STORM2K

Looks like the Euro and German model are all alone with showing that kind of cold down well into the Florida peninsula for next Thursday morning. Heck, not even the crazy Canadian model shows that level of cold!

I am banking on that as we get closer in time the Euro will start dropping those 20s for lows across central FL, it did the same with last week's forecast, at one time it was forecasting lows in the 20s all the way down to Lake Okeechobee a few days before the event.

Local mets are going with the GFS. No surprise in that. They have only 50's for lows end of next week.

Regardless, these extended cold spells have been nice. Absolutely love this weather. And it looks like this cooldown will last at least another week.

And I keep saying how lucky we have been that the NAI has not gone negative otherwise we would had seen temps as cold if not colder than Dec 2010.

Isn't the NAO usually positive most of the time.

Looks like the Euro finally caved and no longer has 20s for Central Florida. In fact looks like it keeps Central Florida above freezing now. Good call NDG.

boca wrote:Isn't the NAO usually positive most of the time.

It all has to do with pattern over all, some years is mostly positive while other years is mostly negative like 2010 as an example, why that year there were some many recurves during the Hurricane season.

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the Euro finally caved and no longer has 20s for Central Florida. In fact looks like it keeps Central Florida above freezing now. Good call NDG.

Yeah is a good 7-10 degrees warmer than previous runs.

The Euro clearly has a bias of overdoing cold in the long run. Nevertheless my forecast shows temps 5-15 degrees below average for the next week...yet another impressive stretch of below normal conditions. right now it's 54 @ KPIE with a stout wind and cloudy condtions...ok for a brisk walk provided you have a jacket but definitely not the type of weather people flock to florida for.

NWS Miami isn't calling for anything lower than 50 degrees, with winds quickly turning around to the NE. That makes a lot of sense, with a positive NAO and PNA looking to slide. Winds will be making it feel pretty chilly though.

It would appear that starting this weekend the warmup begins for all of Florida and with no sign of any arctic fronts in the foreseeable future. In fact it looks like the SE ridge may want to return in the long-range GFS guidance. Now it never really got cold here along the SE coast of Florida this time thanks to a wind vector that was just enough NNE to modify the airmass as Patrick99 points out.

Maybe the SE ridge will be progressive and not cancel our so called Sudo winter. I hope the ridge doesn't become a semi permanent feature for the rest of the winter.Gatorcane said that their isn't any cold fronts on the horizon after this one on Wednesday.

There was some mention of the possibility of a Greenland Block setting up within the next 2 weeks or so, especially if the NAO/AO go negative and the PNA goes positive like it looks it may do so come the very end of the month just in time to kick off February. If I had to guess when we may see more cool/cold weather at least, I'd say the beginning of February.

TheStormExpert wrote:There was some mention of the possibility of a Greenland Block setting up within the next 2 weeks or so, especially if the NAO/AO go negative and the PNA goes positive like it looks it may do so come the very end of the month just in time to kick off February. If I had to guess when we may see more cool/cold weather at least, I'd say the beginning of February.

Hopefully. We are (South Florida, especially) fast approaching that time of year where we need to start savoring every little bit of cooler air we can get.

The GFS has been gradually trending colder for Thursday morning the last several runs with the latest 12z run having the freezing line ever so close to SW Florida and Ft. Myers. This will likely be a good example of how the west coast of Florida will likely be a good 5-10 degrees colder than a location at the same latitude on the east coast due to the winds quickly shifting more easterly.

Interesting that the GFS is trending a little colder each run and we are only 2-3 days away now. Wed night looks to be the coldest night of the winter season for Central and SW Florida and it is possible this could end up being a widespread freeze event for the I-4 corridor including Tampa and Orlando. Seems this event is going under the radar on here at least with not much commentary despite possibly the coldest night Central and SW Florida has seen in years!

By the way the German model ICON insists a deep freeze but clearly this must be overdone:

Oh no Gatorcane. This cold outbreak is not under the radar for yours truly. I pointed out the massive Arctic High (now at 1048 mb) GFS had long range dropping down into North Dakota last weekend and pushing south by the middle of this week. This is the strongest Arctic High coming down this season to this juncture.

Latest projections now calling for near 20 degrees over the Big Bend region and low-mid 20s across interior North and Northeast Florida by Thursday morning.MOS showing upper teens over in the Panhandle i.e. Crestview.

The potential is definitely there for much of the Florida peninsula to see the coldest temperatures of the season to date on Thursday morning.

I'm already looking forward to the warmup this weekend and beyond.

northjaxpro wrote:Oh no Gatorcane. This cold outbreak is not under the radar for yours truly. I pointed out the massive Arctic High (now at 1048 mb) GFS had long range dropping down into North Dakota last weekend and pushing south by the middle of this week. This is the strongest Arctic High coming down this season to this juncture.

Latest projections now calling for near 20 degrees over the Big Bend region and low-mid 20s across interior North and Northeast Florida by Thursday morning.MOS showing upper teens over in the Panhandle i.e. Crestview.

The potential is definitely there for much of the Florida peninsula to see the coldest temperatures of the season to date on Thursday morning.

Yeah northjaxpro you have been on top of things things this winter season so far!

12Z Euro low temp map for Florida is showing temps a bit colder than NWS offices are showing for Wed night / Thu morning across the I-4 corridor.



source:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 1200z.html