

Yeah, gang, today's model runs have indeed trended colder for most of next week. Old Man Winter is hanging around for this winter season compared to previous years for sure!

Looks like the spine of the peninsula has had sea breeze showers which is an oddity this time of year, but by next week am expecting a cold shot very similar to the last one with that high moving out of Canada but any difference in how far south it gets or if it weakens some will give us idea how cold it will get

Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the spine of the peninsula has had sea breeze showers which is an oddity this time of year, but by next week am expecting a cold shot very similar to the last one with that high moving out of Canada but any difference in how far south it gets or if it weakens some will give us idea how cold it will get

Yep. Just today after 1pm there was towering cumulonimbus clouds over the gulf stream associated with some intense shower activity offshore. Very summer like!

I have highlighted in red what the same GFS now shows for lows this weekend into next week, teleconnections do not agree with such cold air the models were or are showing to visit central and south FL over the next few days with now the Euro forecasting lows in the mid 20s for I-4 corridor next Thursday morning, which is laughable with ensembles still showing PNA to go negative next week and for the NAO to stay positive.

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS lows for I-4 corridor:

Sat night 1/13: low 40s upper 30s-low 40s
Sun night 1/14: mid 30s low-mid 40s
Mon night 1/15: low 40s mid 40s
Tues night 1/16: upper 30s mid 40s
Wed night 1/17: mid 40s mid 30s

As you can see the 00z Euro has the freezing line into South Florida next Thursday morning seeping into inland northern Palm Beach County which seems overdone.

NWS Miami is forecasting nowhere near freezing temps for South Florida. Given that the PNA looks like it's going to tank in a few days, along with a neutral NAO, seems reasonable to not expect *that* much.

NDG wrote:I have highlighted in red what the same GFS now shows for lows this weekend into next week, teleconnections do not agree with such cold air the models were or are showing to visit central and south FL over the next few days with now the Euro forecasting lows in the mid 20s for I-4 corridor next Thursday morning, which is laughable with ensembles still showing PNA to go negative next week and for the NAO to stay positive.

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS lows for I-4 corridor:

Sat night 1/13: low 40s upper 30s-low 40s
Sun night 1/14: mid 30s low-mid 40s
Mon night 1/15: low 40s mid 40s
Tues night 1/16: upper 30s mid 40s
Wed night 1/17: mid 40s mid 30s

Latest GFS has gone colder for Wed and Thu nights with the freeze line down south of the I-4 corridor almost to Ft. Myers. Still not as cold as the Euro though.

gatorcane wrote:

NDG wrote:I have highlighted in red what the same GFS now shows for lows this weekend into next week, teleconnections do not agree with such cold air the models were or are showing to visit central and south FL over the next few days with now the Euro forecasting lows in the mid 20s for I-4 corridor next Thursday morning, which is laughable with ensembles still showing PNA to go negative next week and for the NAO to stay positive.

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS lows for I-4 corridor:

Sat night 1/13: low 40s upper 30s-low 40s
Sun night 1/14: mid 30s low-mid 40s
Mon night 1/15: low 40s mid 40s
Tues night 1/16: upper 30s mid 40s
Wed night 1/17: mid 40s mid 30s

Latest GFS has gone colder for Wed and Thu nights with the freeze line down south of the I-4 corridor almost to Ft. Myers. Still not as cold as the Euro though.

https://s13.postimg.org/uzim9j9dz/gfs_T2m_seus_25.png

At 144 hr time frame it still has room for it to adjust back to warmer numbers, is the trend I am banking on. IMO.

I love it that you are sticking with your gut instincts NDG lol..

I just went through this myself just a couple of weeks ago when I trusted the GFS about the magnitude of that recent prolonged cold spell at the start of 2018 and guess what, my instincts were correct.

So, I learned years ago in this business, sometimes you roll the dice .... Let's see how it goes.

Check out the GFS long-range - it says winter is staying around for Florida for a while with brief moderation inbetween this week's cold. Brings yet another freeze into Central Florida.

The 12Z Euro looks quite cold again for Wed-Thu but on tropicaltidbits we only get every 24 hours. Between 120 and 144 is the coldest. Does anybody have the low temps for Wed night for the 12Z Euro run?

Looks like the German model ICON may beat the CMC for its craziness:

Yeah, the German model has really gone into the Deep Freeze . WOW. I agree that it will be much colder next week, but the GFS is really going extreme. I think one important element that the GFS is figuring into the equation is that we may have an added snow pack in areas of the Deep South middle of next week. Latest GFS is currently latching onto a potential winter storm to possibly impact the Deep South middle of next week. That would certainly keep the arctic air mass from moderating much if the discover would be in place. More later...

The GFS 12z shows snow in the Florida panhandle at hour 120.

boca wrote:The GFS 12z shows snow in the Florida panhandle at hour 120.

Yeah, we have been discussing this potential in the Deep South Winter Thread as well.

Found the 12Z Euro temp map. Looks like it is about the same as the 00Z with the freeze line down into South Florida (West Palm Beach) and mid 20sF for I-4 corridor including Tampa and Orlando:



Reference:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 1200z.html